Brazil Again

Tech Starts Cracking, Dollar Threatening Breakout

I'm not pressing my bearish positions to the floor yet, but did add some puts on AMD today. Every prior bearish move like this has evaporated and already this one being bought midday. Shotgun comments follow.

XLF a real bear move will see the current short-term pattern form the lower case h-patter and it begets more lows. XLE approaches the blue former support line, below could unleash more rapid selling. Not expecting a collapse like in March 2020, but could be big profits for short-term bearish trades. SMH looks like overthrow bulltrap, below that red line would be bearish. Wedge pattern breaks for ASML and LRCX, AMD already broke it's multiyear wedge and failed at former support several times. Bought puts on DE again after exiting in June. I have puts on EWZ because I anticipated a drop in tech and a rise in the dollar. Target is the green line. Have July puts, if I think green line will break, I will rotate to August. TLT calls doing well, but TLT coming up on 200-day MA and a gap at $147.94. Volume profile says there's not much resistance until around $151 though. UUP is mashed up against resistance and a horizontal. A move through 92.77 on DXY should trigger a breakout in the dollar. BTC is still at risk of a bearish breakdown. Not posting silver, but it tends to be inverse of dollar.

Short Targets for July

If tech pulls back, my main targets are ROKU, SMH and SE. I'm also short energy, Brazil and financials today, long TLT.

Latin America on the Brink

A stroll through charts in Latin America.

First currencies. USDCLP (Chile). Base, test, boom.

USDBRL (Brazil). Base, boom.

USDMXN (Mexico). Fakeout to breakout.

USDPEN (Peru) has a long way to go if it follows Chile and Brazil's currencies.

Country ETFs argue for a bottom, but there are also topping patterns that point to huge declines if they complete.

Individual stocks follow. These aren't selected for any particular reason as a group. Some are airport stocks that could sink if coronavirus spreads, some have nice patterns. My focus is on banks because of the currency component.