Dan Tags Resistance

Fertilizer Ready to Rip

I have to chuckle at the World Economic Forum putting out "You will own nothing and be happy." It is the same thing as, "Have fun being poor!" Knowing that poorer people spend a higher proportion of income on food, and looking at fertilizer charts reminds me of it.

I own the first two, considering calls on the others.

I'm Technically Flat Now

I have been buying gold mining and energy shares, many listed below. These are small starter positions. Part of the reason for this is segregating my profits from options trading. I'm long energy as a hedge in case I'm wrong about it going down. I think stocks are done going down for a bit and look for IWM to rebound towards $209 per share as one example. The island top in Google is something I will be watching closely though...if that is a signal, it tells me the market might top out by Wednesday. I have short positions on a bunch of bond funds, TLT being the largest. Some of my positions are offsetting and the junior mining stocks are equity, not options. My VAR has collapsed after closing most options today.

Energy Getting Hyper

Two weeks ago I posted, Aggressively Shorting Energy. That didn't work out as a trade, but WTI crude oil is still below the fibonacci level as long as it doesn't clear $77.25. XLE clared an old support line today, but there's still a possibility of a symmetrical head and shuodlers top.

Long-terrim readers will know I have been a long-time bull on SWN. The stock climbed 21 percent today and exploded higher along with the rest of the natural gas sector.

One of two things is going to happen. Either energy will correct along with the rest of the stock market, or energy is about to signal inflation is accelerating quickly, in which case the Nasdaq is going to ggo skydiving without a parachute. I still prefer natural gas as an energy play for myself. An alternative, derivative play is fertilizer. I opened a position in this stock today.