Earnings This Week

Nasdaq, semiconductors and some energy producers.

$10 Natural Gas

Breaking out of this zone doesn't guarantee a trip to double-digits, but that is a very possible destination. Natural gas will probably go to a new all-time high.

It's a Gas

Taco isn't jumping yet, but Antero is close to a breakout. Although I worry that the actual taper (if it ever begins) could sink oil prices, natural gas has a history of going its own way. If I'm wrong and oil takes off, natural gas stocks (along with oil services) are still dirt cheap. They haven't priced in the gains to this point,

Energy Breakout

I'm still on the fence macrowise, but the chart says breakout. So, what do I do? Go back to the Taco. I feel more confident with natural gas because it has a history of bear market outperformance. I picked up 40 delta March calls at the $5 strike. Other natural gas charts to check out and consider are AR, RRC, OVV and CTRA, all in the U.S. I did buy a few calls on CTRA as well, but not a meaningful position.

First Sunday of Advent Charts Part One

I'm going through my watchlists. These are in no particular order, though each post will be in alphabetical order. These could be buy or sells based on your orientation. One thing I noticed was on charts such as EXAS that are ARKK components, a few of them bounced up above resistance but closed below. a monday morning bounce back to that resistance area followed by a failure would be a nice spot for new bearish positions. The first chart is SPY. That rising wedge looks desinted for a collapse and the cyan lines highlight a gap from way back in April.

Energy Getting Hyper

Two weeks ago I posted, Aggressively Shorting Energy. That didn't work out as a trade, but WTI crude oil is still below the fibonacci level as long as it doesn't clear $77.25. XLE clared an old support line today, but there's still a possibility of a symmetrical head and shuodlers top.

Long-terrim readers will know I have been a long-time bull on SWN. The stock climbed 21 percent today and exploded higher along with the rest of the natural gas sector.

One of two things is going to happen. Either energy will correct along with the rest of the stock market, or energy is about to signal inflation is accelerating quickly, in which case the Nasdaq is going to ggo skydiving without a parachute. I still prefer natural gas as an energy play for myself. An alternative, derivative play is fertilizer. I opened a position in this stock today.