Gold & Gold Miners Hammered

Nevsun (NSU) is down nearly 10%, knocking out a big chunk of the gains I have in it. A lot of gold and silver miners are down 3 to 5%, with spot gold down almost $30 from its intraday record high.

A correction in gold and gold miners was overdue and once again GDX fails to reach a new record high above March 2008 levels. If this is part of the broader deflationary trend, today's move in gold makes sense. However, if this is a reaction to the yuan exchange rate, it's the opposite of what I'd expect. Just as the broader stock market reversed itself this afternoon, I'd expect gold to also reverse itself overnight or tomorrow.

Nice pop from the gold miners this week

Here's a chart of the three gold mining stocks I purchased on May 6. One way up, one up in line with the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), and one way down. Luckily, I'm overweight the big winner and underweight the big loser. I don't know whether this rally can last, it really will depend on whether gold prices can hold up. But I think it's a good hedge in case my bearish stance is wrong, since I believe the miners and gold will do very well if we have inflation rather than deflation. Thus, with a smaller allocation of capital I can achieve decent returns if my larger bearish positions are wrong.

Nevsun (NSU) pops

One of the gold miners I bought on May 6, Nevsun (NSU), popped today.

The company says they are"not aware of any material undisclosed development that would cause the significant upward movement of the Company's share price."

The proximate reason is as plain as day for anyone watching the company: volume is currently 3.5 million shares now over 3.8 million shares with 10 minutes to go in trading, well over the 620k average volume over the past three months and also a new all-time high. Volume last exceeded 3 million on March 19. The previous all-time volume high was on June 19, 2009, at 3.7 million shares (those two days are the only other two over 3 million in volume).

Bye-bye Anadarko

It's down 10%. I know I'm probably getting chased out of it, but I'm cutting my losses.

Gold and gold miners are holding up very well this morning. Sticking with NSU, SA and EVOGF for now.

As of this moment, the major indexes are about 5% to 6% away from Thursday's plunge lows.

Buying some gold miners

In one account, my only position for several months has been ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO). I picked up Anadarko Petroleum (APC) last week. I expected the broader market sell-off, but thought APC sold off too much on the news of the leak in the Gulf. I think they're a great company, but if it breaks down, I'd sell and wait to buy it back at a lower price, especially since the miners may become much more attractive soon. At the moment I'm down about 4% in APC.

Today, I just moved back into Nevsun (NSU), a gold miner that was profitable for me from late 2008 to summer 2009. I sold out and it went up 100% after that. I also picked up some Seabridge Gold (SA) and possibly some Evolving Gold (EVOGF; EVG.V) if my limit order goes through.

Gold continues to be strong and I believe that gold miners can benefit if gold rises or stocks rise. Plus, if the euro reverses, gold and stocks may both rally. I think one can do fine holding an ETF here, such as Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) or Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ).

分析金矿股票图表

我以前看看美国，香港和大陆的差别。
现在我想分析金矿股票图表。 在二月的时候，金矿票预测股市的股市底部.在这时候，市场大师Prechter说了别卖空. 他用艾略特波理论, 但是金矿票也说有问题。金矿票重要因为在S&P下降的时候，金矿票涨价。跟随标准普尔是个变化.

现在呢? 看起来有问题.黄金价格平的,可是金矿股票下降了.

我还是想今年跟去年有相似之处:

不知其月有什么新闻,可是我怕金融公司盈余报告. 2008年7月是Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac的危机.

大陆金矿票跟随上海股市:

最后给你看看Chris Vermeulen的GLD(黄金ETF)技术分析:


这里还有几个图表.

谢国忠：看好黄金涨到2000美元

大回调之后再买

《大众证券报》：在金融危机爆发后，你一直看好黄金。目前，市场上有一种乐观的看法，认为未来黄金能涨到2000美元/盎司，你是否同意这种观点？

　　谢国忠：长远来看，在二三年内黄金涨到2000美元/盎司是有可能的，我还是比较看好黄金、石油的，因为有通胀、央行货币发放太多的因素。这是
一个趋势，但是不会一路涨到底，在这个过程中会有反复，所以，短线来说，涨得太多了就不能再追了。看好一个品种，都是在一个大回调以后再去买，风险比较
低。涨得比较快就说明有热钱在流入，有流入就会有流出，就容易导致短线亏损。

金矿:
山东黄金（600547.SS）
中金黄金（600489.SS）
紫金矿业（601899.SS, 2899.HK）
荣华实业（600311.SS）
灵宝黄金（3330.HK）
招金矿业（1818.HK）
瑞金矿业（0246.HK）
澳华黄金 (1862.HK)
紫金矿业H股2899比A股601899升值了百分五十多，2899跟招金矿业1818差不多。
这里有美国的金矿。

看到香港和美国金矿差不多，但是上边看大陆落后. 可是看看一年的:

如果黄金价格比通货膨胀升值多或者价格下降比通货紧缩少: 我是金矿牛. 最近金矿股票升值了,但是黄金没升值. 如果股市下降和黄金不升值,金矿股票会下降.

透露一个消息: 我买了NSU和GLD.