Pennsylvania Buys Fettercoin

My bets on the election won't pay off because unless there's some shock result coming (GA might go to a runoff), the Democrats will hold the Senate. They might even gain a seat, but who knows because it'll take days to roll in. Assume they do. I looked back to find the other years the President's party gained Senate seats: 1934, 1962, 1970, 1982 and 2002. Ultra-popular FDR, JFK, Nixon, Reagan and Bush riding popularity waves and in the case of Bush, the fear-echo from the September 11 terrorist attacks. This year is not like any of those years. I wondered, what year was similar? And I think I found one: the 1930 midterm election. You'd assume Republicans were smashed that year and you're right to a degree. The GOP held the Senate though, by the VP's tiebreaker vote.

Crypto cratered yesterday. Support is busted and there are huge losses all over. Solana was hot in late 2020 and early 2021, and now looks like it will retrace all its gains.

The next moment of recognition could be coming to stocks. There will probably be divided government, but there won't be much of a brake on self-destructive foreign and economic policy. This was a very strong setup for the GOP and they barely gained ground. I do think the GOP might come back to win in 2024 because I think these midterms might be more like the 1930 midterm. The GOP lost the House and lost Senate seats, but held the Senate with the tiebreaker vote. The Democrats will lose the House and they might hold the Senate by the tiebreaker vote again or with a slim majority. The Republican President Hoover kept doing the same interventionist policies that kept failing, as the Baizuo admin will continue their failed policies into 2024. The hope around a Federal Reserve pivot, that there can be a soft landing or even no recession, is reminiscent of the market in early 1931, The Tragic Year.

Tomorrow's CPI report may or may not be a trigger for this realization, but it could be. The market has been very bullish. The market assumed a Red Wave would bring divided government, but it would also give hope that the bad policies collapsing the nation would be slowed or stopped. Now it doesn't look like there's any hope until 2025 at the earliest, and even that hope probably requires very bad things happenening between now and then because the surging crime and inflation to this point wasn't nearly enough. There are levels of crime and inflation that will change voting patterns, but they're far higher than today's levels. If the CPI comes in cool tomorrow, then no worries for bulls. The market will rally because inflation is solved. The Fed pivot story will gain steam and bears will be squeezed, perhaps into the end of the year.

If instead inflation comes in hot, there will be some realization by delusional bulls that nothing good is coming. There is no hope. They've been played the fool all year and it isn't going to end. The S&P 500 Index will start trading like BTC.

Solana to One Dollar

The symmetry isn't as nice, but I see what is forming now as the corrolarly to what formed on left side. Support will break and eventually back to $1 area.

Cryptopocalypse Returns and Apocalypse Now for Stocks?

Ethereum tagged the major support line I mentioned yesterday:

BTC also lost support but hasn't taken out the prior low yet.

Back in December 2021 I posted on Solana, a hot crypto that did a 500x from 2020 to 2021. I wrote:

Blue support broken. Take out green and I'm looking for $80, with $50 and $20 lower targets.

June 2022: $20 incoming.

All signs point to an open door for major bearish moves in crypto and stocks. There is one trader out there arguing for temporary bear squeeze though:

yes I think BTC is at the yellow circle, tagging the neckline ... There may be one last bear market rally before complete annihilation begins. pic.twitter.com/P7n47UFjeu

— xTrends (@xtrends) June 12, 2022

He is also looking for SPX to bounce to 4100 by next week possibly, plus an eventual move to 4300 before it goes down tubes. He has been right more often than not. If he's right again, the stock market should either move up overnight or capitulate on Monday or Tuesday, with cryptos following. If he nails this call perfectly, he will achieve legendary status if he doesn't have it already. 

I suspect the biggest risk for his forecast is that the capitulation move hasn't completed and may see far larger drop into Monday and maybe Tuesday. As I wrote yesterday, my pit stop target of $370 on SPY would probably be hit in the next day or two if selling momentum continued into this week, even if he's right about the eventual move this week. I'm open to all scenarios. I think the big money trade, assuming he is correct about capitulation, would be to catch that bottom and ride it back up. If there is more dip first, the rebound will likely be even faster.

Finally, stocks "should" fall here because all these late bulls are realizing they've been wrong all year. Yet, the Johnny-come-latelys selling stocks here are six months behind the curve. The forward looking trade is selling energy stocks because everyone realizes either recession or central bank policy will start lowering energy prices (and eventually prices throughout the economy). Or buying the capitulation dip. Falling energy prices was one of my bear market rally keys, along with a bounce in bonds. If a trifecta unfolds where all three are behaving as I anticipate, I will have confidence to place large leveraged trades. One way or another, this is going to be a crazy week.

Solana

Blue support broken. Take out green and I'm looking for $80, with $50 and $20 lower targets.