Palladium and Nasdaq, Unhappy Together

My bearishness is intensifying.

Bonus: another sign that platinum's time is coming.

This chart from Slope.

From Stockcharts, the line from the 1980 high hits 2000 and the recent high:

Related posts:

Palladium Signals Top at $3200

The Top is Coming

Palladium Still Calling Tech & Palladium Top

Is The Bull Market Over?

2020 pre-covid panic: Palladium's Pendulum: A Third Top in Time and Price?

PlatinumX̄

If gold goes to $5000, platinum goes to $10,000. My prediction is platinum outperforms silver in this bull cycle.

2020 Sucked, 2021 Is Gonna Blow

Assuming the U.S. Dollar Index has entered a bear market, green regulations spread and deepen, governments increase stimulus and an full exit from the pandemic occurs, 2021 could be the year inflation returns. It will hit precious metals and industrial commodities first.

The U.S. Dollar Index has likely entered a bear market. The prior two bear markets saw 7 to 8 near-consecutive quarterly declines (the rebounds were small bumps on the road lower). A reversal to 96 is a correction, above and we're probably discussing widespread financial panic. The last stop for a rebound is the 88.50 area. If a bear market, the DXY should be sub-80 by year-end. Fundamentally, all the conditions for a relative dollar rally against foreign fiat are still in place, but it's a question of whether those fundamentals have been overwhelmed by animal spirits. Coming into 2021, the indication is yes.

The major indexes enter the year with a potential bearish setup. One must consider them through the lens of technology-sector distortion. Tne Nasdaq 100 has no upside resistance haven broken free. The DJOA and R2K both look like they're running into resistance, as would be the S&P 500 if it didn't have such a large technology weight.

The precious metals all have bullish setups except for palladium. It looks like it could be headed for another test of the top, but even if not, returns will likely be higher in other metals.

If a bullish resolution in 2021, copper should exceed $4 by year-end, and possibly as soon as May or June. It has a long way to go before hitting support at $3.00, a move below $2.90 would raise the threat of this year being a false breakout.

If gold will run, BTC Bitcoin looks like it will extend its run versus gold.

Silver junior miners could be the first movers if 2021 is gonna blow.

Coiled Platinum Spring

Platinum has based relative to gold. It's outperformance is bullish for the whole PM complex. Look at that price action vs monthly volume. Pressure is building.

Platinum Rising

Another Platinum Breakout Candidate

This one is breaking out.

The key for all the platinum miners is the platinum price. The above chart looks extended short-term, but platinum is basing, $50 away from $1000 with a 3 percent gain today. A rally of 5 percent takes platinum through its base and into breakout. That would override the extended look of some of these charts. The stocks highlighted in Platinum Miners Ready for Launch are moving closer to or completing their basing patterns. Back in August when I posted them, platinum subsequently tumbled from $975 to $880 in two trading days. This is a highly volatile metal. Below is the ETF, PPLT.

A Pick for 2020

Platinum, and NCP.TO (NCPCF in the U.S.)

Gold Miners vs Platinum

China Auto Emissions Standards Rise in July

Chinese auto sales have been slumping and one reason may be the rollout of stricter emissions standards.

Caixin: Stricter Vehicle Emission Standards May Spell Further Bad News for Hobbled Industry

The country will soon adopt the sixth phase of its vehicle emission standards, which China claims is even stricter than the European Union’s. Once it goes into effect, dealers will no longer be able to sell vehicles with that don’t meet the rigid requirements.

As China grew increasingly aware of pollution, the government decided in mid-2018 to move up the implementation date for the new standards in certain prominent areas including Beijing, Chengdu and south China’s Pearl River Delta. The new rules will go into effect in July 2019 – one year earlier than their previously scheduled date.

World Platinum Investment Council: China clean air, PGMs and platinum

China has some way to catch up with PGM loadings in more mature markets. The right-hand graph above shows PGM loadings per vehicle in North America, Japan and China. Several factors explain the differences including average engine size, fuel mix differences (thus excluding Europe), and, most importantly, emissions standards. Nonetheless, as emissions standards and wealth improve in China, PGM loadings should continue to approach those of more developed regions, thus providing a demand push for PGMs, including platinum, by potentially as much as a gram per vehicle.

As palladium goes further into deficit, it should tighten the platinum market. The Chinese demand trend is significant as it represents 26% of global PGM demand. Should Chinese automakers see supply risk and/or cost disadvantage in palladium, the platinum market offers ample capacity to satisfy increased PGM demand.

Platinum-Palladium Ratio

Platinum-Palladium ratio, and then again with the U.S. Dollar Index inverted.

The bubble metal of 2010...platinum?

Platinum to beat gold, says Goldman Sachs

This could put downward pressure on the gold price but could have the opposite effect on platinum and palladium, it added. "While these new physical-backed ETFs present a downside risk to gold ETF demand and gold prices, they represent an upside risk to platinum prices. We continue to recommend a long position in platinum as a 'gold-plus' trade."
The bank described demand for gold EFTs as "rather muted", adding: "The holdings of gold EFTs have been essentially flat over the past six months at around 47m ounces. Should the investor demand for gold not return to the market this year, upside for gold prices would be further limited."

ETF Securities launched a platinum ETF just in time, symbol PPLT. The also created a palladium ETF, symbol PALL.