Silicon Valley Spanked Shares

I posted a bunch of times on the formerly named Silicon Valley Bancshares. It collapsed this morning. I wasn't in the trade at the time, haven't messed with SIVB in awhile, but I expected it would evenutally makes its way lower because it is at the crossroads of technology and banking. Fitting that today's plunge comes hours after Silvergate (SI) announced it would liquidate, a stock I said could fall 80 percent a year ago. SBNY was another target that has recently come in for a pummeling.

SVB Financial stock plummets toward biggest one-day selloff in 23 years after stock offering, large losses on securities sales I'm going to keep digging in a post more over at the Substack later.

The Bear is Back: What Goes Up, Must Come Down

I don't care what sends the market down, but if you make my guess, my hunch is earnings warnings.

Bye Banks

Rollovers

Bomb Bay Doors Open

An intraday bounce is probably coming, but the weakness in the very areas I discussed before the open is clearly evident. Whenever this stuff breaks, my question is does it stay contained or does it become a generalized decline that takes down the whole market?

Wayfair Plunges Tomorrow

I think Tesla could get to $900 too, if Biden has hinted at a higher-than-expected CPI number.

Reuters: Biden says inflation data due Friday will not reflect recent drop in some prices

President Joe Biden sought to reassure Americans on Thursday that rises in consumer prices were easing somewhat, saying that inflation data for November due out on Friday would not reflect a recent drop in some prices including energy costs.

Maker forecast is 0.7 percent. I don't know if it is worse or not. That would raise the 12-month, but it'll take 0.9 percent to get a 7-handle.

Wayfair and Tesla are at support. The Russell 2000 futures crosses below the 1-year moving average again. IWM hasn't yet. If CPI comes in high tomorrow, I'm expecting a big down day for tech and related growth/momentum.

BTC looking ugly too.

This could be a bear trap. Maybe it's a dip and stocsk rip higher tomorrow or next week. I just want that caveat there to anyone taking on risk. I take on risks I can live with. I can reverse position at any time and do. But right now, I am betting the correction resumes tomorrow. XLY, TWLO, AAPL, UUP (calls) are my 4 largest positions. I have weekly options expiring tomorrow on ROKU, W, and XLE because I do think tomorrow could have some fireworks.

Financials

XLF rebounded above the March 2020 support line.

Shorting Strength Worked

SIVB and SBNY had relative strong charts, but both broke similar support lines today. SIVB from March 2020 and SBNY from November 2020.

Apple doesn't have an insane chart like say POOL or INTU, but it notable went to a new high today.

Selling strong bank charts worked today because the market expectation reversed with the Fed Chairman sounding hawkish on inflation. The crowd and momentum buyers end up stock in position when the tide turns against them. If the market rallies here (hopefully not since I'm not positioned for it), a stock like Apple could become a tantalizing short in a few days or weeks. As would any other stock that the bulls pile into during a relief rally.

Charts of All My Current Option Positions

I'm going to start off with one that I want to re-enter, SMH. Popped today, but I see about 10 percent downside to the gap. I would not short this one now if I didn't expect a resumption of selling soon.

Here are three long positions (calls). A new low on GDX will get it kicked out. ditto for AEM if it loses support.

My largest position thanks to today's return. XLY is my largest notional position. A modest drop will make it the largest again.

The rest.