Prepare for a Gold Miner Collapse

Gold mining stocks are imploding. There are three main reasons. One, bad stocks. Nothing can be done for them. Second is they didn't raise enough cash in the prior bull cycle. One of my former favorites, Maritime (MAE) is out of cash as the bear market hits full stride. Third are companies that are finally raising at horrible prices. LIO is an example of this. Both stocks are below March 2020 lows.

Benchmark hasn't been managed as poorly, yet it has also reversed everything.

Some silver and gold stocks:

It looks like a low could be put in, except I believe the bear market is about to kick off. I believe gold and silver stocks will implode. The time for stink bids is now.

Gold Analog Update: Bomb Bay Doors Open

Two weeks ago: Gold Screaming Deflationary Collapse

If the pattern proceeds as it did in 2011, inflation is going to die so suddenly you'd think it was vaxxed.

The top is now complete. The yellow horizontal added for the 2012 chart maps to the support broken today on GC. Last time, gold fell 14% in two days, including the break day. If the analog is strong, that suggests an extreme down move in gold is possible here.

Miners will follow if gold goes.

Apple is Going Down

Apple is exiting it's "bullzone" and Agnico Eagle, a gold miner I have July calls on, is exiting its "bear zone."

Charts of All My Current Option Positions

I'm going to start off with one that I want to re-enter, SMH. Popped today, but I see about 10 percent downside to the gap. I would not short this one now if I didn't expect a resumption of selling soon.

Here are three long positions (calls). A new low on GDX will get it kicked out. ditto for AEM if it loses support.

My largest position thanks to today's return. XLY is my largest notional position. A modest drop will make it the largest again.

The rest.

Rumors of a Gold Turn

Some comments: I have seen some good evidence to suggest gold mining stocks are are bottoming. Below are some charts of the larger miners. I am shopping for call options, already added AEM and mostly KGC. Looking for a quick pop right now. EQX has an inverse H&S. GDX reminds me of the UUP chart, but offset by about six months. UUP bottomed in January 2021. I do expect the dollar and gold will rise together in another panic event, and if expectations have shifted, investors should frontrun the central banks by adding miners earlier than before in any broad stock market downturn. RGLD has a topping pattern, but in a bull market that could fail. Lawrence Lepard posted the technical chart below that shows gold miners reaching what has been a good buy point in prior years.