A-Share Short Targets

Two big ones.

卖空A股

iFeng: 历史罕见！茅台、宁德时代一同被大举减仓！基金最新持仓大曝光

Maotai Corrects 22pc

Even amid a global pandemic, Kweichow Moutai, the company that makes the eponymous liquor, had a banner year: its stock surged around 70% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2020. The company, which is part state-owned and part publicly-traded, is China's most valuable firm outside of technology — worth more than the country's four biggest banks. Globally, its market cap has not only surpassed all other alcohol distillers like Diageo and Constellation Brands, but also Coca-Cola, which had long held the crown as the world's largest beverage maker by market cap. Valued at 2.7 trillion yuan, or $421 billion, Kweichow Moutai is worth more than Toyota, Nike and Disney, too.

It's 53% alcohol and tastes like fire. Here's how this liquor brand took over China

Maotai Prices Are Tumbling

China is cracking down on Maotai dealers and the price is tumbling, but is that due to the regulations or because deflation is rearing its head?

iFeng: 中秋前夕飞天茅台降温：批价骤降至2400元附近 黄牛慌了

First, the scope of the clue collection includes:

(1) In the sales of Moutai wine market, illegal and illegal behaviors such as hoarding, raising prices, increasing sales, transferring sales, and illegal tying;

(2) The illegal act of producing and selling infringing and counterfeiting Moutai;

(3) maliciously selling the sales units and individuals who speculate on the sale of Moutai to seek improper benefits;

(4) Producing and publishing false advertising advertisements of Moutai, deceiving and misleading consumers and other illegal acts that damage the legitimate rights and interests of consumers;

(5) Other violations of laws and regulations that disrupt the order of the Moutai market.

Second, the report method: 24-hour complaint report phone number: 12365. All sectors of the society and the broad masses of the people are welcome to report.

Some industry observers pointed out that the first and fourth measures in the document were more effective, which greatly promoted the regulation of the Moutai market, and effectively shocked the speculators in the market and successfully curbed the flying Maotai in the Mid-Autumn Festival in line with the interests of consumers.

Did the crackdown lower prices or are larger economic forces in play?

“Affected by major festivals, the prices of pork and other essential products are also falling. The price of the flying Maotai in the Beijing market has indeed been lowered, currently around 2,400 yuan.” In the survey, there were long-term follow-up observations of Guizhou Maotai’s securities to the wine Industry reporter said.

It is understood that regarding the price of a batch of Maotai liquor, there has always been a distinction between “bulk goods” and “piece goods” in the market, and the prices obtained by the above-mentioned liquor companies are all “prices” at the dealer level.

According to industry sources, Feitian Maotai's bulk purchase price in the early stage of the Beijing market was 2350-2400 yuan, and today's purchase price is 2100 yuan, down 250-300 yuan / bottle, there is indeed a large decline.

Some people aren't buying the crackdown explanation:

Another industry analysts believe that the core reason for the large drop in the flight of Maotai is mainly due to the release of various channels before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the supply has increased. Some people in the market believe that the price of Moutai may fall after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Therefore, the current market demand is affected. The multiple factors such as price cut expectations and weak investment attributes have a large decline.

In this case, there is a group that appears to be panicked. This group is the "yellow cattle" party that has long been speculating on the flying Maotai. "The oxen are really panicked, because a large number of goods are coming to the market, and prices will fluctuate." Someone analyzed.

There are many rumors on the Internet today. Some say that Beijing Huangniu has lowered its price in Maotai. It is also said that Maotai has increased its supply and price control has been well stabilized before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Kaisheng Liquor believes that at present, the entire high-end liquor has indeed risen faster in the early stage, but it does not mean that the demand for high-end liquor will be met. This is only the increase in volatility after the stock price and the terminal price increase too much.

Why is the price of Moutai so important? Moutai is the price indicator for the whole high-end wine. The price of Moutai is falling, which will inevitably affect Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao. Because the difference between the ex-factory price and the terminal price of Maotai is the largest, the price reduction does not affect the profitability and short supply of Maotai. Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao enjoyed the spillover effect of Maotai's short supply.

Some brokers believe that the main reason for the short-term decline in Moutai prices is: 1. Manufacturers require 18% of the July and August quotas to be shipped in accordance with 1499; 2. The goods began to be delivered to September in the second half of last week, so the short-term approval price fluctuated slightly. However, it remains firm and the callback is limited. In the previous period, the 2600-2700 was shipped at a lower price, and there was no market price. The price of 2400-2580 was relatively more realistic. The overall regional feedback on high-end liquor sales in the Mid-Autumn Festival was good, with steady growth year-on-year, in line with current market expectations.

Maotai Bubble is Back, But Competitors Are Striking

21st Century: 一线调查：53度飞天茅台价高缺货 五粮液、泸州老窖补位进攻
Sogou: First-line investigation: 53-degree Feitian Maotai with high price out of stock Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao's replacement attack

For two consecutive months, according to the on-the-spot investigation conducted by 21st century business herald reporters from Beijing and Chongqing, not only are there no 53-degree Feitian Maotai sold in the self-run Maotai shops in the two places, but they are out of stock for more than one month, and even many Maotai dealers say they have no goods to sell. Many tobacco hotels and Maotai dealers in Yubei District of Chongqing reported that the 53-degree Feitian Maotai liquor was priced at around 1900 yuan, and department stores such as Beijing Cuiwei Department Store Peony Garden even priced at over 2400 yuan.

At a time when the price of Feitian Maotai liquor is high and out of stock, the market space vacated by Feitian Maotai liquor is being replaced by other famous liquors, the most prominent of which are Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, which are closely followed by Feitian Maotai liquor.

While speaking, a phone call for wine came in. The shopkeeper answered, "Maotai liquor is expensive. if you drink it yourself, I recommend you to buy Wuliangye, a collection limit for the high-end department of Wuliangye. The original price is more than 2,000, and we have received gifts from large manufacturers, so we will give you 1100 yuan. The quality of the wine is much better than that of ordinary Wuliangye, and it is 1.5 kg and has high cost performance. "

After taking Wuliangye discounted high-end collection liquor PK Feitian Maotai, the other party was moved. The shopkeeper went on to lobby: "You think Feitian Maotai is expensive, take Maotai series? Maotai series wine is also of high cost performance, but are you good enough to entertain guests at a price of over 200 yuan and 300 yuan or 400 yuan? "

The words sound just fell and the other party immediately said at the other end of the phone that they would send a "Guoyun Chang" to us sometime. After finishing this large order, the shopkeeper turned to persuade the reporter who hesitated between Maotai and Wuliangye to buy the wine. Seeing that the reporter was not in a hurry to place the order, he quickly sent the picture of Wuliangye wine to the reporter's mobile phone and turned out the Wuliangye picture album, pointing out that the wine and the yudingjingsheng series that Wuliangye sugar will appear this spring are both ultra-high-end products, allowing the reporter to find him at any time.

Compared with the "shortage" of ordinary Maotai liquor, the ultra-high-end products developed by Guizhou Maotai are not out of stock.

"30-year maotai liquor is 9,700 yuan, and kg maotai is 3,800 yuan. these are all sold today." At Chongqing Ran Jia Ba Yu Song Zhi Lu Dian Wu Liang Ye Ming Hotel, the owner took stock of the May 7 delivery note and told reporters in 21st century business herald.

Similarly, at the self-run store of Chongqing Guojiu Maotai Sales Co., Ltd. located in Longshan Street, Yubei District, Chongqing, the clerk told the 21st century business herald reporter who bought the liquor as a consumer that although both Feitian Maotai of 53 degrees and 500 milliliters worth 1499 yuan and Wuxing Maotai of 53 degrees and 500 milliliters worth 1699 yuan were out of stock, the fine Maotai liquor was temporarily available at 3199 yuan.

The first quarter of this year showed that the net profit of Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) increased by nearly 10 points over the increase in revenue. From January to March, the company realized operating income of 21.6 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, and net profit of 11.2 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year. Pacific Securities believes that Guizhou Maotai's first-quarter results exceeded expectations, with product upgrades being the main reason. During the reporting period, the actual quantity of Maotai liquor shipped was close to 7,000 tons, the product structure and the price per ton of liquor increased, and the fine Maotai liquor was released at the end of last year. Judging from Guizhou Maotai's 2018 annual report, gross profit margin is as high as 91.25%, up 1.4% year on year.

Fine Maotai is becoming the new profit growth engine of Guizhou Maotai. At the national spring sugar cocktail party in March, no matter the first low-alcohol maotai dealer symposium or the maotai spring dealer symposium, many dealers took the initiative to talk about the market share of the fine maotai at the price of 3,000 yuan being expanded. Maotai ultra-high-end products, represented by premium Maotai, personalized Maotai and aged Maotai, are changing the strong market pattern dominated by 53-degree Feitian Maotai.

Returning to the shortage of ordinary maotai liquor, is it natural or artificial?

Under the marketing system in which the sales income of distributors and wholesale agents accounts for 95% of the overall sales income of Guizhou Maotai, the market price of 53 degrees and 500 milliliters Feitian Maotai has reached about 2,000 yuan. Self-owned or direct-selling stores supply a small amount of Feitian Maotai at 1499 prices. Will they not wait for customers to come to their homes and immediately become another drive-up by neighboring cigarette hotels or dealers?

Parity Maotai disappeared, leaving most Maotai dealers unscathed. However, for the consumers who are getting closer to Guizhou Maotai in the past two years, it has become a worry that they can't buy a bottle of Maotai in their own stores or run straight stores. "I am the manufacturer who issued the Maofen passport. As a result, I can't even drink the Maotai liquor with the manufacturer's guiding price of 1499, which will affect our loyalty to the product for a long time!" An anonymous Maofen in Chongqing called a reporter from 21st century business herald and said.

China Economic Indicator: Maotai Prices Soaring

Caijing: 茅台酒价格暴涨：市场上一瓶难求 或有公款消费影子

January 8, Guizhou Maotai issued a notice on the Moutai price adjustment to require all levels of Moutai subsidiaries, Maotai Group subsidiaries at all levels must be sold in accordance with the price of 1499 yuan / bottle 53 degrees 500ml Maotai liquor, and recommendations Discretionary reference to the seller, not stocking cover, not tied tying.

This is not the first time Maotai limit, the Internet can even find "Maotai limit order" entry. As early as the end of 2010, Maotai announced the price adjustment, had requested dealers selling ordinary Maotai price of not more than 959 yuan per bottle. The passage of time, Maotai limit "threshold" has soared. The last time was in April last year, when Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. ordered dealers across the country, 53 degrees 500ml Flying Maotai prices can not exceed 1299 yuan / bottle.

Chinese Commercial Daily reporter learned that, starting from the Spring Festival last year, high-end liquor has re-displayed gains. Maotai put the official retail price of 1299 yuan per bottle, but the market has emerged out of stock situation. Now, Maotai terminal retail price adjusted to 1499 yuan, although the price has increased, but to successfully buy is still not an easy task.

Maotai price gains have beaten the hottest real estate markets in China:

Some organizations statistics over the years Maotai price changes. Thirty years ago, the retail price was then checked by the state at 140 yuan / bottle. Twenty years ago, the retail price of Maotai 53 degrees at 200 yuan / bottle or so. After 2000, the ex-factory price increased at the same time, the market price also began to accelerate the climb, from 300,400,500 in 2011 up to a maximum of 2,000 yuan.

Since 2012, the liquor market has declined, while the retail price of Maotai once fell below 1,000 yuan. Then the market warming, Maotai prices back in the past two years to rise channel. Before last year's Mid-Autumn Festival, many consumers reflected that it was necessary to buy Maotai at a price of over 1,500 yuan and the maximum was 1,800 yuan. Even if all Moutai are sold at the latest price of $ 1,499, the price has risen by more than 70% from the trough two years ago.

Real estate prices often attract attention. According to the recently announced index of new commercial housing prices in the 70th City of December last year, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported 51.8% of the increase in Xiamen compared with the same period of 2015, up 34.9%, 45.8% and 37.8% respectively over the same period of the previous year 45.7%. Xi'an prices, the last two years rose 21.3%. It can be said that in the past two years, the price increase of Maotai has "outperformed" the prices of major cities in China.

ChiNext Plunges 6.9% Early, Then Bounces; Shanghai Dips Too, But Now Higher

ChiNext was down 6.9% early on, to a low of 2717, but has bounced to a 5% loss. At the low, it was down 31% from the peak. Have to see how this plays out, the early drop is a good sign that like last Tuesday, it was pent up selling. The ChiNext is recovering its losses now. Shanghai suffered a similar dip and is already back to gains.

And the booze: Luzhou Laojiao is limit up 10%. Wuliangye and Maotai also beating the market.

Wuliangye Cuts Prices as Baijiu Bubble Keeps Deflating

China's anti-corruption campaign put the hurt on luxury baijiu brands. Wuliangye is still cutting prices in an attempt to grab market share——prices at the high end are coming down 30% and wholesale prices are back to levels seen 3 years ago.

五粮液多款产品降价抢市场

Cape V. prices fall, it seems only Wuliangye (000858.SZ) a start price behavior. Recently, Wuliangye to large distributors Silver Base Group (00886.HK) "relaxation", lowered 45 degrees and 68 degrees Wuliangye liquor supply price.

"First Financial Daily" correspondent was informed that this is the recent series of Wuliangye liquor "relaxation" of a signal. A series of anonymity, told reporters yesterday wine distributors, wine blessing recently to celebrate another series of doors also reduce the supply price, "high-end product prices lowered by 30%."

Chengdu Shangshan Brand Management Consulting Co., iron plows, chief strategic adviser, said the price adjustment and price adjustment before the S & P five is the same strain: "With the S & P five series of wine price adjustment is the trend, including the underwriting of products will be adjusted before the estimated not For a silver-based behavior. "For the price adjustment, the reporter yesterday asked Wuliangye relevant person in charge, but the other side has not yet responded to the deadline.

Wholesale price night back 3 years ago

Recently, Silver Base Group announced that, Yibin Wuliangye liquor sales company, and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Silver Base Trading and Development (Shenzhen) entered into a supplemental agreement, the company of 45 degrees and 68 degrees Wuliangye liquor supply price will be reduced to September 2011 price before the company believes will have a positive impact on margin improvement. It is understood that the current market price of 45 degrees Wuliangye between 500 to 600 yuan, 68 degrees Wuliangye prices below $ 700.

Although Silver Base Group did not disclose the specific amplitude adjusted, but industry insiders believe the move will help Silver Base Group reduced losses. Wine marketing experts 晋育峰 "First Financial Daily" reporters, said:. "Currently silver-based provision 999 million yuan for two consecutive years, the existing inventory 796 million yuan, is expected next year to reduce costs after a relatively favorable" Although This news release late, but still Silver Base Group will help reduce inventory costs and reduce losses. As Wuliangye big business, has been doing high-end liquor Silver Base Group caught under the limit "Three consumption" loss, the huge loss of HK $ 1.134 billion in 2013, 2014 continues to incur losses, losses amounted to HK $ 788 million.

In fact, in addition to these two exclusive agent by the silver-based Wuliangye products, the reporter learned from other sources, Wuliangye series of wine products also recently adjusted prices. "In recent days it lowered the supply prices," the dealer said above blessing celebrate the door, "high-end product supply price reduced by 30%, we are satisfied with the price." Previously, crystal bottle 52 degrees Wuliangye The price cut is 16.46%.

There are brokers who declined to be named to the "First Financial Daily" correspondent said that this is mainly because the main brand Wuliangye price from 729 yuan five P dropped to 609 yuan, the wine itself is a reference to the original series of the price system, therefore had to be adjusted. If the series of wine prices significantly higher than the S & P five, their performance will be poor, this adjustment should be to drop the price of the S & P after five, "the end of the upside is the ultimate goal."

Control the amount insured has changed abandoned trick

In fact, as early as last Friday on Wuliangye "spoilers" a series of wine will take action. Wuliangye aspects of the exchange after the shareholders' meeting with investors when it admits: "Competition has a new series of wine changes, the high-end wine prices down, the price squeeze on family liquor Wuliangye series of wine are also under pressure, with the real estate wine to be. indisputable share. "Thus," in the second half to strengthen the focus of the market breakthrough series of wine, resources have been arranged. strive series of wine there are no major decline. "

Wuliangye case revealed the flagship product of the same date, "the company to take measures to restore market order to get good prices have stabilized and rebounded terminal performance in the off-season is within the expected range."

Notably, when specifically mentioned in the second half to begin to grab market. Wuliangye side said: "This year, stocks are kept relatively low state marketing system do not give businesses yahuo hope businesses have annual sales of around 10% to 20% of the inventory.." Wuliangye Group chairman Tang Bridge admits: "The problem is not the price enterprises have the final say again, this will be reflected in the current round of adjustment. "

"Maotai, Wuliangye to ensure that the price of 2,000 yuan, the market shrinking, slowly we'll probably forget this brand, then what is the value of the brand? So, to expand your market share, the price is determined by the market." Don Bridge said.

Chinese Doctors Protest, Liquor Profits Cut in Half

China doctors protest after murder by patient

Chinese hospital staff protested on Monday after a patient killed one doctor and wounded two more, local media said, in the latest violence to hit the country's overburdened medical sector.

Dozens of doctors and nurses wearing white coats and blue surgical masks crowded outside their workplace in Wenling, in the eastern province of Zhejiang, photos posted on the major web portal Tencent showed.

Chinese Austerity Measures Hit Wine and Spirits Sales

Recently, baijiu sales have plummeted. In 2011, the average bottle of Moutai cost more than $323, and aged Moutais from the 1980s sold for $5,000 per bottle. In early 2012, the prices began dropping and now hover at around $164. Admittedly, it's been boom and bust. Just seven years ago, the same average bottle of Moutai was sold for $33 before prices shot skyward.

I haven't seen any English news with details, but Wuliangye, a competitor with Moutai, saw it's profits plunge in the third quarter. Profit was basically cut in half from a year ago. 五粮液三季报净利润大降 白酒板块难言拐点到来

I covered the liquor bubble previously, including: Chinese Maotai bubble bursts! and Maotai bubble continues to burst, but Maotai stock hits a new high. Maotai and Wuliangye are now well off their highs. That second post was written as Maotai was making its all-time high. Since then these stocks are down more than 40 and 50%, respectively.

Maotai Collapses 10% In One Day

In March 2012 I wrote: Chinese Maotai bubble bursts!, which discussed the government crackdown on officials blowing public money on extravagant banquets, with much of the cash flowing into luxury goods such as the high priced Maotai baijiu. I was early with my call: Maotai shares ran from 200 up to 260 yuan before the top was reached, but with shares collapsing to 150 yuan yesterday, it's clear that the call was the right one.

The reason for the latest drop on Monday, a 10% limit down plunge: Baijiu-Maker Kweichow Moutai Sobers Up

Kweichow Moutai Co.’s shares plunged by the 10% daily limit in Shanghai on Monday morning, after the company reported its slowest half-year gain since 2001.

The maker of moutai, a high-end baijiu, or white liquor, said Friday its first-half net profit rose 3.6%.

Maotai bubble continues to burst, but Maotai stock hits a new high

The headline to this article (53度飞天茅台狂跌千元 批发商称10天卖不了1瓶) says the 106 proof (53%) Maotai price fell 1000 yuan from it's peak of ￥2300, and a wholesaler went 10 days without selling a single bottle. The reporter can't find ￥1300 bottles though, the cheapest are ￥1450 and up. One Wholesaler said he bought at around ￥1800-1900, if he sold at ￥1400-1500, he would go broke.

The retail stores are ghost towns. The reporter went in one store to find the clerk playing computer games and failing even to say hello. The retailers say they are looking forward to Chinese New Year, which is still 6 months away!

However, while the wholesalers are facing bankruptcy (due to chasing high priced bottles during the bubble), the company is reporting rising profits and the stock recently hit a new high: Moutai sales skyrocket in first half

You can click the Maotai tag below (600519) to see previous articles. I expected Maotai stock to crumble, but by May it was clear that this thesis wasn't panning out.

According to this February 2012 China Daily article, Maotai was planning to raise prices from ￥620 to ￥900 per bottle. This Chinese article from today says Maotai planned on raising prices in April, but has pushed that out to December.

With prices still retailing at ￥1500-plus, Maotai can still see earnings increase if the retail price falls. However, if prices keep sliding, it will eventually cut into their revenue growth.

Earnings were only ￥8.44 per share in 2011, with the price at ￥244, the P/E is about 31. That number is justified if growth rates hold up, but the 2011 earnings are out of line with previous years. It doesn't mean the stock is richly valued, though it is richly valued compared to the Chinese stock market, which is only about 15% above its 2008 low.

Maotai update: stock investors don't see a slowdown

In Maotai bubble bursts, I looked at Maotai demand coming from government officials and speculative buyers of Maotai bottles. I expected the stock price to tumble, but thus far the opposite has occured: Maotai has marched higher.

Chinese booze stocks tumble; Maotai loses ￥14 billion in market cap thanks to government crackdown on waste

公款禁买高档酒 茅台市值一天缩水142亿 (Public money forbidden from buying expensive liquor, Maotai loses ￥14 billion in market cap in one day)

Although the government crackdown on bureaucrats buying high-end liquor will crimp sales, liquor stocks are still sought after by institutional funds. Some analysts believe the decline will bring in new buyers and others say the shares are reasonably priced. However, the estimated P/Es in the chart below look awfully high to me and those earnings are based on bubble-fueled spending. Jiugui (third from bottom on the chart), for example, saw earnings increase 142% on a 72% sales increase last year. (Jiugui means drunkard in Chinese)

This chart shows the stock symbol, name, closing price, change for the day, estimated P/E and return for the year. Maotai is the first stock listed.

As this one year chart of Maotai shows, yesterday's drop wasn't the worst suffered by the firm. News items do not drive share prices, social mood and investor psychology determines the direction and magnitude of price moves. Perhaps the move should have been bigger, since this is a major development, but investors may not believe the ban will take effect. Similar to how housing shares shrugged off the government's restrictive housing policies until the effects were clear to all.

Chinese Maotai bubble bursts!

For the past three years, China's credit bubble and stimulus fueled growth fueled demand for luxury goods. The stocks of luxury goods makers, including popular brands such as baijiu distiller Maotai (600519.SS) and gaming stocks such as SJM Holdings (0880.HK) have done very well even though the Chinese markets peaked in August 2009. There is a serious effort by the government to crack down on Maotai purchases (and wasteful spending in general) and the entire luxury goods sector could see similar fallout. As one example of the waste, one district governor drank 1200 bottles (see 茅台酒公款招待调查：区政府一年喝掉1200瓶), which at a value of 2000 yuan or about $300 a pop, amounts to some serious change.

Whether this is also an indication of the rest of the Chinese economy is hard to say since the government can be effective with very targeted measures. Either the government can claim credit for a successful crackdown or the economy is in much worse shape than people expect. And woe to the Chinese who started investing in bottles of Maotai!

How can the price of Maotai fall? 茅台怎么降价了?

The price of Maotai typically falls slightly after Spring Festival and this year supplies remain tight, which should only cause a small drop in prices. Instead, prices at supermarkets have plunged 15-30% in the past few weeks as sellers look to unload inventory. The next strong season for liquor is the Mid-Autumn Festival, usually in September, and supermarkets aren't waiting around to move inventory. Normally prices dip a little, but stay high until rising again in September. This is the first time prices have come down sharply for Maotai—and it isn't the only brand suffering. See: 茅台、五粮液等高端酒价下跌 (Maotai, Wuliangye and other high-end liquors tumble in price)

This article from February 7 discusses the large accumulated inventory of Maotai speculators that was keeping prices from rising too much at Spring Festival. (炒家囤积茅台春节集中抛货 节后酒水消费现滞) Now the dam has burst and Maotai is headed the way of the Beanie Babies bubble that accompanied the Nasdaq bubble.

Beanie Babies began to emerge as popular collectibles in late 1995, and became a hot toy.[4] Ty systematically retired various designs, and many people assumed that all "retired" designs would rise in value the way that early retirees had. The craze lasted through 1999 and slowly declined after the Ty company's announcement that they would no longer be making Beanie Babies and made a bear called "The End".

Typical behavior during positive social mood, which often generates credit bubbles that finance an investment craze.

I am bearish in general at this time and you cannot underestimate the power of a Chinese government crackdown, at least in the short-run, but even with those caveats this looks like a bad sign for the Chinese economy and coincident with the housing slowdown. I think it's a strong enough signal that we should see follow-on bad news in Q2, but if the economy continues along its "soft-landing" path, then I'd say it was the crackdown that killed this one specific market.

Below is a chart of Maotai A-shares. It has a long way to fall......

Update: I just came across this article, another exclamation point on the bubble: China Sprouts Moutai Stores

Kweichow Moutai Distillery Co, which own China's best known liquor brand, this year plans to open 130 outlets across the country, a person working in the industry told the EO.

The company, which currently has only 30 stores under its own brand, will produce an extra 1,800 tons of the famous white spirit to stock the extra shelves.

A long way indeed.

For more Maotai coverage see: Bubbles everywhere in China

More Maotai coverage

Maotai gets the full treatment by at Tencent's finance portal. On story notes that Maotai, which I posted earlier went for 2000 yuan per bottle, is now selling for 2700 yuan per bottle in Guangzhou. All sorts of stories at the link about scams and shady deals by people who are trying to profit.

Bubbles everywhere in China

Closer Look: Mad for Maotai

According to domestic media, the price of a bottle of 53 degree Feitian Moutai made by Kweichow Moutai Co., China's national liquor served at official occasions and state banquets, has ramped up to 2,000 yuan, almost double from the beginning of the year and more than three times its official factory price. Other middle and high-end liquors also witnessed price jumps pushed up by the hot demand before the Spring Festival holiday.

However, questions hang over how the brand was catapulted into luxury status. Behind the soaring prices, some say that the brand value of Maotai is not supported by real market demand but speculation and government spending.

Maotai has become a bit like Beanie Babies. People buy up Maotai and save it as a way to earn money, while the government has big pockets and spends lavishly for dinners. Or those currying favor with the government spend the money. As one friend told me, only if you are in the government will you taste Maotai.

China's National People's Congress saw delegates submitting proposals to ban Maotai and other luxury liquors at government banquets as a step to push forward reforms in government spending. The proposals pushed Maotai's stock price at a further downward trend.

After a two-year rise of stock prices in China's liquor industry since early 2010, prices of liquor companies started to fall in early December. So far, the stock price of Kweichew Moutai declined 14.6 percent from December 2. Another famous liquor brand Wuliangye also declined 13.9 percent from the beginning of December. A source from a securities firm said that the current public sentiment will bring a negative impact on the evaluation of liquor companies.

But Maotai's price-earnings ratio remains high. According to Wang Lan, a Caixin columnist, Maotai's PE ratio is 36.07 based on its December 27 share price, higher than luxury brand Louis Vuitton and Hermes.

Along with real estate, the Maotai bubble appears ready to pop.