Lending Tree Again

New low. Bombs away.

TREE

Another one at an interesting juncture.

Timbbbbeeerrr

Chop It Down

Lending Tree loses longg-term support. Another piece of ARKK's glorious portfolio. This is a test of whether we're transitioning into a bear market this year. TREE should breakdown here. If the bull market is intact, should be a rippig rally next week. I'm taking the short-side because I play this stuff for the asymmetric returns.

ARKK the Retail Roach Motel

Do or Die for the ARKK Shorts

The dreaded h-pattern is in place. Hell for bulls or bears will swiftly follow. ARKK itself is much earlier in the pattern, but underlying holdings that I shorted along with ARKK are closer to completion, with BLI closest to a breakdown. TREE is already broken down, but battling around around a suppurt area. If it doesn't hold here, firmer support is around $190.

What I Shorted Today

Bought some puts today. ARKK. The latter two I like as illiquid holdings within ARKK. TREE has a massive topping pattern to boot. It's going to collapse if it gets under $190, support likely in the $190 to $200 area. BLI is a recent IPO, also has cheap puts relative to how much the stock moved in the last down leg.

One that I like on the downside, but didn't short: SHOP. I think support is around $900 if it goes big.

Instead of SHOP, I have puts on Amazon instead because I like the risk reward better. The fuscia line is former resistance from 2000 high to 2018 high. Amazon is very close to losing it and I suspect the first potential resistance area is $2600 or lower.

To summarize: I suspect VIX bottomed. I suspect the macroenvironment for tech has turned. The Fed will not stop the rise in long-term rates lest it sink the market and economy. It will sacrifice tech for inflation. INDU is the boss now. I also believe bulls have heavily bought the dip. The stimulus has been front-run. BTC spiked and then pulled back, perhaps that's the top or at least a tradable one. Stocks such as MSTR are looking as if investors do not believe BTC will keep rising. I didn't trade the 2000 top, but remember the relentless fall in tech, and going back over the news from then, it feels similar with the "buy the dip" mentality in full force. My puts are for April. I'm looking for a big initial break. I do not believe the Dow has topped, although the whole market will suffer if tech gets whacked like I expect.