U.S. Dollar Index Approaches the Event Horizon

I'm looking for a rebound in DXY given the prior cycles, but the most important component is breaking out of its trading range. Either the dollar is about to experience a meaningful breakdown, or a lot of dollar bears, euro longs, yuan longs, etc. are about to be caught wrong footed. Either way, volatility is coming.

MSCI Warns on Share Halts, BGI Limit Up Again

Companies that halt shares for 50 days or more will be removed from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for at least 12 months.

CNBC: MSCI warns Chinese companies with suspended shares they could get dropped from the emerging markets index

BGI was limit up again on Monday giving it a valuation of $3 billion. As a "castle in the sky" stock it is still very under "valued."


BGI Genomics Limit Up Nine Consecutive Days

Still has a ways to go before it catches Baofeng's streak of 28 days. Baofeng would resume it's limit-up run, ending at 35 of 36 days before being halted. Shares are down more than 80 percent from their 2015 peak.

华大基因 (300676)


Support for Democracy Collapsing

Immigrants from undemocratic countries/cultures have lower support for democratic systems and the ancient rights/traditions of native cultures.

Natives in the West, particularly Anglo-Saxons, prefer liberty to democracy. Democracy was favored because it was seen as the best system for protecting rights. When the population is homogeneous, there are two political parties that both agree on the fundamental rights, traditions and culture of a nation. As diversity increases, there is no consensus. The Anglo-Saxon nations have the highest level of individualism, but as democracy replaces liberty, effectively the only rights you have are what you win in democratic debate. Hence the rapid increase in identity politics as the Venn diagram of "people who support liberty" increasingly overlaps with race and ethnicity.

There are two trends at play. One is non-Western (and non-Anglo-Saxon people in the Anglo countries) who come from collectivist, undemocratic and/or authoritarian cultures. They may openly oppose the native system (Muslims who want Sharia being the latest example) or they will favor policies that benefit the group, even if it erodes the native system. Current progressive politics is openly opposed to traditional Western culture and politics, labeling it things such as "white privilege." Essentially, they are correct: when a nation is overwhelmingly one race or ethnic group, it's system by definition is designed for itself. As diversity increases, so does the number of people who don't "fit" into the system.

The other trend is natives who value liberty/tradition above democracy. People who don't think of their system/culture/tradition as an ethnic/racial system, but as "the way things are." Democracy is seen as illegitimate if it revokes rights or reverses tradition. If this group is losing support for democracy, we should see support for liberty hold up. And that's what the data shows:
Taking the pooled data from Europe and the United States, we find that attitudes toward liberal institutions do not differ radically among different generations. But a liberal conception of democracy is somewhat less entrenched among millenials (born since the 1980s) than their baby-boomer parents (born during the first two decades after the Second World War).
Millennials are a very diverse generation. The decline in liberalism is likely a result of increasingly non-Western people in that cohort, rather than a decline in support among natives.

The American Revolution and Civil War (and earlier civil wars in England) were fought among Anglo-Saxons. The current demographics in the Anglo-Saxon nations argues for a far more combustible situation. Both sides in a conflict may be opposed to democracy.

In a society made up of a growing cohort that opposes liberty and doesn't oppose authoritarian rule (willingly submits to it or isn't motivated enough to oppose it), and another growing cohort that wants to preserve liberty even if it means dumping democracy, one stable point is authoritarian government that protects liberty. Pinochet, Kemalists, the King of England.

Based on the timeline, it appears a nation needs to have the dominant identity group above 80 percent of the population. The nation in worst shape is the United States, headed for below 50 percent for the largest ethnic/racial group.
Even if subsequent research should show that democratic deconsolidation really is underway, this would not mean that any particular democracy would soon collapse. Nor is it obvious that the democracy that had deconsolidated the most would be the first to fail. Regime change is always a matter of accident as well as intention, of historical circumstances as well as structural preconditions. But if democratic deconsolidation were Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk 17 proven to be in progress, it would mean that what was once unthinkable should no longer be considered outside the realm of possibility. As democracies deconsolidate, the prospect of democratic breakdown becomes increasingly likely—even in parts of the world that have long been spared such instability. If political scientists are to avoid being blindsided by the demise of established democracies in the coming decades, as they were by the fall of communism a few decades ago, they need to find out whether democratic deconsolidation is happening; to explain the possible causes of this development; to delineate its likely consequences (present and future); and to ponder the potential remedies.
The quickest and easiest way for a democracy to "deconsolidate" is via political breakup: secession. The United States is well suited for a breakup because much of the political conflict overlaps with geography: the left is concentrated in a few state and urban areas. And as the nation drifts into authoritarianism, support for secession grows on both sides of the political spectrum.

LA Times: Backers of another shot at a 'Calexit' ballot measure can now gather signatures
On Tuesday afternoon, Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra's office released an official title and summary for the initiative, now called the "California Autonomy From Federal Government" initiative.

The proposal, scaled back from an initially more aggressive version, would direct California's governor to negotiate more autonomy from the federal government, including potentially putting forward a ballot measure to declare independence.

The initiative wouldn't necessarily result in California exiting the country, but could allow the state to be a “fully functioning sovereign and autonomous nation” within the U.S.

Backers of the plan, known informally as "Calexit" have 180 days to collect nearly 600,000 valid signatures for the initiative to go on the 2018 ballot.
A long-term decline in social mood will push these trends to the extreme. The odds of a major political reformation in North America and Europe is growing, but even if there's no major akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union, there will be increasing political volatility. The Western nations most likely to avoid chaotic transitions and political volatility are those who oppose migration, have very homogeneous populations and are already being accused of authoritarianism: the nations of Eastern Europe.

Rental Policy Outcome: Land Prices Collapse 90pc in Shanghai

No, the market isn't collapsing (yet?), but reality is setting in. Shanghai sold land rights valued at less than 6,000 yuan per sqm this month. The buyers are state-owned enterprises that will rent and lease the property rather than sell it. Whether this has any long-term effects on the market, it clearly shows how wildly overvalued Chinese real estate is compared to the underlying cash flows. Different parcels of land aren't directly comparable, but Shanghai was selling land with values above 50,000 yuan per sqm in 2016. The "rental only" value of the land substantially lower, possibly as much as 90 percent if the plots are comparable.

This must have a psychological effect on the market even if the government tightens controls. Talk of overvalued property is no longer idle speculation, or shown with non-market examples such as various P/E measures such as home price to average annual income. This is a concrete example of how much a developer is willing to pay if renting is the only option.

Shanghai Daily: Winning plots meant for rental homes
The two blocks of the transaction, one located in Pudong New Area Zhangjiang South, the land area of ​​about 6.5 hectares, can be built construction area of ​​about 130,000 square meters, from Shanghai Zhangjiang (Group) Co., Ltd. race, the transaction price of 724 million Yuan, the transaction floor price of 5569 yuan / square meter; a Jiading District Jiading Metro, the land area of ​​about 2.85 hectares, can be built construction area of ​​7.13 million square meters, from Shanghai Jiading New Town Development Co., Ltd., the transaction price of 4.24 Billion, the transaction floor price of 5950 yuan / square meter. The two plots of the competition, are state-owned enterprises.
An article in iFeng breaks down the numbers, finding the total cost for the developers will be about 12,000 yuan per sqm, at that price they will generate 4.5 percent returns at current rental/lease rates.
From the results of the transaction, it can be described, both in reason, but also unexpected!

Reasonable understanding of the level, because after the two pieces of land has been announced (July 4) to take the only rent not to sell the model, so after the transaction, the two land is mainly used for leasing purposes, which is beyond reproach The

Previously, so that everyone is full of doubt, what will Shanghai how to operate "only rent not sell" mode. If the market in full accordance with the operation, then the real estate developers is difficult only through rental income, cover costs, profit, cash flow level will be affected.

However, today's auction results tell us that we have to worry about (at least storm brother to worry about).

According to reports on the news, we can easily find that the last two auctions of land prices are: Zhangjiang plots, the transaction floor price of 5569 yuan / square meter; Jiading plots: the transaction floor unit price For 5950 yuan / square meter

Maybe a friend would say it was wrong? Is it less a zero? According to the data provided by the news (storm brother count several times), the final floor price is indeed less than 6000.

6,000 yuan floor price, the final developer of the cost of how much?

From the price formula we can roughly calculate it.

According to the price formula: house price = land cost (30%) + development costs (10%) + Jian'an cost (20%) + tax (15%) + profit (25%).

The formula is the real estate developers when selling the formula, and now only rent does not sell mode, has not applicable, especially the profit level was cleared, the tax may also have concessions.

In other words, the new rent only mode, the cost of housing should be: land cost + development costs + Jian'an cost + tax (specifically there will be reduced, tentatively counted as 10%).

The floor price 6000 into the new housing cost formula, then the cost will be about 12,000.

How much is the rental rate?

At present, in Jiading plots around, renting a set of 90 square meters about 4100.

So the calculation, the developers through the rent to recover the cost only need: 21 years! Annual rate of return is about 4.5%.

This rate of return has been able to make developers live very comfortably.
iFeng: 楼市传来大消息!楼面价破6千 炒房客彻底傻眼

New Normal: Chinese Cities Won't Loosen Real Estate Restrictions

The Politburo met on July 24 and discussed stabilizing real estate. Shanghai is the first city to comment policy in its wake.

On July 24, the Politburo meeting proposed "to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to policy continuity and stability, and speed up the establishment of long-term mechanism." The market a number of people in this industry interpreted as, in the real estate long-term mechanism is not introduced before the real estate policy will not loose. And after two days, the first city of Shanghai position, we must strengthen the real estate market regulation unwavering, do not relax, we can see the property market regulation in the second half or the whole will not relax.

Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, July 26 (Xinhua Guo Jingdan) Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Standing Committee of the thirty-ninth meeting (expansion), said Shanghai strict control of high home prices and high land prices is not a stop-gap measure to reduce economic growth, and lowering finance revenues from the real estate industry is not an expedient measure, we must be unwavering in strengthening real estate market regulation unwavering, will not relax.

...Yi Ju Research Director Yan Yue Jin Comments: policy from the tight is the probability, and irregular behavior zero tolerance

From the Shanghai point of view, fully explain the current property market to control the overall situation, which is the necessary means of real estate stability, for the stability of the market expectations and consolidate the past policy is a positive role. Of course, in fact, Shanghai has also been out of the policy, for similar parking spaces and other acts of regulation and control, which also shows that some market participants still do not follow the original policy. So a similar statement also shows that the policy is tight from the probability, and the violation is zero tolerance.

From the recent policy trends, mainly reflected in the stability of the guide, for the stability of housing prices is a positive effect. And the concept of falling house prices, in fact, relatively inadequate, because the market transactions in the second quarter has been weak. The current price decline for an important force is to see whether the housing prices to get to get, if you take the urgency, it will continue to cut prices.

Huatai Securities chief macro researcher Li Chao Comments: the supply side does not effectively play a role before the demand side, including the purchase limit loans, improve the down payment than these measures or the need for a continuous process

First of all, real estate long-term mechanism mechanisms include: the introduction of real estate tax, to provide rental housing and other important initiatives, the most effective solution to the real estate problem or housing construction and land and resources before the release of the document - real estate inventory and land supply linked, which can The supply side can effectively solve the real estate problem, before these policies are not effective play, the demand side includes the purchase limit loan, improve the down payment than these measures may also need a continuous process.
iFeng: 上海表态:加强房地产市场调控不动摇、不放松(解读)


Immigration Restriction is Very Popular

Sixty percent of Americans want immigration cut to zero. And social mood hasn't even bottomed.

LSE: Is tribalism racist? Antiracism norms and immigration
Other work suggests norms not only lead people to frown on voting for the far right, but even prompt them to hide their views on immigration. Using a ‘list experiment’ that measures average sentiment but permits individuals to conceal their answers, Alexander Janus discovered that 60% of White Americans supported cutting immigration to zero when their identities were concealed, compared to 39% when their identities were known to the researcher. Self-censorship was especially pronounced among the university-educated.

Similarly, a recent experiment by Leonardo Bursztyn and colleagues found that 54% of Americans were prepared to donate to an anti-immigration organisation associated with maintaining a white majority if their anonymity was assured. This dropped to 34% among those told that researchers might contact them in a follow-up. Soon after Trump’s victory, however, the difference between the two conditions fell away, suggesting Trump’s win had altered social norms, making it more respectable to express ethnonationalist anti-immigration attitudes.

Free Homes, Money: Second-Tier Cities Fighting for Talent

iFeng: 二线城市发起人才争夺战 给钱给房给户口还不够
Recently, the provincial capital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, "on the further deepening of the implementation of the reform of the household registration system," the proposed migrant workers in the city to participate in urban social insurance for two years, I and immediate family members can be settled in Zhengzhou City Center, College graduates, skilled workers, graduates of vocational colleges, returned overseas students and migrant workers into the town of rural demobilized soldiers settled restrictions.

In addition to Zhengzhou, after that, including Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an, Changsha, including the second-tier core cities, including the introduction of a generous talent policy, these second-tier cities like the agreement is like, focused on the "talent battle."

...Wuhan, "settled in the New Deal" is in the implementation of May 22, to stay in Wuhan entrepreneurial employment of college students, graduated within 3 years without the need to buy a house can apply for settled status, masters and PhD graduates can be directly settled; a month later put forward "support million College students stay in China employment. "

Changsha will be released on June 29, "Talent New Deal 22", the next five years will invest more than 10 billion yuan of funds to attract reserves of 1 million talent; to settle down and work doctorate, master, undergraduate, two years each year, Ranging from rental and living subsidies.

Chengdu on July 2 proposed "Rong bleaching plan", the implementation of "first settled after employment", the implementation of full-time undergraduate and above graduates with graduation certificate settled system; on all types of urgent need to pay talent "Rongcheng talent green card" and so on.

Within a few months, there are including Jinan, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Xiamen, Tianjin, Chongqing and other second-tier cities, also joined the "talent battle."


Dollar Analog Goes to the Wall

The dollar analog is approaching uncharted territory. The DXY has seldom fallen 5-months in a row outside of a bear market. The line in the sand is the support level for the 28-month trading range: 92.62 is the closing low and 91.88 the intraday low.

A breakdown would have major implications for the yuan, since it would greatly alleviate, if not eliminate, depreciation pressure.


The Decline of the University

From the Socionomics Institute:

Overgrown Ivory Towers

There’s a sense of growing unease in academia: University infrastructure is taking a hit.

“U.S. universities have been putting precious money toward financial aid, academic programs and gleaming buildings that might attract new students—neglecting aging electrical systems and leaky roofs. As a result, schools are staring down a deferred maintenance backlog that has topped $40 billion.” (WSJ)

To add insult to injury, many schools are beginning to miss annual enrollment goals, which have declined each school year since 2011. Meanwhile the annual earnings differential between a high-school graduate vs. a college graduate has been shrinking since 2000. In other words, the cost of college attendance ($1.3 trillion in collective student loan debt) is rising as the financial benefits of a degree are falling.

In his prescient study — published long before the recent spate of coverage regarding higher education’s potential demise — socionomist Alan Hall forecast a massive shift in society’s positive attitude toward higher education and the eventual collapse of the credit-fueled, government-supported education bubble. Hall’s analysis goes beyond linear economics to reveal what’s really behind the problems in universities today.

Learn more

Get more free insights like these delivered to your inbox

Interested in learning more? Read these related articles from the Socionomics Institute:

- The Myth of Shocks: An Excerpt from Chapter 1 of The Socionomic Theory
of Finance

- Is the Fog of War Also the Fog of Negative Mood?

- The Mexican Drug War: A Bloody Consequence of Positive Social Mood

- Video - Robert Prechter: Social Causality Is Not Physics

- Learn the Basics of Socionomics

Poland Moves to End Communist Judicial System

Good luck finding an mainstream article that explains why Poland is reforming its judiciary. Almost every article is a one-sided condemnation of the Polish ruling party, labeling the move as an authoritarian power grab. What is the media trying to hide?

USAToday: Poland steps away from democracy, EU in judiciary reforms
However, many Poles support the current powers and actually say these reforms are a divorce from old communist judicial systems.

Tomasz Sakiewicz, the editor-in-chief of right-wing newspaper Gazeta Polska and a supporter of drastic judicial reforms, says these changes aren’t about controlling the judiciary.

“We want to change it, to reform because it comes from communist times,” he says. “It’s completely broken by corruption — a mafia system.”

Sakiewicz says most Poles think the courts need reform. An opinion poll in May found 63 percent of Polish citizens think the judiciary needs to make some serious changes.
The Poles are in the process of decommunization, following in Hungary's path.

Communism (progressivism) is the ruling ideology in the West though. Even the capitalists are against them.

FT: The EU has a moral obligation to act against Poland

WaPo is aghast: This is what the gradual erosion of rule of law looks like in Poland
During the 2015 campaign for parliamentary seats, PiS argued that failing to purge the judiciary of former communists and collaborators is a caricature of justice — and that the court system is precisely where communism remains entrenched.

PiS says it plans to “end Poland’s post-communist era” by transforming the court system. Poland’s court system is a complex four-level hierarchy with regional, district, appellate and the highest court. The Constitutional Tribunal stands separate from this hierarchy, evaluating the government’s legislation.
Poland's government is implementing a policy favored by the majority of the public. It is reforming an undemocratic institution filled with communist ideologues, replacing it with a more democratic system.

There is no real moral argument to be made. If Poland was progressive and reforming a judiciary stuffed with orthodox Catholics, the world media would be cheering the democratic reform, Poland stepping out of its past and into the present. Since it is communists on the losing end, and Catholics on the winning side, it is painted as authoritarianism.

All of this is taking place within the context of deteriorating social mood. The EU's response is to push Poland (and likely all of Eastern Europe) out of the union.

Guardian: Poland may be stripped of EU voting rights over judicial independence
The EU is on the brink of taking the nuclear option of stripping Poland of its voting rights in Brussels in response to plans by its rightwing government to “abolish” the independence of the country’s judiciary.

Frans Timmermans, the first vice-president of the European commission, accused Warsaw of seeking to put judges under full political control as he warned that the EU was “very close” to triggering article 7, a never-before-used sanction in the treaties that allows a member state’s voting rights in the council of ministers to be suspended.

Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice party (PiS) has been in almost constant conflict with the European commission since it was elected. In recent weeks the Polish government has proposed a series of reforms that would give ministers power over the appointment of judges and members of the country’s supreme court.
The EU is still heading for a breakup.


One in Three Bavarians Want Independence

The Local.de: One in three Bavarians want independence from Germany, poll shows
While many stereotypes that foreigners hold of Germany - such as Lederhosen and Oktoberfest - actually come exclusively from Bavaria - local residents will note that the southern, alpine state often feels a world away from the rest of the country.

The state with its own dialect and cultural traditions even has its own independence movement party - the Bavarian Party - albeit less influential than separatist groups in places like Spain or Scotland.

But a new survey looks to bolster the Bavarian Party’s hopes for a true Free State of Bavaria (the state’s official title). A YouGov poll with Bild tabloid, published online on Sunday, showed that one-third of Bavarian respondents agreed that “my state should be independent from Germany”.

Turkey Still Stirring Up Trouble

ZH: Germany Warns Its Citizens: They Risk Arrest If Traveling To Turkey
Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Germany had revised its travel advice in the wake of the recent arrests of several human rights activists, including German national Peter Steudtner.

Steudtner “was no Turkey expert – he never wrote about Turkey, he had no contacts in the political establishment … and never appeared as a critic,” Gabriel told reporters.

He added that this meant that any German national travelling to Turkey could suffer the same fate.
ZH: Greek President Blasts Erdogan After Turkish Harassment: "Provocations Are Sign Of Weakness, Come & Get It!"
While Pavlopoulos’ helicopter was heading to islet Panagia, pilots received warning calls and threats from the Turkish armed forces. The Turks claimed the Greeks that they were flying in Turkish Flight Information Region. The Greek delegation ignored the Turkish warnings and the President landed safe in Panagia.

A day earlier, the Turkish armed forces called the Greek helicopters nearing the island of Rhodes to leave the area as “they were flying in a demilitarized zone” where such flights are forbidden. The Greek pilots did not respond to the callings from the Turkish side.

A little later, the Turkish side called on the pilots of Shinook to leave the area as they were flying inside “the Turkish FIR.” On board were President Pavlopoulos, Defense Minister Panos Kammenos as well as the military leadership of the country.

In one incident, the military helicopters transporting Pavlopoulos suffered radio interference from Turkey.

Wednesday morning, a pair of Turkish F4 fighter jets entered the Athens Flight Information Region at 10 a.m. between Lesvos and Lemnos and flew over the Fournoi islets at 8,900 feet.


China Ramps Up Central Planning

Bloomberg: Xi's Risk-Off Push Ripples Through China as Transition Nears
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that the banking regulator had told lenders to lower interest rates on wealth-management products, a popular vehicle for domestic savers, after yields in the $4 trillion industry jumped in past months. Officials also extended their campaign against risky overseas acquisitions, with conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group Co. coming under scrutiny after a deals spree.

...Some Chinese lenders received an order from the China Banking Regulatory Commission earlier this month to lower their rates on WMPs, according to people familiar with the matter. The requirement applies to on-balance sheet WMPs, which account for only about a fifth of the total market, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified as the matter isn’t public.

...An editorial in the Communist Party’s People Daily newspaper on Monday pointed to the seriousness of the campaign, warning of potential "gray rhinos" -- a variation on the black swan events popularized during the global financial crisis, with the difference that the danger from a charging rhino is more immediate and the animals are less rare.


NBS Spins June Home Price Rise: At Least the YoY Number Declined

China's NBS had to spin the 0.67 percent national increase in home prices in June by showing the year-on-year increase for May 2017 was higher than June 2017. June's one-month rise was only slightly behind May's 0.74 percent increase.

Buying restrictions in the top-tier are working: the total price increase for the four an Xiamen was 0.06 percent of the national total. The seven second-tier "hot" cities from 2016 only accounted for 3.6 percent of the total.

New home prices in Harbin rose 1.6 percent, Chongqing 1.5 percent, Xiangyang 1.9 percent, Beihai 2.1 percent.

Existing home prices climbed 0.59 percent nationally. The top tier cities saw net prices declines, while the hot second-tier cities only accounted for 6 percent of the national increase. Beijing saw the largest decline, 1.2 percent.

NBS: 2017年6月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

American Mood Sours

BI: Americans are less happy than they were 10 years ago — and money alone can't fix it
Americans were first asked that question in 2006, and in 2007 the US had the third-highest happiness results of 23 OECD countries. Today, that response is at its lowest point yet, ranking 19th of 34 OECD countries.

"America's crisis is, in short, a social crisis, not an economic crisis,"economist and Columbia University professor Jeffrey D. Sach wrote in a chapter of the report called "Restoring American Happiness."

Sachs mentions that while per capita GDP — an indicator used to gauge the economic health of a country — is rising, happiness is falling.

"The United States can and should raise happiness by addressing America's multi-faceted social crisis—rising inequality, corruption, isolation, and distrust—rather than focusing exclusively or even mainly on economic growth, especially since the concrete proposals along these lines would exacerbate rather than ameliorate the deepening social crisis," he wrote.
The scale of crisis is far greater than any time at least since the 1930s. Correcting these problems requires a decline in social mood because people don't reform until mood turns negative. Rising mood will increase the very problems that need to be fixed because diversity and immigration increase isolation, distrust, corruption and inequality. Social mood is in a bear market and the low lies in the future.

Chinext Falls 5.1pc on Regulatory Fears

China is deleveraging and trying to tighten. The Fed will start shrinking its balance sheet by December, maybe September. The ECB might start tapering. Japan is the ever-present fireworks factory in search of a match.


Fixed Asset Investment Rises 8.8pc in June

Fixed asset investment growth was 8.8 percent in June, enough to keep the YTD growth rate steady at 8.6 percent. Private fixed asset investment increased 7.2 percent YTD and 8.3 percent in June.

NBS: 2017年1-6月份全国固定资产投资(不含农户)增长8.6%
NBS: 2017年1-6月份民间固定资产投资增长7.2%

China Real Estate Investment Below Trend in June

Real estate investment ticked up from 7.4 percent to 7.9 percent growth in June, but this still slowed the YTD total growth rate to 8.5 percent.

Home sales (in yuan and area) and land sales both ticked up.

NBS: 2017年1-6月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况

Chinext Plunges to New Bear Market Low

Price as of Monday morning.
CBBC: China reports 6.9% second-quarter GDP growth on year, topping expectations


Chinese Cities to Link Residential Land Supply With Population

iFeng: 楼市调控思路重大变化:“人地挂钩”加快一二线供地
Centaline real estate chief market analyst Zhang Dawei said that the past few years on the big cities are proposed to strictly control the border, reduce land supply, but now is to adapt to changes in population movements, increase the supply of land in large cities, "This idea is a major change in property market regulation."
What's the big idea? Linking land supply to population changes.
In the past for a long time, China's implementation of "control the size of large cities, and actively develop medium-sized cities and small cities," the small and medium-sized urbanization strategy, land supply to the three or four lines of cities tilt, and the population to the metropolitan area gathered trend divergence. As a result of this supply and demand mismatch, part of a second-tier urban land supply is insufficient, housing prices bubble serious, and three or four lines of urban land supply serious surplus, land waste, efficiency is very serious.

Therefore, the implementation of "people to hook" in order to communicate with the population of the situation and the actual needs of the match.

Held in December last year, the central economic work conference clearly to implement the people linked to the policy, according to the distribution of population distribution of land use indicators. To implement the responsibility of the local government, the real estate prices rose the pressure of the city to a reasonable increase in land supply, increase the proportion of residential land, make up the city idle and inefficient use.

Chinext Slides as Credit Growth Slows

And herein lies the rub: as we said one month ago, "fundamentally a ponzi scheme, this works without a glitch during rising markets but falling prices especially among small and mid-cap companies, have eroded the value of that collateral, raising the specter of forced liquidation - where lenders, often Chinese brokerages, make borrowers sell the pledged shares. Selling the stock adds more pressures on share prices, triggering a downward spiral."

But wait, there's more: while most Chinese companies pledged "only" their own shares to get loans, a handful of companies also used shares of the acquired companies as pledged collateral.

This is precisely what HNA Group did, which now faces not only growing regulatory scrutiny from Beijing that threatens to spook bond investors and raise HNA’s financing costs, but also send its shares plunging as holders are forced to liquidate even as most of the shares pledged to fund its buying spree are already declining, accelerating its demise. And, in an scenario that can only be dubbed as a "reverse rollup from hell" - on steroids and margin - one that would make even Valeant blush and snicker, if the value of its collateral, i.e. stock price, falls enough, HNA will soon be forced to sell its holdings to repay debt, thereby resulting in the disintegration of the company.
ZH: "A Reverse Rollup From Hell": China's "Boldest Dealmaker" Faces Margin Call Disintegration


Mortgages Down, Short-Term Corporate and Household Lending Up in June

Corporate borrowing (SOEs?) offset the drop in household borrowing in June. Mortgages fell to 31 percent of total lending, down from 41 percent in June 2016. July will be interesting. Last year, mortgage lending was more than 100 percent of total bank lending in July.
ZH: China Creates A Quarter Trillion In New Loans But Analysts Are Worried: "It's Not Enough"
Looking at the breakdown, corporate loans rebounded to CNY695bn from CNY609bn a year ago, with long-term corporate loans coming in at CNY578bn (year ago: CNY411bn) and short-term loans rising to CNY274bn (year ago: CNY198bn). Household loans remained strong in June, registering CNY738bn, compared with CNY712bn a year ago, of which short-term household loans rose to CNY261bn (year ago: CNY138bn). We note long-term household loans (mostly mortgage loans) slowed to CNY483bn, from CNY564bn a year ago. We continue to expect long-term household loans to soften given the PBoC's further guidance to commercial banks to raise mortgage rates and lower loan-to-value ratios recently.

M2 Slows Slightly in June, TSF Jumps

Headlines focused on the 12-month M2 growth rate of 9.4 percent, made possible by the June increase of 1.87 percent being below the June 2016 increase of 1.97 percent. The 3-month annualized M2 growth of 8.2 percent looks much slower, well below the year-ago 12.7 percent.
The increase in M2 wasn't offset by a rise in reserves. China's FX reserves account for 12.7 percent of M2.
Total social financing hit a new rolling 12-month high of 19.1 trillion yuan.

Reuters: China's June new yuan loans rise to 1.54 trln yuan, above f'cast
Chinese banks extended 1.54 trillion yuan ($226.9 billion) in net new yuan loans in June, well above analysts' expectations.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans of 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.11 trillion in May.
Reuters: China June total social financing rises to 1.78 trln yuan
iFeng: 中国6月末M2余额同比增9.4% 再创历史新低


Chinese Cities Boosting Land Supply: To Stabilize Home Prices or Raise Money?

Last time housing turned down, land sales collapsed. Top-tier cities want to boost land sales this time around, under the guise of stabilizing prices. But are they more interested in boosting revenues in case land sales collapse again? Also consider cities such as Beijing are limiting population growth and even relocating population into the surrounding province.

iFeng: 中国大城市开启大规模供地计划 有利于平抑房价
Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Fuzhou and other large cities in China recently developed a large-scale land supply plan. In the real estate regulation from the "subtraction" to "add" in the process, the Chinese city will open a new round of large-scale supply to the times?

Shanghai plans to supply 5500 hectares of residential land during the period of "13th Five-Year Plan" (2016 - 2020), which will provide about 1.7 million units of housing, according to the "Shanghai Housing Development" "Twelve Five" period increased by about 60%.

Beijing also significantly raised the supply plan for residential land in the next few years. Beijing officials last month revealed that Beijing will build 1.5 million new homes in the next five years. This is in line with the five-year land supply plan released earlier in Beijing. In this plan, Beijing plans to supply residential land in the next five years, 6,000 hectares.

Shenzhen City, Shenzhen City, the recent housing construction plan in 2017 annual implementation plan, Shenzhen this year will arrange the supply of commercial housing 168 hectares of land, plans to build new construction of 80,000 sets of commercial housing, construction area of ​​7.2 million square meters. Last year, Shenzhen new commodity housing sales of about 40,000 units.

Fuzhou this year to determine the residential land supply plan compared to last year more than doubled, two years after the plan also continued to increase the trend; Guangzhou City 2017 construction land supply plan shows that this year, Guangzhou new residential land of about 5.7 square kilometers, year on year An increase of 19.1%.
Furthermore, some of the cities limited land sales to support home prices in the past:
Large cities, especially Beijing, Shanghai and other large cities to increase the supply of land is undoubtedly conducive to stabilize housing prices. But most of these cities are scarce land resources, lack of capacity for the city. For example, in recent years, Beijing has gradually reduced the supply of land, for many years failed to complete the annual land for the plan. In 2016, the actual supply of residential land in Beijing fell to 469 hectares, less than 40% of the planned completion.
Another possibility: these cities are planning more redevelopment, pushing residents out into the hinterlands to make way for commercial development.


China Connecting West with Singapore

iFeng: 中国西部启动建设一条向南出海纵向大动脉(图)
"South to the channel" has a broad market prospects. From Chongqing Yangtze River shipping to the sea is 2400 km, transport time more than 14 days, if the Chongqing railway to the North Bay port is about 1450 km, reduced distance of 950 km distance, transport time is only 2 days, greatly saving distance and time cost. If you go south from Lanzhou to Singapore, than the east of the sea time to save about 5 days, land and sea transport distance by about half.

The western part of the western region is mostly east-west channel, the "south channel" from the North Bay and Nanning to the north by Guiyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, connected Lanzhou and Xi'an, will form the western region of China's first north-south vertical Big arteries, but also to the northwest of China more than a large channel to the sea. At the same time, the "south channel" in the sea and nine ASEAN countries connected to the land and the Indochina Peninsula in seven countries connected to these countries and China to build traffic corridors also help to promote economic corridor construction.

Chinese CPI and PPI Fall in June

The third consecutive month of PPI deflation, an annualized rate of 3.6 percent deflation.
NBS: 2017年6月份工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨5.5%

As has been the case in the recent past, the only thing keeping Chinese consumer prices from sub-1 percent inflation or even outright deflation is the Spring Festival price spike.
NBS: 2017年6月份居民消费价格同比上涨1.5%


Super Volcano Fears Reflect Current Mood

The earthquake, which was the eighth largest ever recorded in Montana and largest in 34 years, comes just weeks after a flurry of smaller earthquakes hit the region. The swarm of activity began June 12, and by the end of the month nearly 900 earthquakes had been recorded near the Yellowstone supervolcano, along the western edge of the park.

Though the heightened seismic activity has stoked fears of a possible supervolcano eruption, Jacob Lowenstern of the USGS told Newsweek that it is not without precedent.

“The swarm in 2010 on the Madison Plateau lasted at least three weeks. In 1985, there was one that lasted several months,” he said. “Yellowstone has had dozens of these sorts of earthquake swarms in the last 150 years it's been visited. The last volcanic eruption within the caldera was 70,000 years ago. For magma to reach the surface, a new vent needs to be created, which requires a lot of intense geological activity.”
One reason why the supervolanco story keeps popping up is trust in scientists and science is falling. At peak social mood, people believe science and scientsits have all the answers. As peak mood fades, people take a reasonable view of science. During periods of negative mood, trust in science is replaced with superstition.

Scientists haven't done themselves any favors with their global warming data manipulation and in the case of seismology, giving spectacularly ill-time advice.

Science: Seven-year legal saga ends as Italian official is cleared of manslaughter in earthquake trial
Investigations of Bertolaso’s role in the prequake reassurances began following the release of a police phone tap in January 2012, while the scientists’ trial was taking place. In the phone call, made to a local Civil Protection official the day before the experts met, Bertolaso said he was sending the scientists to L’Aquila to carry out “a media operation” in order to “shut up any imbecile,” most likely a reference to Gioacchino Giuliani, a technician at the nearby Gran Sasso physics laboratory who had reportedly raised a series of alarms about impending strong quakes in the weeks beforehand.

Bertolaso’s trial only got the go-ahead in October of last year, after the prosecutor in the original trial twice requested that the case against him be dropped. Following opposition to those requests by three relatives of the deceased and their lawyers, hearings got underway in March and concluded on Friday, only 6 days before the trial would have been timed out. (Italy’s “period of limitation” dictates that a verdict much be reached within 7.5 years of the event, in this case the earthquake.)

During Bertolaso’s trial, there was much discussion of the idea that lots of smaller tremors are a good thing because they discharge energy and therefore reduce the chances of a major quake taking place. Considered by many seismologists to be false, it was this idea that witnesses in the original trial said victims found particularly reassuring and that persuaded them to stay indoors. De Bernardinis relayed the notion to the public in a now infamous interview he gave just ahead of the scientists’ meeting on 31 March 2009—which is why he was convicted for manslaughter.
As for climate change: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data
The peer-reviewed study tried to validate current surface temperature datasets managed by NASA, NOAA and the UK’s Met Office, all of which make adjustments to raw thermometer readings. Skeptics of man-made global warming have criticized the adjustments.

Climate scientists often apply adjustments to surface temperature thermometers to account for “biases” in the data. The new study doesn’t question the adjustments themselves but notes nearly all of them increase the warming trend.

Basically, “cyclical pattern in the earlier reported data has very nearly been ‘adjusted’ out” of temperature readings taken from weather stations, buoys, ships and other sources.

...“Nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments,” Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, a study co-author, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “Each dataset pushed down the 1940s warming and pushed up the current warming.”

New Shanghai Housing Development: Rental Only

A Shanghai housing development being offered for rent instead of sale made headlines as Chinese wonder if it signals a change in the market.

iFeng: 楼市出现只租不售现象 房子会越来越便宜吗?
The two pieces were in Zhangjiang and Jiading, the use of a column marked "rental room", which means that developers must be self-holding after 70 years.

For such a notice, in fact, indicates that the first-tier cities are accelerating the development of the rental market. This is undoubtedly for living in the front line of ordinary people is a big positive. The future of the property market is not only a second line and three or four line differentiation, it is within the city of differentiation, what people rent, what people buy a house, the pattern will be more and more clear.

FX Reserves Tick Higher in June

FT: China forex reserves climb for fifth straight month


Once Hot Hefei Home Prices Down 50pc

Home prices in Hefei are down 15 to 20 percent, with some individual properties down as much as 50 percent.

In the second half of last year, especially after October 2, Hefei launched the "history of the most stringent purchase order", the real estate market quickly by the hot state of hot and cold into the cold, the price continued to fall, the volume shrinking. According to real estate intermediary, the current Hefei housing prices generally fell 15% to 20%, individual residential prices actually showed a 50% straight down, the price was cut.
Financial speculation was rampant and now gone. Some investors didn't even care about speculating on the home price, they used the property as a way of taking money from the bank:
Wang Tao said that they did many batches of business last year, including a "real estate group" is from Zhejiang over, four individuals to form a team. Behind a few companies to sponsor some of their funds, used to pay real estate first payment, earned money and then split into proportion. At that time, they suddenly had 20 sets, so that intermediaries to help calculate the down payment, can figure out how much money they can get from the bank. They don't care about the quality of the house, they just want to find a house with large floorspace, so that you can borrow more money from the bank, this kind of "financial speculation" is barely legal.

This type of "real estate group" mostly do not need their own money, if done well, but also more sets out some money. He remembered very clearly, there is a "financial speculators" through this way, after some operation after more than 200,000 cash.
iFeng: 这个城市去年房价涨幅全球第一 今年却几近腰斩


Second-tier Cities Offer Free Rent, Hukous and Money to Graduates

Second-tier cities are fighting to attract graduates. Changsha offers an annual rental subsidy of 15,000, 10,000 and 6,000 yuan for graduate, masters and undergraduate degree holders. Graduate and masters students also receive 60,000 and 30,000 yuan subsidies for a home purchase. Fuzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Wuxi are other cities offering benefits. The latter three have subsidies worth as much as 100 million yuan for companies.

iFeng: 动真格了!二线城市"开价抢人",送钱、送户口,还送房住!