Open Door

The orange line marks the 52-week low in ZB. It doesn't have to break for a bear move, but a break would be more bearish for the market than a rally because a rally would signal the long-end of the bond market finally pricing in lower interest rates. It's possible stocks and bonds drop and rise together, but my expectations is bonds will lead a move higher. If bonds rally now, then stocks probably bottom in a month or so. If bonds drop now, then the final low in stocks is probably lower and closer to or into November. That is a general sense, not a hard forecast.

Technicals say bounce from oversold indicators and bearish sentiment. ES shouldn't clear 4020 and SPY $400. A move above could result in a ripping short squeeze.

If the markest break, there are bearish targets galore. These are only the few I've posted recently or noticed as I'm going through charts this AM...

Bonus Shorts

I cut the screen to 20 percent higher volume. Another chemical company was in the mix:

ALso: SHOP,NVDA, MPWR (I sold my puts on Thursday) and AMD. Also HRL, JBHT, TEAM, PSNY, HUBS, ZI.

Bearish Looking Charts With Liquid Options

Assorted charts follow.

AMD

Added blue horizontal, chart alert set to remind me to short it. Could go higher, but if the bear is strong and the rally is abbreviated, it might not fill the gap. A break below would unleash more accelerated selling.

Semiconductors Down

Might get a bearish engulfing candle on AMD the way things are going.

Alert: AMD

Shopping for puts as I'm posting this. Blue line is stop.

Semiconductors

AMD taggin resistance, ASML approaching support. I'm looking for a bull trap to spring on technology. Tech has been positively corelated with interest rates, except when rising bonds are bearish for stocks. Traders have aggressively run up technology stocks on the assumption of a Goldilocks drop in interest rates.

Still Looking Good on Chip Shorts

I sold MU puts for AMD puts last week, that trade has worked well so far. The question is: is a lower low coming? Near-term need the $77.50 to fall, then open a test of the horizontal of this topping pattern at $73.90, below which a serious correction will likely be underway.

Chips

I took profit on MU puts yesterday picked up a similar exposure with AMD for less capital.

Chip Shortage

Short those chipmakers.

More Moo

Added more June puts. New all-time high will be exit.

Another one to consider. It's weird right? Chip shortage anbd semis on the cusp of reversals. Either the correction is over or someething is rotten below the surface somewhere, because in a raging bull market on the cusp of high inflation and a chip shortage, these stocks should be leading.

If A Top

AMD could trace out a H&S pattern with the peak of the right shoulder formedby mid-to-late April. Not a forecast, but how the shape looks and lining it up with seasonality. Assuming AMD breaks the horizontal, whenever it happens the initial target is 25 percent below the current price in the $60 area. Of course a new high negates a bearish outlook. As long as it holds above support there's no significant bearish action coming.

Here the Bears Come Again

Looks like a good time to short again. This is only a sampling of the many shortable charts out there. The picture could change swiftly if the market zooms higher, but I like the odds here.

Cover AMD

On September 27, I wrote: AMD Topping Patterns

AMD closed at $32.59 that day. It is $17.56 after hours as I type this, down 46 percent. I missed the post earnings drop because I already covered earlier in the day.

AMD Topping Patterns

If AMD makes a clean break above its long-term resistance then I will be out of the trade and I thought I might be a few times, but it has hit a wall of resistance, for now.

Schaeffer's Research: OCTOBER'S WORST STOCK MIGHT SURPRISE YOU

Chip stock Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has more than tripled in the past six months, and could get a short-term boost after today's Fed rate hike, if recent history is any indicator. However, the shares could retreat heading into 2019, as AMD tends to struggle both in the month of October and in the fourth quarter.

Below are the 25 worst stocks to own in October and the fourth quarter, respectively, looking back 10 years. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AMD stock has ended the month lower 60% of the time, with an average loss of 8.95% -- the steepest on the list. Meanwhile, AMD has surrendered an average of 7.03% in the fourth quarter, ending higher just 30% of the time.

AMD went through a six-week topping pattern in 2000 and a month in 2006 after making its final high. If this is a topping pattern, it is already two weeks old.

Shorting AMD

I shorted AMD when it hit its long-term resistance line. I got stopped out and reopened the position. There's no fundamental thesis for the trade. If AMD breaks through that trendline, it's over.

With that said, here's a bearish take AMD: Dangerously Overpriced, Here's Why

On the broader semiconductor sector, from Slope of Hope: One Possible Future (by Piano Man). The focus in on testing company Teradyne (TER) as an indicator of the sector's direction.

The best trades come when short-term indicators line up with a fundamental shift. For now it's a short-term trade that could get stopped out as soon as today given recently volatility in AMD.