One Last Bear Rampage for 2022: Semiconductors

Looking at the ascent on some of these, I think I might go 10 percent or more OTM on options. My expepctation is they will descend faster than they ascended. KLAC gained 57 percent from low to high in barely more than one month. My expectation is it will trade at a new low, which would require a minimum loss of 365 percent. TSM doesn't have the greatest chart, but it gained 40 percent in two weeks. Likely to lose it all as fast, if not faster.

We've Only Just Begun

I am strolling through the charts and seeing areas of the market that haven't even completed tops yet. It took 5 minutes of looking at charts to find these, this is the top of my giant pile of charts. And by top, I don't mean the best, though some are great. I mean I made it through only a sliver of all my watchlists and had enough charts for a short video.

Off the Beaten Path: Based Miners

SMI has already broken out, posting simply as an update. Not an area I'd be chasing.

I still like Maritime Resources. I believe the stock is caught in a "doom loop" where investors are selling because they expect dilution. As the price drops, the dilution becomes larger, more investors sell and so on. I pray they do not fund the mine down at these levels, but instead wait for either strong drill results or a rebound in the gold price. If either of those situations unfold, then it will flip into a virtuous cycle where the value of the mine rises, the stock price rises, the needed dilution falls. I also expect there will be a "goldilocks" window opening for all gold mining stocks, similar to spring 2020, where energy prices are down, labor and material supplies for mine construction will be available and the gold price will be high. Navigating this opportunity will separate many winners from losers.

STM Slowed by Coronavirus

iFeng: 全球芯片重地疫情失控：芯片大厂上百人感染 20多人死亡

ST Microelectronics Malaysia - don’t put profit before workers’ safety