Socionomics Alert: Avoid Norwegians to Avoid STDs

Socionomics theory says rates of STD infection should rise in periods of negative mood. Along with a general rise in disease/pandemic risk, the periods of negative mood also correlate to looser sexual morality.

The last major period of negative mood produced the AIDS virus and the subsequent rise in mood in the 1980s and 1990s saw a major effort towards combating it. This period of negative mood will be far more negative and last far longer than the 1970s decline. Antibiotic-resistant STDs and their rapid spread is one sign of negative mood.

Attitudes are changing towards STDs and sexual activity. Along with STD risk, there's the increased cancer risk caused by sodomy.

Boston Globe: Throat cancer and oral sex
American Cancer Society: Anal Cancer Rising Worldwide

Another is the risk of STDs. Here's an ad for condoms in Norway that is upsetting the locals. The key point here is not the ad itself, but what the people creating the ad are thinking about. During periods of falling mood people shift from social concern (such as banning smoking, attacking junk food, making life healthier for everyone) to a personal concern. This ad is clearly a sign warning you to protect yourself from everyone else. Social mood has turned.

Signs of a Bubble Bursting

Hard Landing in Norway?

Right-wing in Europe Reaching Critical Mass; Euro Bulls Should Read Polls, Not Charts

Notice the tone of the article, that somehow the right-wing is going to screw up the EU. This is because the EU has become a left-wing institution. However, there is a strong idea of a united Europe among the European people, and it wouldn't surprise to see the EU become right-wing. It could enforce a continent-wide restriction on immigration, for example.

Secessionists movements in Catalonia, Scotland and elsewhere are pro-EU in that they make more sense within the EU, the same way it would make sense for part of a U.S. state to become a new state within the U.S. If the EU falls apart due to nationalism, local secessionist movements will die out.

Watch out for the rise of a European Tea Party

In the coming year, however, the big danger to the European single currency is that the political consensus that underpins the euro could come unstuck. A weak economy, weariness with austerity, anger about immigration and resentment of a remote-seeming EU are fueling the ascent of anti-establishment and nationalist political parties across the continent.

These rising political forces are gaining ground in big EU countries such as France, the Netherlands, Britain and Italy – and also in smaller nations such as Greece, Hungary, Finland and Austria. Given that the EU requires unanimity for many big decisions, even a small state that goes rogue could cause real trouble.

I have seen the euro bulls becoming more bullish now that the debt crisis has been quiet for a couple of years and the euro is back in the mid 30s. This was always a political issue though, and next year is when the idea of an EU breakup for political reasons may finally become a mainstream topic. The above article is just the beginning; if you thought the Tea Party was hated, wait until you get a load of the hate that will be directed at UKIP, FN, and other anti-EU parties. They can do far more damage to the status quo in Europe, far beyond what the Tea Party would do even in its wildest dreams. Should the euro begin selling off, bond yields will rise and the crisis will be back. Right-wing parties are pro-cyclical in this regard: they are elected as anger at the EU rises. Their victories may lead to a weaker euro and more debt crises, which will increase anger at the EU and elect more right-wing politicians. If and when the EU falls apart, the egg will be all over the faces of the left. It will not be a great a loss as the fall of communism, but the left will be seriously damaged. Extremely bitter fights are coming in the next year.

Norweigan PM Goes With the Flow

Most Western governments continue to pursue peak social mood agendas, no more so than the United States. In Norway, however, an anti-immigration party has been welcomed as the only partner of the Conservative party.

Norway's Conservatives to form coalition with anti-immigration party

The leader of Norway's Conservative party has announced she is forming a rightwing minority government, the first to include the anti-immigration Progress party.

Erna Solberg, whose Conservatives finished second in this month's parliamentary election, will team up with the Progress party, which came third.

The two-party coalition is expected to introduce stricter immigration policies. Many Norwegians have called for a reduction in immigration, and the Progress party has capitalised on that feeling.

A minority right wing government is in power because the anti-immigrant party was willing to play ball, and the Conservatives were smart enough to take the offer.

Here's the key social mood point:

Post-war, rightwing coalitions have often been fractious and fallen apart in Norway, as they did in 1986, 1990 and 2000. If the current coalition doesn't last, the Labour party could quickly reclaim power, as it has three times since 1986.

Social mood says this right-wing coalition stands to break some records. I'm betting this coalition will hold together and flourish.

Norway Swings Right

This is a confirmation of socionomics against the common wisdom. After Anders Breivik massacred the children of left-wing politicians in an attempt to stop mass immigration from Muslim countries, the common wisdom looked for the right-wing to be punished. It helped, in this line of thinking, that Breivik was a member when he was young. Also, the party did slip a bit in 2011 following the massacre, but since then it has rebounded. Despite securing higher vote totals in prior elections, the center-right consistently refused to parter with anti-immgiration Progress, but that's all water under the bridge now.

Norway’s centre-right claims victory

It wants to stick to a rule that only 4 per cent of the oil fund’s value is allowed to be spent each year by the government. But the Progress party, which came third with 16.3 per cent, wants to spend more, particularly on infrastructure. The two centrist parties have also said they would refuse to be in government with Progress, known for its fierce anti-immigration views and for having Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in 2011, as a former member.

Two years after Breivik's massacre Norway's anti-immigration party verges on election success

Dozens of survivors of Breivik's massacre on Utøya island on July 22, 2011, mostly members of the Labor Party youth wing, are seeking office in the national election.

But the wave of sympathy for the Labor Party in the wake of the shooting spree seems to have evaporated and the Norwegian public seems ready for a new government after eight years.

...This swing to the right is illustrated by the policies of the Progress Party, rejected by the political consensus a decade ago, being widely accepted now, according to Professor Knut Heidar, of Oslo University’s Department of Political Science.

“The policies which [Progress] were proposing 10 years ago are now being accepted by all the parties, including Labor, in terms of integration, that immigrants should learn Norwegian and so on," said Heidar.

Events don't generate social mood. Social mood generates events. Breivik or no Breivik, Norway is moving to the right along with the rest of Europe, Asia and the Americas.