Bin Laden's Letter to the American People

The Guardian deleted this letter because it's being interpreted wrong on social media. How does deleting source material qualify as journalism or even basic truth-seeking? There's no way to even combat false interpretations without the source material!

In the name of Allah, the Compassionate, the Merciful.

From Usama Bin Muhammad Bin Ladin to the American people,

I speak to you about the subject of the ongoing war between you and us. Even though the consensus of your wise thinkers and others is that your time (TN: of defeat) will come, compassion for the women and children who are being unjustly killed, wounded, and displaced in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan motivates me to speak to you.

First of all, I would like to say that your war with us is the longest war in your history and the most expensive for you financially. As for us, we see it as being only halfway finished. If you were to ask your wise thinkers, they would tell you that there is no way to win it because the indications are against it. How will you win a war whose leaders are pessimistic and whose soldiers are committing suicide? If fear enters the hearts of men, winning the war becomes impossible. How will you win a war whose cost is like a hurricane blowing violently at your economy and weakening your dollar?

The Bush administration got you into these wars on the premise that they were vital to your security. He promised that it would be a quick war, won within six days or six weeks; however, six years have passed, and they are still promising you victory and not achieving it. Then Obama came and delayed the withdrawal that he had promised you by 16 more months. He promised you victory in Afghanistan and set a date for withdrawal from there. Six months later, Petraeus came to you once again with the number six, requesting that the withdrawal be delayed six months beyond the date that had been set. All the while you continue to bleed in Iraq and Afghanistan. You are wading into a war with no end in sight on the horizon and which has no connection to your security, which was confirmed by the operation of ‘Umar al-Faruq, which was not launched from the battlefield and could have been launched from any place in the world.

As for us, jihad against the tyrants and the aggressors is a form of great worship in our religion. It is more precious to us than our fathers and sons. Thus, our jihad against you is worship, and your killing us is a testimony. Thanks to God, Almighty, we have been waging jihad for 30 years, against the Russians and then against you. Not a single one of our men has committed suicide, whereas every 30 days 30 of your men commit suicide.

Continue the war if you will.

Palestine shall not be seen captive for we will try to break its shackles.

The United States shall pay for its arrogance with the blood of Christians and their funds.

Peace be upon those who follow right guidance.

Justice is the strongest army, and security is the best way of life, but it slipped out of your grasp the day you made the Jews victorious in occupying our land and killing our brothers in Palestine. The path to security is for you to lift your oppression from us.

Bear Rally Over? Yield Curve and VIX Turn Higher

It has been a long and winding road in this bear market. Yes, I still believe a bear markert is underway until new highs are made. I haven't been tactically bearish on the market over the preceding months, onyl taking some small swings when setups looked good. Until those old highs are taken out, my bear market call from November 2021 remains intact.

First, the classic bubble chart pattern hasn't been violated:

A double-top is a valid expression of the "return to normal" phase. Bullish sentiment and speculative behavior return to near peak levels, propelling the major indexes or stocks into double-tops. Anecdotal, but cryptocurrency speculators believe a new bull market is underway. Bitcoin BTC has a pattern that is consistent with the classic top though:

Tesla, Google, Amazon and Meta all sport the classic pattern with no hint of an imminent double-top. The paradox stocks are Apple and Microsoft. Both have achieved new all-time highs. Their massive weight in the S&P 500 technology sector (nearing 50 percent at times) propelled that sector to a new all-time high in July. If I'm correct in my assessment, this will turn into an overthrow of a double-top pattern and not an extension of the bull market.

Industrials also achieved new all-time highs this year. Energy and materials made new highs in the second-quarter of 2022 and remain within striking distance of new highs.

I'll digress here and give the bullish argument over the longer-term. Assume for a moment the U.S. was primed for a recession around the time the coronavirus hit. The government then wrecked the economy and then flooded it with far too much stimulus. Even though there's no official recession in 2023, the U.S. government is running deficits on par with the fallout from 2008:

There's nothing bullish about that chart long-term. Growing deficits will increase inflationary pressure. Falling deficits could trigger deflationary pressure. Since stocks are priced for perfection, deviation out of the Goldilocks Zone will trigger price declines in all sectors at least for a time, barring an explosive move higher in energy as we saw in early 2022.

I don't want to belabor the valuation topic, but here is the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the growth rate (PEG) and the spread between investment grade corporate bonds and the Federal funds rate.

Going back the to the bull thesis: what if the government front-loaded stimulus and the bear market/recession doesn't materialize? In that case, either an extension of the bull unfolds or the transition occurs without the bear move. Both EFA and EEM, the developed and emerging market ETFs, bottomed in October 2022, with EEM having a little overthrow this year:

To wrap up the bull case: the government flooded the economy with stimulus, triggering a temporary inflation surge. Inflation settles back into the Goldilocks Zone, as does GDP growth, sub-2 percent for both. In the short-term bull scenario, stocks enjoy an extension with tech and other speculative assets resuming leadership. In the longer-term scenario, the transition to new leadership such as industrials, energy, commodities and foreign markets takes place without a major bear.

Back to the bear scenario, one of the strongest signals for a recession has been the inverted yield curve. It doesn't indicate an imminent recession, rather it signals the pre-recesesionary stage. The actual recession comes when the yield curve steepens. Going back the past four decades, this has always occurred when the Federal Reserve slashed rates. Right now, the yield curve is steepening because long-term bond yields are rising faster than short-term yields. It is a small move at the moment, but the spread has made a higher low, indicating the final low might be in.

The 10-year treasury yield has a bullish formation that may or may not complete. If it completes, then higher long-term rates will sink financial asset valuation and could indicate a stagflationary recession. The 30-year mortgage would be on its way towards 10 percent, a level that would almost assuredly kill home prices too. On the flip side, a traditional steepening via Fed rate cuts would be another bear market and recession like we've seen in 2000 and 2008.

The decline in the VIX has been a hallmark of this bull market. The VIX has fallen below the level reached at the November 2021 peak, indicating fear is gone. Here's the VIX overlaid with the 2s10s spread:

VIX isn't a great indicator in that it tends to be coincident with the 2s10s, but a rising VIX indicates rising fear, likely because there's bearish action in parts of the market ahead of the full-blown bear. Here's a look at when the VIX bottomed ahed of prior bearish periods:

There will be bearish trades emerging very soon if the yield curve has finished inverting and moved into steepening. Ditto if the VIX follows it higher. With September and October coming up, the calendar supports a market top scenario here. New highs on the major indexes will invalidate the bear scenario, as will a falling VIX. If the 2s10s inverts further or moves sideways, it will indicate no imminent economic pressure. If the 10-year yield fails a breakout for instance, the yield curve might invert further while the broader stock market interprets the falling yield as disinflationary and therefore bullish.

Claim: Biden Bribed by Russian Intelligent Asset

If this is true, it's the kind of bombshell that could wreck the current government.

Red State: Burisma Founder Mykola Zlochevsky, Who Allegedly Bribed Joe and Hunter Biden, Is an SVR Asset

It was revealed by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) on Monday that the “foreign national” mentioned in an FD-1023 form by a confidential human source (CHS) not only claimed to have bribed Hunter and Joe Biden but possessed a total of 17 audio recordings of his conversations with them about the arrangement. He created the recordings as a sort of “insurance policy.” It was not clear whether the FBI had copies of the audio recordings or not.

Last week Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Anna Paulina Luna, and Nancy Mace said that the foreign national identified in the FD-1023 form is Zlochevsky.

Unlear if this is true, and if true, if the source was a Russian asset from the start or turned later. If Biden was bribed by a Ukranian now working for Russian intelligence, I assume the American ruling class will try to spin it as Russian interference.

Peak FBI

American Greatness: Planned New FBI HQ Is Twice the Size of the Pentagon

If you're familiar with Socionomics, you know that many economies peak around the time the "world's largest skyscraper" is being built. Major new HQs for corporations can also mark a top. In essence, these are prideful projects that also distract from core missions or show it believes the core mission is in hand. The FBI is spiking the football after subverting the Trump presidency, interfering with the 2020 election and jailing enemies of the Deep State. A new HQ doesn't mean it will peak like a business or country though. Government institutions don't really have competitors. They expand and expand and expand over time. They will only be stopped by a willful effort by their opponents.

The FBI should cease to exist. All their functions can be farmed out to the state police with an overarching cooperative body run by the states. Everything the FBI does can be done by other agencies and institutions such as Secret Service, federal marshalls and state police. They plan on turning America into a total police state with their agency at the center. A new HQ is their way of announcing their power to the nation. Let's see if anyone can knock them off their perch.

Not Much Smart Money Will Be Left

RT: Huge global storm is starting, Moscow warns

“Most likely, a huge global storm is starting,” Peskov warned in an interview with Tass on Monday.

“In many ways, there are objective reasons for that, but there are also subjective reasons for this beginning storm, which are linked to absolutely illogical and often absurd decisions and actions of the authorities in the US, Europe, the EU and individual European countries,” he said.

Anyone betting on the governments of the West is the dumb money (aside from a few outliers such as Hungary). Once the Gods of the Copybook Headings are released, political power is useless. What was "smart" for the past several decades is no longer smart because the people who used to control events are now at the mercy of Nature, and probably God's wrath. Maximize profits on the carnage until they ban shorting, close the futures markets and make it illegal to bet against them, at which point you hope you've bought enough physical assets plus the guns and ammo that may be needed to keep them.

Next Up: Partitioning Ukraine

The Saker: Will the Ukraine be partitioned next and, if so, how?

ranslation: MOSCOW, August 16 – RIA Novosti. Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Volodymyr Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.

It sounds as if Western support for Kiev is ending:

Several countries in the West are waiting for Kiev to surrender and think their problems will immediately solve themselves, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba in an interview published on Tuesday. “I often get asked in interviews and while speaking to other foreign ministers: how long will you last? That’s instead of asking what else could be done to help us defeat Putin in the shortest time possible,” Kuleba said, noting that such questions suggest that everyone “is waiting for us to fall and for their problems to disappear on their own.”

VoxDay: The Partition of Ukraine

This anticipated partition would be a very good thing, as it would mark to an end the war between Russia and NATO by the surrender of the latter. The problem is that it will almost certainly require the European “partners” to break with the neocons who presently dictate US foreign policy, and the neocons are more than willing to fight to the very last European – yes, European, not Ukrainian – rather than give up their revenge war against Russia.

So, as fearful as the European leaders rightly are – they are terrified of their native populations going all Sri Lanka on their useless, cowardly selves once the winter shortages kick in – I don’t believe they are fully cognizant of the consequences of the Russian victory due to the media gaslighting, so they are reluctant to throw off their globalist masters and give up the fancy pants and lollipops that come with their submission.

Which means that I don’t think the nations that matter – France, Germany, and the UK – will give up and accept the new geopolitical reality until the winter of 2023 extinguishes all hope of reprieve, unless the coming winter is even worse than we’re expecting and the citizenries explode in open revolt.

Here is the post-war map that Medvedev posted, with the current map for comparison:

How likely is this? Here's an interesting news item from Vox's post: Germany wants to retake Polish soil — official

Since the reunification of Germany in 1990, Berlin’s strategic goal is to “regain in some form their former lands, which are now within Polish borders, and subordinate the entire belt of countries between Germany and Russia,” the Polish official said.

Can Russia obtain peace and splinter the EU by offering Poland historically Polish lands?

Beyond the geopolitics, I still believe that this round of a multi-year, perhaps decade-long bear market will complete when the EU surrenders to Russia and accepts that the Baizuo of USG have destroyed Ukraine. There was a rumor of a peace offer back in July that didn't materialize, but eventually it will come one way or another. On the European side, the self-inflicted pain from sanctions will pressure the Europeans.

Poor Baizuo

Tragically hilarious. Newsweek: Zelensky Makes Public Plea to China's Xi Jinping After Calls Unanswered

In an interview with Hong Kong's South China Morning Post published on Thursday—his first with an Asian news outlet—Zelensky said he had sought a direct line to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, since the Russian invasion began more than 160 days ago.

"I would like to talk directly. I had one conversation with [President] Xi Jinping that was a year ago," he told the Post's Amy Chew. "Since the beginning of the large-scale aggression on February 24, we have asked officially for a conversation, but we (haven't had) any conversation with China even though I believe that would be helpful."

How sad is it that the Ukrainian people have suffered and died because they have a clueless GAE puppet for a leader? How stupid is Zelensky to not understand Russia and China are aligned and he is a tool of GAE aggression?

A September-October Crash Scenario

Crude oil is "inflated" by Western green energy policy and psychotically anti-Russian foreign policy. The ruling class in Washington, DC, New York, San Francisco etc. must be removed wholesale if the public wants cheaper energy. For now, a majority of the public wants to do some combination of permanent lockdowns and nuclear war with Russia and China, so that will not happen. No one on the scene proposes both a return to realpolitik and an energy policy based on actual science and physics, instead of computer models generated by an apocalyptic green cargo cult or a policy that favors oil and gas producers over the rest of the economy.

The main assumption for this crash scenario is the economy declines as expected, but crude oil remains high. The stock rally also eases financial conditions. This keeps inflation and inflation expectations high.

The Federal Reserve, which has dragged its heels on inflation the whole way, stops dragging its heels on QT. When the QT amount doubles to $95 billion in September, the Fed starts actually doing QT.

The combination of higher than expected inflation plus the Federal Reserve getting serious about inflation again triggers a far larger market collapse than the one in mid-June.

This is not the only possible crash scenario, only one of them. As I've been saying for months, there are only two real "free lunch" policy available for the government: peace with Russia and doing anything to increase confidence in energy markets. Ease the sanctions, let energy costs plummet and economic pressure will lift. Sans that, their only hope is that the economy collapses enough to kill oil demand without triggering something like the 2008 market crash because there is no known scenario where things get better without getting worse first.

Why Are U.S. Gas Prices Falling?

Fang Fang's boyfriend started a #GasPricesAreSoLow hashtag on Twitter and it's going about as well as you might guess.

In case anyone is genuinely wondering why gas prices are falling, prices peaked right about the same time the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims bottomed. There's a small window where the clueless will celebrate falling gas prices because they don't realize it hints at a rapid decline in economic activity.

Gasoline demand is where it was in 2021, when the economy was still partially locked down. The drop in demand has helped lift inventory. All good news for gasoline prices. I expect prices will keep falling, but I expect they will start falling even faster because the economy is weaknening, not because of a healthy increase in supply or because foreign policy becomes sane again.

Mass Deportations Becoming Viable

Open borders has laid the groundwork for an extreme backlash on immigration.

Homeless shelters in Washington D.C. are filling up with asylum seekers from Texas and Arizona. Mayor Bowser says “I fear that they're being tricked into nationwide bus trips when their final destinations are places all over the United States of America.” pic.twitter.com/7OOH6F2Dpl

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 17, 2022

In case this eventually gets deleted off Twitter:

The replies have some clueless Baizuo claiming DC needs more resources, but they are overwhelmed by people pointing out the U.S. government is unleashing these problems on California, Arizona, Texas, and really all over the nation. For all the crap California takes for its homeless problems, the fact that DC now has overwhelmed homeless shelters makes shows us California is also in worse shape because of open borders. Might homelessness disappear in California if all 30 million or so illegal aliens were deported? It would free up a lot housing.

Mass immigration is an insane policy. It is an invasion by foreigners. Those who support it are traitors, and I do not use that word as hyperbole. Those who fail to secure the borders abdicate their claim to authority, in the same way that a city that refused to police crime cedes power to vigilantes, neighborhood watch groups and organized crime. 

DC's mayor is whining after a three months of a small influx of illegal aliens. Border states and many localities in the U.S. have been dealing with massive waves of migrants for years and decades. There is no defensible political position except seal the borders and deport the 30 million or so illegal aliens in the country. Texas and other Red states should start rounding up illegals on their own and start busing them to expensive, left-wing areas like the Hamptons, along with Baizuo centers such as Seattle, Portland and Minneapolis. Not even the Baizuo proles support these policies. They only support illegal immigration because the TV tells them it is racist to oppose it and because they don't personally feel the effects. Reality has a way of crushing even the most relentless propaganda. We're hitting that point with the mass invasion of the United States.

The American public doesn't need any other reason than open borders to overthrow the entire ruling class for intentionally inflicting all this damage on the county. The irony too, is that there's no resouces anymore. America is not a wealthy country. The left's desire for things like universal healthcare are a total joke without mass deportations. As happened in Denmark, eventually a "hard right" nationalist element will emerge on the left to match MAGA and populism on the right.

Bear Rally Turbo Charger in Play

I believe a rally has begun. It should last for several weeks. If Russia makes a peace offering, the long stocks and short oil ideas I've been running with will be greatly helped.

I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose...

President of Serbia Alexander Vucic.

RT: Ukraine conflict is already a world war – Serbia

Assume he is floating this information on behalf of Putin or he has accurate inside information. How long until Putin makes his offer?

Moon of Alabama: Ukraine SitRep - Additional Defense Lines, A Failed Counterattack, Weapon Deliveries

The artillery preparations for the next push had began immediately after the fall of Lysichansk. The 'week or two' have passed and the attack on the next defensive line (yellow line in the east) from Siversk to Kurdiumivka has begun. Yesterday ground fighting was reported within Siversk and Soledar.

I see two of the cities mentioned by the Serbian President are on that line. Avdeevka (Google map spelling) is due south of Petrivka, slightly past the bottom of the yellow line on the left. Google maps says Avdeevka is about 1 hour away by car. Since Russia is already moving on these cities, how long until they fall? How long after that could Putin make his offer? 

In a week or two the line down from Siversk to Krasna Hora will probably be under Russian control. Bakhmut, which is very fortified, may take a few more days to fall. The battle will then move to the next defensive line further west (also marked in yellow). That line is anchored in the north on Sloviansk which has a railway line (black) coming in from the west. That railway line allows the Ukrainians to supply their current frontline with heavy artillery ammunition and fuel. Sloviansk will be attacked from the northwest, the northeast and southeast. The force disposition map below shows that the Ukrainian defenses in that area are rather weak.

....The two in the east (right side) will fall within the next two or three weeks.

There are military maps at the link along with many more details.

Putting the pieces together

I've been looking for a rally in stocks for a few of weeks. I've been talking about a long plays for almost a month now. I first posted on biotech one day after it made its low for the year: If You Gotta Buy, Buy Biotech You can see ensuing posts by clicking on the XBI and IBB tags. For more posts, see the XLC and SMH tags. Almost all market-related posts are under the Charts tag.

Without going into all the details, the rally is mainly predicated on a pullback in inflation, recession risk, increasing expectation of a Fed "pivot" of some kind (see the Eurodollar curve Jeff Snider is always watching) along with an old fashioned short-squeeze. 

If Putin makes a peace offer of any kind, the immediate impact on the markets would be plummeting commodity prices, most importantly oil. This would alleviate recession risk, but also inflation risk and general fear in markets. Investors would become extremely bullish when it hits the wire. Depending on where markets are at the time, it could be the fuel for a peak in a bear market rally. I suspect stretch rally targets (20 to 25 percent off the low) would be hit in a Russia peace offer scenario.

The next move would be based on the Western response. Sadly, I'm with the Serbian President at the moment. The West has shown no sign it is willing to pull back from this war. That would guarantee the Russian offer might top-tick a rally. However, even Western sources have reported on the lack of weapons and manufacturing capacity in NATO countries. If the war escalated right now and NATO didn't achieve a quick victory, maybe they could stalemate Russia because there's a lot of territory Russia would have to cover. Maybe Russia would sit back and fight a defensive war. Would China open a second front in the Pacific though? Or openly support Russia with an economic blockade of the West? Western leaders are psychotic and seem insane, but are they that stupid? One can make a lot of stupid assumptions, but "we don't have enough weapons, we can only fight for about X weeks" is not something that can be brushed off. I don't have enough area knowledge to speculate on these matters, so will leave it at that. I pray that peace will come to Ukraine, Russia and the West. Whether is does or does not, you have been forewarned about a potentially major event coming as soon as August.

Open Borders Killing the American Family, Driving Homelessness Higher

Housing takes years to plan for. When a government opens the borders to massive migration, it is placing extreme stress on the existing housing stock. Soaring rents, soaring home prices and soaring homelessness are a direct result of this policy. Inflation is exacerbating a problem that at its heart is being caused by the Baizuo admin's immigration policies.

From Australia. MacroBusiness: Immigration ramp-up will turn rental crisis into catastrophe

“Rental competition is tough at the moment”…

“The number of properties available for rent has fallen to historically low levels and demand to rent is up, particularly in the capital cities, with Covid-normal underway and the borders having reopened”…

“A return of migration and an imminent rebound in the international student market will continue to add to rental pressures, further shrinking the supply of available properties.”

Leith van Onselen comments,

All indicators coming from the Albanese Government suggests it will ramp-up immigration aggressively. It plans to use September’s jobs summit, which will be dominated by immigration lobbyists, as a Trojan Horse to gain ‘consensus’ for the biggest ever migrant intake.

Anybody lobbying to increase immigration needs to answer the following question: where will the hundreds of thousands of new migrants live when there is already an extreme shortage of homes for the existing resident population?

As usual, the many costs of extreme immigration are never considered by the ‘Big Australia’ lobby nor policy makers.

Australia is a microcosm of the USA. The U.S. is in worse shape because it is also allowing in terrorists, murderers, rapists, drug traffickers, sex traffickers and assorted ne'er-do-wells.

Germany Plans Defense Cuts

This is more and more looking like the Green-Baizuo shutdown of the West as opposed to a conflict with Russia.

Twitter. Bild article (paywalled): Verteidigungsetat soll bis 2026 SINKEN

Which One is Dumber

WSJ: Covid Spreading at Fastest Pace Since Shanghai Lockdown Sends Shivers Through China Markets

More than 2,300 locally transmitted cases have been reported nationwide in the past seven days, with infections again on the rise in the commercial and manufacturing powerhouse of Shanghai, albeit from a low base. The central province of Anhui, a producer of steel, autos and computers, is the worst-affected—though new daily cases appear to be falling, to just 39 Monday from a peak of 292 more than a week ago. Cases have also surged in neighboring Jiangsu and Shandong.

If this is not WW3 subterfuge, which I believe it very well may be, China has become an unreliable trading partner. If this is in response to U.S. sanctions, then China can reasonably claim this is because the U.S. is not a reliable trading partner. Events have taken a winding road, but the expected separation of East and West is unfolding.

In light of this, the Baizuo admin has been an unmitigated disaster. President Biden speaks of lifting some Chinese tariffs to ease inflation...but how does lifting tariffs open Chinese factories on lockdown? It's absurd. President Trump was a cuck for Wall Street, too weak to take serious steps towards onshoring U.S. manufacturing. The past two years are a gift to the West, in particular deficit nations such as the United States, and they've not only wasted the opportunity, but selected the worst policy option every step of the way.

Countdown to WW3 and American Civil War 3

The U.S. has fought two civil wars: the Revolutionary War and the Civil War. The next one, if it happens, will be far more brutal. VD: The USA’s Last War

No matter which way you slice it, I suspect the war will turn into a variety of sieges of Blue cities by Red armies. This is exasperated by the fact that every state in Team Red is geographically contiguous, while every state in Team Blue is split into about three or four islands. The Republicans in the Spanish Civil War faced the same problem, and Franco’s plan to defeat in detail was made the path of least resistance by the drawing of the battle lines.

These sieges will be an absolute bitch. Not only will the massive concentration of urban buildings act as a natural fortress, the United States Interstate System was built to simultaneously serve as military infrastructure and urban fortifications. Ever notice how the Interstates loop around major cities like walls? Ever notice spaces dug for mortar pits, ammo dumps, staging areas for motor-pools (rest stops,) and that each major city has an international airport within that loop of Interstate wall? This is to say nothing about Air Defense assets, which combined with the International Airport will almost assure local air superiority for the defenders of blue cities. Also consider that the Urban battlefield has become 4d, as metro systems and other such tunnels will need to be fought through and won.

The war’s outcome will never be in doubt. But it will be long, and it will cost more lives than we’ve ever thought possible. I can assure the dear reader that America will never be the same afterwards.

The map of the 2016 election helps one visualize why a siege war would unfold. Most purple states and even some blue states like New York are an island of blue in a sea of red.

From the original source of the quotes above:

This will not be the romance of 1861-1865. Names and legends will be born, as they are in all wars, but they’ll be a small conciliation to the sheer weight of loss that will follow. I doubt it will break America, but it will age it. Even our ideals on the Right-Wing side of things, our justified hatred of the current order and hope to change it, won’t be enough. We may even forget it after the first five minutes, when no one will remember why the war was fought in the first place. Only that we’re Team Red and they’re Team Blue.

I find it very strange. Not thirty years ago, Gettysburg (1993) was released to great reception across the nation. Reenacting was widespread and commonplace. Old men, many veterans of WWII and Vietnam, looked back on that long past war as a reminder of their new national unity. Confederate flags were rarely given a second glance. Robert E. Lee was regarded as a great man, and both northerners and southerners felt old wounds had finally healed.

Now, any bar in America has a MAGA Boomer talking about the Second Civil War.

Time is a flat circle.

How likely is a civil war? I don't know. I do think that even in the rosiest of scenarios, the overturning of Roe points to the future. Blue and Red states are already ignoring federal laws on immigration and drugs. Red states and counties have hinted they'll ignore federal gun control laws. States are going to become very different places to live in. If worried about war, exit the cities. Live someplace that is deep red/blue because it's more likely those places will become more red or more blue to your liking if that's where you want to be, and to your frustration if not.

Will Russia Win?

Will Russia Win?

First, the Ukrainians are not fighting a guerrilla war. Instead, as the list of weapons they have asked the West to provide them with shows, they have been trying to wage a conventional one: tank against tank, artillery barrel against artillery barrel, and aircraft against aircraft. All, apparently, in the hope of not only halting the Russian forces but of expelling them. Given that the Russians can fire ten rounds for every Ukrainian one, such a strategy can only be a sure recipe for defeat.

This is complicated by the fact that Russia is mostly occupying ethnic Russian territory. They aren't, yet, going for the whole thing, though they might get it if Ukraine keeps fighting a conventional war against them.

Fourth, strict censorship is making the impact of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s population hard to asses. If there is any grumbling, it is being energetically suppressed. Meanwhile, a look at the macroeconomics seems to show that Russia is coping much better than many Westerners expected. Gold reserves have been inching up, enabling Putin to link his currency to gold—the first country to do so since Switzerland went in the opposite direction back in 1999. The Ruble, which early in the war came close to collapse, is back to a seven-year high against the dollar, trend upward. Given the fall in imports as well as the tremendous rise in energy prices, more money is flowing into Russia’s coffers than ever before.

The opposite is true in Europe, they are being wrecked. The U.S. is on balance fine, but at the cost of crushing the middle and lower class. A bonus for the Baizuo while in power, so long as they maintain power.

Should it continue, as it almost certainly will, it will give rise to growing popular discontent with the war and demands that their countries’ involvement in it be reduced or brought to an end. Even if that end means abandoning Ukraine and allowing Putin to have his way with it.

Peace is unequivocally the sane policy.

Last not least, beginning with the Enlightenment the West has long preened itself on being a fortress where liberty, law and justice prevail. Now the repeated, highly publicized, requisitioning of the property of so-called oligarchs is beginning to make some people wonder. First, no one knows what an “oligarch” is. Second, the fact that some “oligarchs” have been in more or less close touch with Putin over the years does not automatically turn them into criminals. Third, supposing they are criminals, it is not at all clear why they were left alone for so long and only began to be targeted after the war broke out. Could it be that, in combating the oligarchs, the West is undermining the justice of its cause?

The Globalist American Empire is an Empire of Lies. USG is a liar and rebelling against the Creator. At the intellectual level, it is approaching the level of the Soviets and Nazis when it comes to their false beliefs and propaganda. They not only deserve to lose, but anyone who loves Truth should be actively working to defeat the GAE regime in Washington, and for Americans, replace it with a regime focused on truth, justice and liberty. The GAE will lose. The Empire of Lies will collapse like the Soviet Union. The question for Americans as a people is will they go down with it? Thus far, the answer is yes.

Known Versus Unknown & Brandon in the Bunker

All the way down in the first half, at least until April or so, bullish investors were saying "everything is priced in." Day after day I would see sentiment indicators showing extreme bearishness. I ignored these because the market was not bearish, precisely because these bottom callers were constantly coming out of the woodwork. Additionally because they were almost always using data sets that only covered the previous bull market. 

"Everything is priced in" also doesn't work when mood changes because nothing is priced in. At the peak of the Nasdaq in November 2021 and S&P 500 Index in early January, nothing was priced in. When mood changes, the news flow turns negative. Not only is bad news not priced in, but more bad news is coming, day after day, week after week.

If a larger rally unfolds this summer, it will happen because two conditions will be satisfied. First, investors are sufficiently pessimistic such that they've priced in much worse news than is coming. This upcoming earnings season could be that. I wouldn't bet on it, but it is possible. Evidence would be provided by a bad earnings report by a major such as Apple resulting in a gain in the stock price. The other catalyst will be actual positive news, be it a Fed pivot (likely positive in the short-term only) or legitimately good news such as peaceful developments in Ukraine.

The downside scenario is that the market simply doesn't understand how bad the situation is here and ever more negative news continues rolling out. There's some risk there with Western governments behaving like Hitler in the bunker. The Biden admin has modeled for $200 oil and $10 gasoline, which would unleash a depression the likes of which hasn't been seen since the 1930s. I think that outcome is unlikely, but I also see no sign that the government cares in the slightest. These are the same people who did the lockdowns after all. Assuming they're sadistic people trying to maim and kill their own citizens has been a fairly good predictor of their policy choices. Becoming too political with economic and market forecasts is always a losing move, but then I've never in my life or U.S. history seen a government this destructive. I assume at some point they'll cry uncle on some issue, but they haven't yet. Here's the latest headline: Biden proposes limited drilling leases off Gulf of Mexico and Alaska

Administration officials said fewer lease sales — or even no lease sales at all — could occur, with a final decision not due for months.

The most bearish thing about the markets and economy right now is the Biden administration. They are making everything far worse than it needs to be. I honestly thought they would have done something positive by now, thus I've been moving "USG doing something good" from the unknown column to the known column, but in the negative.

The One Weird Trick Baizuo Are Using to Destroy the Middle Class and Financial Markets

Three main indicators to watch. Sell NQ below the line, along with the rest of the stock market. If BTC breaks down, aggressively short high confidence targets. If high yield funds such as HYG and JNK drop and treasuries keep rising, (look to IEI for a duration proxy) the sell line will be hit. After that, the odds of a major credit event and financial market collapse accelerate to the upside.

USDJPY looks ugly for Japan and the world financial markets. Nothing good comes from a higher yen.

How are the Baizuo destroying the world? Via their sadistic anti-Russia obsession. Commodities are cratering, the latest being cotton:

Oil should be much lower already, but it is not because of Baizuo foreign policy obsessions. Their green idiocy already laid an inescapable recession, but their foreign policy could be the difference between recession and depression. Everything is more expensive because the oil price continues rising. As long as oil stays high, there's no escaping economic decline. The Federal Reserve has to keep tight monetary policy because if credit or spending starting taking off, it would unleash the inflation seen in the 1970s, when the Fed chickened out on controlling inflation because it though the recession was worse. There's no good option here because high oil prices are like a huge tax on the economy.

This is also feeding into financial markets. The Japanese yen is being crushed by the rise in interest rates in countries such as the U.S. Japan desperately needs a lower oil price, which would stabilize bond markets and let the Fed ease its tightening approach. If instead the Baizuo escalate their psychotic green policies along with antagonizing Russia and, no doubt, encouraging China to join in with supply chain damage aimed at the U.S., then all the pieces are in place for a deflationary, depressionary collapse in the financial markets. Wholly owned, wholly owned by the Baizuo admin and their supporters. The Federal Reserve cannot remake foreign policy and undo the green agenda. They are bystanders. They screwed up a lot, but the collapse is on the Baizuo.

Prepare for a 1929-style implosion of stock and bond markets imminent if these policies are changed very soon.

U.S. and Canada Are At War With Russia

VD: Canada is at War with Russia

Troops are on the ground, but not a signficant amount.

My take: Russia was at war with the United States in North Korea and Vietnam, but it never escalated into a hot war. Iran was supporting Iraqi forces during the occupation and helped kill American soldiers, but it was not at war with the United States. The U.S. armed the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan. Nothing new here. Enemies will often help an enemy of their enemy. The problem I see is, are we back to a Cold War mentality with defined economic blocs and expectation that enemies will intervene in wars? Or is there greater risk of WWIII because these lines aren't clearly defined? It seems more like the latter than the former here.

Japan Should Unilaterally Lift Russia Sanctions

The yen and Japanese bonds could stabilize and people all over the world would benefit from lower energy prices. Even the Biden administration would benefit because Americans would care about gas prices falling, but not care that much about Biden being humiliated by Japan. There's a low political cost because America can't afford to isolate Japan in the current geopolitical situation. Very possible that if Japan warned they will do this, the Biden admin would fold and shift their policy first to avoid the embarassment. They've already admited the sanctions backfired privately. It's a matter of giving them the push to reverse policy.