We Didn't Think...

Western institutions have grown soft because they haven't faced hard choices in decades. Need more money for wars, welfare or tax cuts? Print up more treasury bonds! Financial markets in trouble? Engage in central bank intervention. Economy weakening a bit? Bailouts! "We didn't think supply chains would be damaged for going on two years...," "We didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine...," "We didn't think....We didn't think....We didn't think...."

Not Buying It

Maybe it's time to short wheat (alogn with most of the ag complex). I do see problems on the horizon, but maybe it's all overpriced in and food supply won't be as bad as expected.

Commodity Reversals and Copper Gold Update

Price collapse: who's expecting it?

Gold-copper is at an important juncture. It has been rising, but hasn't broken out yet. However, with recent volatility being what it is, the ratio could break out any day. the breakout delta from the current level is 6 percent. That is, if gold rises by 3 percent and copper falls 3 percent, the ratio breaks out. An upward breakout in gold/copper signals deflation or possible stagflationary recession that is a monetary crisis, hence gold outperforming.

Wheat and Cattle