Don't Let Them See You Cry

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Bear Market Case Study: HUBS

I posted this HUBS quite a few times, there are 10 prior posts. This stock met two criteria: a vertical rise and "the price is too damn high." I think many of these patterns will eventually resolve similarly. Many stocks, including biggies like Tesla and Google, have similar patterns.

HUBS may be ready for a bounce, or not. The best part of "the price is too damn high" is how low it can go. This is probably headed for the $200 area down the road, another 60 percent decline from here. It's intraday low today was more than 37 percent below its intraday high. It is about halfway through its decline, but the next loss will be much larger in percentage terms.

Another one that extended its losses today was Sea (SE).

Bomb Bay Doors Open

An intraday bounce is probably coming, but the weakness in the very areas I discussed before the open is clearly evident. Whenever this stuff breaks, my question is does it stay contained or does it become a generalized decline that takes down the whole market?

Bear Trap or Next Leg Down Incoming?

Biotech was green earlier today and then reversed.

Biotech was a decent short at the horizontal yesterday, but who knows how it will finish the year. More interesting are some of ARK's holdings that haven't gotten off the mat. I already posted SQ earlier today, that is one. TWLO and SE are two more. roKU and U don't look particularly strong either. The question is bear trap or weakness? Given I think the rally will run out of steam, I lean bearish.

This one isn't in Cathy's portfolio, but looks ready to go.

ARKK Holdings Still Sinking

I still have puts on these two, I loaded up on Monday's rally. I also added XLE as per the last post, once it got the violet line. Will exit if above.

Charts of All My Current Option Positions

I'm going to start off with one that I want to re-enter, SMH. Popped today, but I see about 10 percent downside to the gap. I would not short this one now if I didn't expect a resumption of selling soon.

Here are three long positions (calls). A new low on GDX will get it kicked out. ditto for AEM if it loses support.

My largest position thanks to today's return. XLY is my largest notional position. A modest drop will make it the largest again.

The rest.