Fertility Crash: Negative Mood, the Vaxx or Both?

Two tweets I saw passed around thsi weekend looked at Germany's and the Netherlands' drop in fertility.

Unless there is a vaxx and unvaxxed control group, the drop could be mainly driven by social mood. If mood is driving it, the drop will accelerate around August or September (mapping to the stock market peak rather than vaccinations) and continue sliding for at least six months.

Here are the Germany and Netherlands country ETFs. They peakedin May and August 2021, respectively.

Dutch Election: Exit Polls

Assuming the Dutch polls are as accurate as before, it points to a big win for the ruling VVD.

No surprise looking at the stock chart, which shows a breakout to new all-time highs this year.

Turkish Social Mood Still Declining

After noticing a major head-and-shoulders pattern in iShares Turkey (TUR), I wrote: Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East? Socionomics uses financial markets as a measure of mood and the chart was saying there was a chance mood was about to go ultra-negative:

All of which is to say, I can see the Turkey ETF (TUR) hitting single digits solely through currency depreciation and financial crisis. There's enough fuel there for it. However, geopolitical developments concern because they are likely to deteriorate along with the economy. If the chart is correct, economics and politics are going to get much worse for Turkey in the months ahead. Of course, the chart might reverse and the pattern may break, making a short of TUR a bad trade and a forecast of instability a wrong one. If it doesn't, Turkey may quickly become the new center of attention in the Middle East.

I wrote that in August 2015. In the next 18 months, Turkey was involved in the downing of a Russian fighter jet, an attemped coup and the assassination of the Russian ambassador on Turkish soil.

Now Turkey is in another fight on the eve of the Dutch elections. Geert Wilders is near the top of the polls and he is critical of Islamic immigration. The current government doesn't want Turkish government officials flying into Turkey because they are whipping up support for a referendum in Turkey in support of President Erdogan. This lays bare the fact that many foreigners in the West are not assimilating and, since Erdogan is painted as anti-democratic and anti-liberal, highlights the tension between Islamic migration and the native cultures of Europe. In the past few days, the President of Turkey called the Dutch Nazis, and the Dutch PM, who is pro-Islamic immigration, called Erdogan nuts.

The Dutch government, which is set to lose about half its seats in elections this week as the anti-Islam party of Geert Wilders makes strong gains, said the ministers' visits were undesirable and it would not cooperate in their political campaigning in the Netherlands.

Erdogan warned the Netherlands that "if you can sacrifice Turkish-Dutch relations for an election on Wednesday, you will pay the price," during an awards ceremony in Istanbul. "I thought Nazism was dead, but I was wrong. Nazism is still widespread in the West," he said. "The West has shown its true face." Speaking to reporters before a public appearance in the northeastern French city of Metz, Cavusoglu said Turkey would continue to act against the Netherlands until it apologizes.

Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he would do everything to "de-escalate" the confrontation, which he described as the worst the Netherlands had experienced in years. But he said the idea of apologizing was "bizarre".

"This is a man who yesterday made us out for fascists and a country of Nazis. I’m going to de-escalate, but not by offering apologies. Are you nuts?" he told a morning talk show.

Supporting Rutte's decision to ban the visits, the Dutch government said there was a risk of Turkish political divisions flowing over into its own Turkish minority, which has both pro- and anti-Erdogan camps. It cited public order and security worries in withdrawing landing rights for Cavusoglu's flight.

Turkey fired back saying the Dutch ambassador to Ankara should not return from leave "for some time". Erdogan is looking to the large number of Turks living in Europe, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, to help secure victory next month in a referendum that would give the presidency sweeping new powers.

CNN: Protests after Netherlands bars Turkish official's plane from landing

Protests broke out in Rotterdam and in front of Dutch diplomatic missions in Turkey on Saturday after the Netherlands barred a plane carrying Turkey's foreign minister from landing to stop him from addressing a political rally in the port city.

The Dutch government announced that Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's flight permit was revoked amid concerns over public order at the expected large gathering of Turkish expatriates.

Al Jazeera: Mevlut Cavusoglu continues verbal assault on Holland

Turkey's leaders continued their verbal assault on the Netherlands on Sunday with its foreign minister accusing his NATO ally of being "the capital of fascism".

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made the comments in France where he spoke to whip up support among Turkish immigrants for constitutional reforms to expand the powers of the Turkish presidency.

On Saturday, Cavusoglu was denied landing rights by the Netherlands, where he planned to hold a rally in Rotterdam. Holding political rallies for another country's domestic policies is illegal in Holland.

...The latest row came after NATO allies Turkey and Germany sparred over the cancellation of a series of referendum campaign events there.

"The West has clearly shown its true face in the last couple of days," Erdogan said. "What we have seen in the last days is a clear manifestations of Islamophobia."

..."The biggest problem in this case is that Turkey is talking about Turkish citizens who they want to talk to," Rutte said. "These are Dutch citizens who possibly also have voting rights in Turkey."The behavior of protestors indicate they consider themselves Turks, not Dutch, no matter what their passport may say. Protestors attack police and rioted after learning the foreign ministers would not be allowed to conduct a Turkish campaign rally on Dutch soil.

Daily Mail: Police blast protesters with water cannons in Rotterdam after Turkish ministers are refused entry to Holland, prompting Erdogan to label the Dutch 'Nazi fascists'

And then there's is Geert Wilders take on the situation, which boils down to: Turks go home.

The Dutch election is Wednesday.