Palladium Flirting with Final Support

It is at the late 2021 low and broke long-term support above this month. I am not shorting palladium because Russia is a major producer and geopolitical outcomes could be wild, but rather as a leading indicator for the Nasdaq.

Palladium Breaks Support

Here are prior posts where I used palladium as a signal to short Nasdaq.

Who Wants to Short Commodities?

Nasdaq and Palladium

The Top is Coming

There can be a large gap in time between the moves. I view palladium as the leader here because it broke a major topping pattern. If it recovers, perhaps Nasdaq is leading short-term. A palladium and Nasdaq top are consistent with what I expect for a bear market and transition to new bull market with new leaders.

Dominoes Lined Up and Falling

ES traded down to a support level this morning. THe Dow Jones Industrial Average lost the 1929-2000 trendline. Palladium is threatening a top completion and breakdown.

Binance is in trouble and it is the market:

Platinum:

Palladium

Could give a new signal to short tech and growth if it loses support.

Palladium Again

A breakdow is bearish for the Nasdaq. If it falls into year-end, the yearly candle will be a gravestone.

Do You Believe in Cycles? Palladium Moving Fast to Breakdown

In 1998 there was an oil price collapse, Russian debt default, soaring palladium prices, followed by a U.S.-led technology bubble melt-up. In 2020, there was an oil price collapse, a U.S.-led technology bubble melt-up, then Russia "defaulted" via sanctions, palldium prices peaked wiht the invasion of Ukraine and have since nearly completed a massive top. Do you believe in cycles?

Palladium and Nasdaq, Unhappy Together

My bearishness is intensifying.

Bonus: another sign that platinum's time is coming.

This chart from Slope.

From Stockcharts, the line from the 1980 high hits 2000 and the recent high:

Related posts:

Palladium Signals Top at $3200

The Top is Coming

Palladium Still Calling Tech & Palladium Top

Is The Bull Market Over?

2020 pre-covid panic: Palladium's Pendulum: A Third Top in Time and Price?

Another Positive for a Rally

Palladium pops. I am not sure why it works, only that palladium and technology are highly correlated over the longer-term. Palladium is much more volatile and sometimes moves by itself, but usually reattaches.

Here's the recent history of QQQ and the physical palladium ETF.

Palladium Down 6pc

As expected...

Platinum $10,000

Platinum is the cheapest of the precious metals if it can return to its former ratio with gold. If gold hits $5,000 and platinum hits its old peak ratio, it will reach $10,000 per ounce. If you look at fundamentals, you'd pick palladium over platinum though: Palladium set to rally for years on shortages, top miner says

Prices of palladium and rhodium are poised to rally for years as a supply squeeze tightens for the metals that are key to curbing vehicle emissions, said the head of the world’s third-largest producer of platinum group metals

Platinum prices, for which South Africa is the world’s top supplier, are likely to remain subdued in the medium term until automakers switch from using more palladium in catalytic converters, he said.

The chart and some cycle events argue for platinum. First the chart.

The metals are correlated, but platinum and palldium have different phases of leadership. Palladium peaks in 2001, platinum in 2007, palladium in 2020 (with a brief overshoot in 2022). Palladium peaks in 2001 after oil falls below $10, the Nasdaq tech bubble pops, Russia defaults on its debt, conincident with a top in the U.S. dollar index. What has happened in the past two years? Oil fell below $10 per barrel, the Nasdaq tech bubble is popping, Russia defaults on its debt, the U.S. dollar index is not yet making, but is inevitably heading for an important top.

The platinum analog playing out now would be the 2001 low before the bull market entered its manic phase. Platinum bottomed two years earlier, rallied and then consoliated those gains. A proportional conslidation would take platinum down into to the $800 to $850 area.

The fundamental bullish case for platinum will emerge after it has already run. Watch the chart.

Palladium Down 11pc

Palladium and Nasdaq Update

Amazing that the QQQ lines up perfectly with drawings I made for palladium. It is an artifact of the chart because they are on different scales, but because I believe these assets are correlated...that's amazing.

Palladium Update

Palladium Ping

Game Over Equity Bears

Not quite over the finish line for Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 yet, but close. The bear market has moved into commodities and that's "bullish" for stocks in a world where the trade-weighted average holding period is probably measured in days at best. Is the bear market over? Hardly. If there was a chart of the fundamental value of stocks, it would be making new lows daily. Fundamentals don't matter in the short- or intermediate-term though. Also, while I don't expect a big rally this year, the 1970s show stocks can churn with 50 percent swings up and down, but still relentlessly bleed value because of inflation. There is no rescue for the stock market except the low growth, deflationary condition that allows unrestrained QE. Which comes with more unemployment, deaths of despair, political violence in the West and so on.

Down Goes Palladium

March 7: Palladium is done

Commodity Reversals and Copper Gold Update

Price collapse: who's expecting it?

Gold-copper is at an important juncture. It has been rising, but hasn't broken out yet. However, with recent volatility being what it is, the ratio could break out any day. the breakout delta from the current level is 6 percent. That is, if gold rises by 3 percent and copper falls 3 percent, the ratio breaks out. An upward breakout in gold/copper signals deflation or possible stagflationary recession that is a monetary crisis, hence gold outperforming.