Today's 5hit List

One of my screens looks for stocks that have declines on larger than normal volume. I can't tag every stock on this list, but a lot of these stocks have been posted on this blog in the past year. ABT ALGN ALK ALL AUB AWI AWR BLD BX CATY CBU CMA CSL DHR DOV EEFT EFX EL EW EWBC EXPE FELE FITB FLNC HRI HUBG INDB IRDM JKS KEY KMI KMPR KNX LAD LBRT LESL MTB MTCH NEE NKE NSC NTES NTRS OLPX OZK PEN PNFP PNR POOL PPG RBC RF RGEN RHI RNR SCI SGEN SITE SIVB SKX SMPL SNA SNV TCBI THG THS TMO TRMK TSCO TSLA UA UNP VLY VMC WAL WDFC WHR WOOF WSO WU XEL ZION

Playing With SlopeTools: Expensive Consumer Goods

I've posted this chart before, five "expensive" consumer goods companies. RVs, four-wheelers, expensive lawn care machines, swimming pools. The thesis: inflation will curtail these middle-class luxuries. These are all items that will see their purchases delayed when household finances become tight. These would all be good long targets if and when wage growth finally exceeds inflation...

Sun Communities (SUI): Sun Communities, Inc. is a REIT that, as of September 30, 2020, owned, operated, or had an interest in a portfolio of 432 communities comprising nearly 146,000 developed sites in 32 states and Ontario, Canada.

Pool (POOL): Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products in the United States and internationally.

Toro (TTC) :The Toro Company engages in the designing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling professional and residential equipment worldwide. The company's Professional segment offers turf and landscape equipment products, including sports fields and grounds mowing and maintenance equipment, golf course mowing and maintenance equipment, landscape contractor mowing equipment, landscape creation and renovation equipment, and other maintenance equipment; rental, specialty, and underground construction equipment; and snow and ice management equipment, such as snowplows, brush, snow thrower attachment, salt and sand spreaders, and related parts and accessories for light and medium duty trucks, utility task vehicles, skid steers, and front-end loaders.

Polaris (PII): Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets power sports vehicles worldwide. It operates through six segments: ORV, Snowmobiles, Motorcycles, Global Adjacent Markets, Aftermarket, and Boats.

Thor (THO): Thor Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells recreational vehicles (RVs), and related parts and accessories in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

I used two tools at SlopeCharts for the chart below. One was auto-trendline from the top and bottom. The other was a regression line for the entire period.

Here are the individual charts. What I see is either major topping patterns or very long-term trend that has stayed in the upper half. PII may be the best example. There are two breaks through the middle trendline and the result was a plunge to long-term support. A repeat would send the stock down more than 50 percent from here. The only one of these I have puts on right now is POOL.

SITE is another stock that expanded similar to POOL. Has a great setup too. I left this, and others out of the index, because I think 5 is a good enough sampling. Speculators should be going through all the companies in these sectors, no doubt there are many more bearish setups.

More Screen Results

I took the 52-week low condition off and added a one-month minimum loss of 10 percent. Produced a list of 77 stocks. The best looking ones that I haven't posted already are below. To reiterate the theme of the weekend, all of this junk is still well above fundamental valuation. It doesn't matter if it is down 40 percent already, it is going to suffer a couple more 40 percent losses before bottoming out. The question for the next week is whether the headline indexes start catching down to this stuff or of this stuff bounces. The market has always bounced before, but the carnage beneath the hood in the Nasdaq is screaming bear market. I've included more IPOs, mostly 2020 and 2021 vintage. The three most common themes that I see are biotech, recent IPOs, and ARK holdings.