Boeing

We've Only Just Begun

I am strolling through the charts and seeing areas of the market that haven't even completed tops yet. It took 5 minutes of looking at charts to find these, this is the top of my giant pile of charts. And by top, I don't mean the best, though some are great. I mean I made it through only a sliver of all my watchlists and had enough charts for a short video.

Boeing and FedEx Remain Near Lifetime Support

Hottest CPI Since August 1982

That'll do it.

Here's BTC on the verge of collapse. I think it gets going sub-$18,000. Holding on right now along with stocks. I'm always paranoid about rallies and one could come in the morning, but I think the market will be busted from here into the tradable low that could be days away.

I'm keeping an eye out for all the stocks sitting on major support lines such as Boeing, FedEx and so on.

EEM lost final support in premarket. I drew a line just in case that cuts through the $32 area, but after that the only thing I see is the March 2020 low that is 16 percent lower. That isn't really support, but it could prove to be considering that's about the max decline I expect for the market here.

Boeing, FedEx and BTC

All three sitting at their lifetime support lines.

Trendlines Breaking or Soon Will Be

BXMT is giving me financial crisis vibes. It is one of many commercial lending and mortgage REITs out there, all getting blasted today.

Boring areas of the market start breaking in bear markets.

Financially-engineered (read leveraged) makes of spices. Many of these types of companies are out there. They lived by QE and now will die by higher rates.

BOeing and FedEx are sitting above very long-term support. If they break, there is no support until far lower.

I'm adding some energy shorts here with it outperforming today. I expect this will all reverse quickly barring something unexpected in geopolitics over the next few weeks.

Rally or Crash Charts

I have a zoomed out view of FedEx, the rest are zoomed in, but have broken long-term support lines. FDX faked lower and then rebounded. That's what it possible with the rest of the market here. The alternative is that like Nike, the market freefalls from here. There are divergences that suggest we are in "buy mode" for markets. The problem, again, is that crashes can happen with these divergences. Additionally, a massive short-term rally could be followed by much lower index values as it was in 2008. To say rally here doesn't say if its a day, days or a significant tradable low similar to June. I strongly lean towards former rather than the latter here on October 2 though.

Boeing Goes Boing

Boeing bounced off major support.

Coronavirus Booster Wave Charts

If the booster shots are causing cases to explode, we can expect another round of lockdowns in the totalitarian Blue states. Here are the best looking stocks in the crosshairs of the commies.

Out of Dollars: Chinese Airlines Blocked from Buying Boeing Planes

Only a couple of hours ago I posted What If China Can't Afford Imported Coal. Now I get back from a run and what headline comes across?

ZH: China Is Blocking Its Airlines From Buying "Tens Of Billions Of Dollars" In U.S. Made Boeing Airplanes

In what should serve as a wakeup call for the Biden administration about the climate of trade between the U.S. and China (but won't), China is reportedly blocking its domestic airlines from doing business with Boeing.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo made the revelation on Tuesday, according to Reuters, stating that Chinese airlines were being prevented from buying "tens of billions of dollars" in U.S. made airplanes.

Raimondo also pointed out that China wasn't living up to its promises made in 2020 to buy U.S. goods.

They think its a trade spat. Maybe it is. Or maybe there is smoke billowing from the Chinese side of the global economy.

Boeing

Boeing Failure

Long-term resistance held after a fakeout move higher and uptrend from March 2020 low was broken.

After All That We've Been Through, It All Comes Down

Well, here we are again
I guess it must be fate
We've tried it on our own
But deep inside we've known
We'd be back to set things straight

Market Correction: Done or Ready to Run?

Update: I sold my QQQ, still holding TLT. Added some DIS shorts in case the market takes a dive here. Leisure and hospitality will be hardest hit by strict quarantine measures or an outbreak.

Nothing in this post should be construed as trading advice, I'm posting solely to let readers know where my mind's at.

I've been heavily short in the market, but covered a lot of positions today and even took some long positions such as QQQ and short TLT. The VIX came close enough to tagging its downtrend. My speculative thought is the market will bottom when a large city such as New York City announces an outbreak and quarantine measures. However, that might not come for some time. I think today was probably an overreaction caused by not taking this virus serious. Plenty of people were shrugging it off on Monday even after outbreaks hit South Korea and Italy. I don't think we've reached full panic/capitulation by the "it's just the flu" people, but a news-driven correction needs news. On the other side, signals such as the VIX say a bounce is likely.

Palladium is a speculative indicator and it was a nice shade of green today. Meaningless by itself...

Tesla should be rattled in a major correction, but held up relatively well considering.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE) is falling after hours, but as I type this it is still above a recent support line. An extremely steeply sloping line if zoomed out.

Two trades I made today were Boeing (BA) and Domino's (DPZ). I sold a position in BA and used it to buy a position in DPZ (all puts). I'm still short BA. As for Domino's, delivery will not be spared in a pandemic. People will not want contact with drivers, drivers with customers, and workers may not show up. Plus there's a huge gap to fill.

I mentioned Peru and copper awhile back, and noted BAP as a potential short. It is nearing a support level now. Again, breaking it would be huge. But I'm not sure the time is right for the big move.

A Russell 2000 ETF tagged support today, but also fell below its January 2018 high.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq don't have much chart support here, but both have gaps to fill above.

I'm less bearish today given the downturn in stocks and recognition that coronavirus is a bigger deal than people understand. I expect the ignorant who ignored it until yesterday and today will eventually overshoot. I have been worried about coronavirus. I have made preparations at home in case the government imposes a quarantine or I choose to self-quarantine. Having said that, I was more worried when everyone was ignoring the virus. The faster authorities and the public realize it's a problem and change their behavior, the less one needs to worry. The past two days was the start of that recognition in the USA. Similarly, the sell-off is the initial shock hitting markets.