2019-12-24

Here Comes Another RRR Cut

iFeng: 新一轮降准在路上!什么时候降?房价会涨吗?
Heavy! A new round of RRR cuts may be coming!

This is not a market forecast, but an official statement.

On December 23, while attending the China-Japan-Korea Leadership Meeting, Premier Li Keqiang stated during a visit to Chengdu, Sichuan that the state will further study various measures such as RRR cuts and targeted RRR cuts , refinancing and rediscounting to reduce real interest rates And comprehensive financing costs, it has significantly eased the financing difficulties and expensive financing problems for small and micro enterprises.

...Lian Ping predicts that in 2020, the central bank will also cut open market operations and medium-term borrowing convenience operation rates by 10 to 15 basis points , and continue to cut the benchmark by 100 basis points.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing predicts that in 2020, there may be another two to three general reductions of 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points . Among them, before the Spring Festival may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points.

China Everbright's solid-income team analysts believe that the probability of a reduction in early January 2020 is high for two reasons. First, the Spring Festival of this year is January 25, and the scale of cash injection in the banking system before the Spring Festival will be larger than usual. Second, a large number of local government bonds will be issued at the beginning of January next year, which will also require medium and long-term liquidity injection.

As for time, some experts predict that the RRR cut may soon land. This Friday may be an important time window to observe whether the standards have been lowered .

2019-12-18

Credit Guarantees Yet Again, In Shandong

Bloomberg: Defaults in One of China’s Richest Provinces Spook Investors
The problem isn’t the defaults themselves -- other provinces have seen more and worse. It’s the practice common among Shandong companies of guaranteeing each others’ debts. Firms don’t have to make public these liabilities, leaving investors to wonder who’s on the hook and for how much. With the once-strong industrial economy flagging, the murky ties between the province’s private companies threaten to drag them all down together.

This is one of many challenges bond investors must grapple with in China now, after defaults onshore climbed from zero just a few years ago to 130.7 billion yuan ($18.7 billion) in 2019. In Shandong and elsewhere, it’s still unclear how the government will intervene. Policy makers have been increasingly willing to let weak companies fail, but they’re also under pressure to keep the economy growing and the markets stable.

As of now, Shandong’s city and local governments have stepped in with piecemeal relief. It’s uncertain whether the provincial government will do the same. As a result, the province’s firms risk entering a vicious cycle that “spreads solvency risks to the entire region, swamping the good credits along with the bad,” according to an October report from S&P Global Ratings.
There are two main forms of credit guarantee blow-ups. One is a key firm goes down, triggers default protection and banks start calling in loans on many companies in the industry or geographic region. The other is a credit guarantee firm, running a business model similar to AIGs before 2008, goes bust.

This is not a new problem. China dealt with worse in 2014/2015 and papered over the problem. Since the prior cycle, governments became active in providing credit guarantees. Lately it has been aimed at science and technology firms. See 中南建设:为7家企业提供共计30.95亿元担保 and 辽宁五市设立科技融资担保公司 科技型企业将享专业化融资担保服务 If the economy picks up, they should have little trouble doing the same.

For those keeping time at home, credit guarantee blowups came in the earlier part of the economic downturn last time and peaked near the end of the downturn in China. Global financial markets would not bottom for another 6 to 8 months. Is trouble in Shandong an outlier event at the end of a downturn or a sign that a larger magnitude downturn is underway? We'll soon find out in 2020 once the initial blast of rushed infrastructure spending wears off.

Prior coverage

2014

Rumored Mass Death of Companies in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou If Banks Collect on Debts; Government Tells Banks to Sit Tight or Leave
Ye Tan's Commentary on Xiaoshan: Get Government Out of Credit Markets
Steel Trade Lawsuits Explode; Banks' Unceasing Nightmare; Defendants Flee
Credit Guarantee Firms Go Down Like Dominoes
Credit Guarantee Nightmare; How The Qingdao Port Scandal Goes Viral
Largest Privately Run Credit Guarantee Firm in Sichuan Goes Bust


2015

The Credit Dominoes Are Falling Again; Northeast Faces Deflationary Collapse Without Bailout
Hebei Credit Collapse: State Owned Credit Guarantee on the Brink as AIG Business Model Falters
"The profit model is an important reason for the large-scale collapse of credit guarantee firms, a 2% profit is not sufficient for taking on 100% of the risk."

Shandong has seen credit guarantees blow up before, in 2017: Shandong Bad Debt Daisy Chains Exploding, Loanshark City Falls on Hard Times
A blanket of liquidity covered up bad debt for more than a year, but "neutral" monetary policy has revealed the underlying problem once more. iFeng has an entire special section devoted to Shandong's exploding daisy chain

2019-12-17

Bitcoin Says Achtung Baby

Bitcoin is breaking below a 4-year support line that stretches back to August 2015. If Bitcoin is a new version of tulip bulb mania, it can implode into its own footprint. Even if it is tulip bulbs, and certainly if not, it is also an indicator of speculative mood. Divergence from the broader stock market bears watching here.

2019-12-12

Working Through the Crisis Checklist: Largest Dollar Bond Default

Bloomberg: China Suffers Biggest Dollar Bond Default By State-Owned Company in Two Decades
A major Chinese commodities trader became the biggest dollar bond defaulter among the nation’s state-owned companies in two decades, in a moment of reckoning for Beijing as it struggles to contain credit risk in a weakening economy.

Tewoo Group Corp. announced results of its unprecedented debt restructuring, which saw a majority of its investors accepting heavy losses. This is expected to reshape investors’ perceptions about government-owned borrowers whose identity has for years offered a relatively strong sense of security.

It’s also seen offering a road-map for resolving similar debt crises in the future as the prospect of more failures by state-backed firms looms.

The one-time Fortune Global 500 company from the northern port city of Tianjin said dollar bond investors representing 57% of the the total $1.25 billion have agreed to be paid just 37 to 67 cents on the dollar, depending on the maturity of the debt.
Eurodollars went to money heaven.
Tewoo’s failure in the dollar bond market, the biggest for a Chinese SOE since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp. in 1998, is a sign that the worst economic slowdown in three decades is limiting Beijing’s capacity to bail out its weaker state firms.
China's early 2000s bailout was trivially easy. It was 4th grade math easy. Bank balance sheets vs govt balance sheets and GDP growth rate. The govt could easily afford a huge bailout. This time, growth is slowing and the govt balance sheet cannot expand without negative impact on the wider economy.

2019-12-11

Social Credit for Domestic and Foreign Companies Too

Back in 2018 I warned, If I was running a visible American brand in China, I'd be thinking about lowering my profile right now. . Nothing much has happened to this point in terms of boycotts, but the pieces are in place for a much stronger crackdown.

Breitbart: China Uses ‘Social Credit System’ to Control Domestic, Foreign Companies
Bloomberg News provided the example of China Railway Construction Corporation, a company that covered up some fatalities on a railroad project in Mongolia, got caught, and was banned from doing business for a year as well as being “subject to more inspections, limits on bidding for public projects and restrictions on issuing bonds and shares.” And those were only the immediate consequences – there is no telling how long the demerits fed into the social credit system will haunt the company and its managers across every province of China.

“The system will be widely used in China to oversee domestic and foreign companies, and firms have to assign resources to keep a real eye on making sure their records are clean,” noted Andrew Polk of the Trivium China consulting firm.

...The Chinese government is not shy about warning that American companies could be blacklisted as part of the trade war, or in retaliation for U.S. criticism of Chinese policies such as the internment of Uyghur Muslims in concentration camps.

Chinese Credit Growth Still Slowing

iFeng: 中国11月M2货币供应同比增长8.2% 新增人民币贷款1.39万亿元
At the end of November, the broad money (M2) balance was 196.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The narrow currency (M1) balance was 56.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. The growth rate was 3.5%, and the growth rates were 0.2 and 2 percentage points higher than those at the end of last month and the same period of the previous year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 7.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. Net cash invested in the month was 57.8 billion yuan.

21st Century: 企业贷款规模大幅增长 社融大增下M2增速仍回落
On December 10, the social financing scale data released by the People's Bank of China showed that after the trough in October, the social financing scale and credit placement in November both improved significantly, and the overall scale was higher than market expectations.

The data shows that the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in November 2019 was 1.75 trillion yuan, 150.5 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, and a significant increase of 1.13 trillion yuan from October; the RMB loans increased by 1.39 trillion yuan in November. , A year-on-year increase of 138.7 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 728.7 billion yuan.

In terms of structure, the reason why the scale of credit injection in November exceeded market expectations was mainly due to the increase in corporate loans. Data show that in November, non-financial corporate and government group loans (referred to as "corporate loans") rebounded significantly, from 126.2 billion yuan in October to 679.4 billion yuan in November.

"Overall, both credit and social financing have been heavy this month. On the one hand, it is related to the low level of credit and social financing last month. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said.
iFeng: 11月新增信贷、社融双双超预期,释放什么信号?
Regarding the fall in M2 data, Wen Bin pointed out to the International Financial News reporter that from the perspective of the increase of RMB 1.39 trillion in RMB loans in November compared with the previous month and the same period last year, an increase of RMB 7287 and 140 billion, in principle, credit derivatives The enhancement of capacity should promote the growth of M2, but it is lower than expected from last month, indicating that the currency tightening was caused by other reasons.

"On the one hand, fiscal deposits decreased by 245.1 billion yuan in November, but decreased by 419.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year; on the other hand, foreign exchange reserves in November decreased by 9.6 billion US dollars. It is expected that foreign exchange contributions will also fall and currency investment will be weakened." Wen Bin explained that although the currency growth slowed in November, credit and social financing still exceeded expectations and played a supporting role in the real economy.

The Bank's Financial Research Center stated that M1 was hovering at a low level and rebounded slightly, and the central bank's liquidity control remained mainly stable. In November, M1 rebounded 0.2 percentage points from last month, reaching 3.5%. However, historically, the growth rate of M1 is still hovering at a low level, which largely reflects the need to strengthen the strength of monetary policy on the credit side, and the vitality of corporate operations needs to be improved. The growth rate of M2 was basically stable, falling by 0.2 percentage points. The reasons may be various factors, including the deceleration of bond issuance at the end of the year, and the expenditure intensity at the end of the fiscal year was less than expected. In general, the general stability of broad-based liquidity has laid the foundation for policy development early next year.

"Short-term liquidity will have seasonal support, and there will be incremental releases across the years. According to the current pace of financing needs, it is unlikely that the central bank will quickly increase liquidity to push up M2. And CPI breaks up again, even if monetary policy requires The pace of development will be slower. "The Bank's Financial Research Center predicts that the 1 trillion local special debt plan issued earlier in the year will actually be issued in December. Under the pressure of subscription agencies' payment, the central bank may use quantitative tools in advance. , Such as the accuracy reduction.
China has no answers for its slowing growth:
It is reported that 2020 is the year when a well-off society will be fully established and the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” will be completed. Some people in the industry said that, from the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the People ’s Republic of China, the growth of economic policy next year is still the most important issue. In order to ensure stable economic growth, macroeconomic policies will increase countercyclical adjustment. Stable infrastructure will be an important starting point for achieving steady growth.
iFeng: 11月金融数据全面回暖,下阶段货币政策如何发力
As the CPI announced on the same day rose by 4.5% year-on-year and reached a new high of nearly 8 years, Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, believes that monetary policy operations may be restrained to some extent. A few days ago, the central bank stated that it must adhere to the goal of currency stability, and it is expected that the possibility of further interest rate cuts will decrease. The primary goal of monetary policy will be marginal conversion based on economic growth and inflation.

Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping believes that even if the monetary policy needs to be vigorous, the pace will be slower. "Of course, the 1 trillion local special debt plan issued earlier in the year was actually issued in December. Under the pressure of subscription agencies, the central bank has the possibility of using quantitative tools in advance, such as lowering standards."
One stat worth considering should anyone think a rebound similar to 2012 and 2016 is in the cards: if M2 keeps growing at 8 percent and forex reserves hold steady, by this time next year reserve coverage of M2 will fall below 10 percent with USDCNY below 6.90. Factor in falling reserves or faster credit growth, the picture worsens much more quickly. Reserves can rise, but then expect more trade tension.

Reserves don't matter until they matter. They don't matter as much with strict capital controls. CPI is running at 5 percent though, thanks to pork inflation. Injecting credit into a high CPI environment risks sparking sustained inflation. Chinese do not have to take money out of China to flee the yuan, they can buy property, equities, and precious metals among other options.

2019-12-10

Checkup on DJIA yo 30-year Bond Price Ratio

Chinese Headline CPI Spikes on Porkflation, PPI Still Deflating

The spike in pork prices finally made it into the headline CPI in November. It's very likely the CPI will crack 5 percent for all of 2019.

NBS: 2019年11月份居民消费价格同比上涨4.5%

NBS: 2019年11月份工业生产者出厂价格同比下降1.4%

Talent War Could Cause Housing Shortages in Some Cities

No wonder the CCP is happy with the current state of the real estate market. Between tight controls and talent wars, some markets may experience housing shortages.

The grab war referenced below is the talent war, grabbing people.

Aside from being a real estate issue, it again highlights the big difference between Chinese and American development policy. The "demographic deficit" is driving up the value of native workers in China and driving it down in the USA. Wages are up and relative housing costs down in China. Cities offer rent subsidies and even pay worker's taxes for them! In the USA, mass immigration drives down wages and drives up real estate costs, in addition to creating all manner of externalities that are costs for natives. In both cases, there is a "haves and have nots" situation. The best run cities win in China and those left behind don't benefit. But there are areas of the USA left behind as well, and unlike in China, young people who move to the city aren't given a basket of goodies for doing so, instead they have to move into a slightly less worse situation. Clearly, China's policy will run into some issues, but on the whole, it is a far more intelligent development strategy for the long-term, for social stability alone.


iFeng: 百城加入“抢人大战”行列 多城或面临“房荒”困局
From the first-tier and second-tier cities to the third-tier and fourth-tier cities, the "talent battle" has intensified in all cities across the country in recent years. According to the latest “Personnel Policies and Anju Employment Report 2019” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) released by 58 cities and Anjuke, more than 100 cities including Tianjin, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Nanjing have introduced talent policies throughout the country this year. New settlement policies have been introduced in 30 cities.

"Daily Economic News" reporters noticed that in this "grabbing war", Xi'an, Ningbo, Ma'anshan, Changsha and other cities have made regulations on talent policies, housing purchase and sales behavior. Obviously, these cities are trying to attract talents by lowering their entry thresholds, raising housing purchases, and renting subsidies.

However, will this "talent battle" be transmitted to the real estate market? Are the purchase restriction gates in various places being opened in disguise? With the influx of new populations, will these cities face the problem of “housing shortage”?
"Grab the War" to further upgrade

The most direct impact of the implementation of talent policy is the growth of the population.

Around 2010, with the rapid economic growth, the population of large domestic cities has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth of the permanent population has almost exceeded 100,000. From 2012 to 2016, the population growth of large cities has slowed down relatively, including Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Xi'an, Hefei and other cities. The average annual net population growth of only tens of thousands of people, close to the natural population growth rate.

Since 2017, many large cities have introduced talent settlement policies, which has led to rapid population growth. For example, in Xi'an, the relaxation of college graduate registration policies in 2017 increased the household registration population by the end of the year. At the beginning of 2018, Xi'an again relaxed the settlement requirements and allowed immediate family members to move with their families. The population growth of household registration accelerated again, and the household registration population increased by 70 at the end of 2018. More than 10,000 people. Wuhan, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities also introduced a large population through talent policies in 2017 and 2018.
Some cities are even paying taxes for younger workers:
The "Report" shows that in addition to regular settlement and subsidies, some cities have introduced more personalized policies. Take Guangzhou as an example. For overseas high-end talents and talents in short supply who work in the Greater Bay Area, the portion of the personal income tax paid in the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta that has paid more than 15% of their taxable income is calculated by The People's Government of the Nine Triangle Areas provides financial subsidies that are exempt from personal income tax.
Some cities may face "housing shortage"

The entry of a large number of new people will inevitably stimulate the supply and demand of the local property market.

According to incomplete statistics, there are currently nearly 40 cities that have introduced talent purchase policies. Hot cities are in full swing, and more cities have yet to wake up. The urban population battle has just begun and is far from over.

The "Report" shows that many cities have made special provisions on talent purchase policies this year. For example, Hainan has introduced policies to reduce the number of years of social security or individual taxation for housing purchases to one year from the original two or five years for all kinds of talents actually introduced and working in Hainan but not yet settled.

When these cities open their arms to people, their attention has naturally increased. From the aspect of living, according to the data of 58 city and Anjuke platform, from January to October 2019, the number of new house visits in Xi'an, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities is much higher than that of first-tier cities. , Wuhan, Shenyang, and Ningbo all visited more than 20% of the heat.

2019-12-09

No Mention of Real Estate Signals CCP Content With Current Situation

iFeng: 政治局会议未提房地产是何信号?楼市数据不支持调控放松
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study economic work in 2020. This meeting did not mention real estate related content, what signals did this reveal?

From July 24, 2017 to December 6, 2019, nine sessions of the Central Political Bureau focusing on the economy have been held. During this period, six meetings made important statements on the real estate market. The three meetings on October 31, 2018, December 13, 2018 and December 6, 2019 did not mention real estate.

From this year's perspective, the Politburo meetings held in April and July 2019 both emphasized "adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation." The July meeting even emphasized "not using real estate as a short-term Means to stimulate the economy. "
While the central govt wants the real estate market contained, local govts do not:
Reducing the economy's dependence on real estate, and not using real estate to stimulate the economy in the short term, does not mean that local governments do not want to develop the real estate industry. The real estate industry itself is connected to finance, and even to the physical industries such as building materials. The volume is large, and local governments at any level will not neglect the industry.
Keeping prices in check requires scientific central planning:
Under this principle, whether the real estate policy needs to be adjusted depends on what actually happened in the local real estate market. Overheating will be tightened, and overcooling will need to be relaxed. If the market is stable, the policy will also need to be stable. These adjustment costs This is the due meaning of the property market regulation, and it is also where the powers granted by the central government to the locality lie.

However, if local governments adjust real estate regulation and control policies, they must still grasp the timing and scale. Otherwise, the market will fluctuate sharply. It will obviously deviate from the "three stability" goal and the possibility of being stopped by the central government will be very high.
The government is in the Goldilocks planning zone for now:
Under such circumstances, there is no basis and necessity for directional adjustment of real estate regulation and control policies, and overall stability is still the main focus. The December Politburo meeting didn't mention real estate at all, but it also shows that the industry itself does not currently have a significant need for policy adjustments, that is, the entire real estate regulation and control policy has no turning requirements.

Shenzhen Rents Plummet 40pc

A crackdown on P2P lenders has hit the real estate market and it should last into 2020, but analysts see growth in the long-term as the government promotes the development of a megacity linking Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau.

iFeng: 火爆的深圳楼市 部分写字楼租金却暴跌40%
Compared with Shenzhen's fiery second-hand homes, Shenzhen office buildings with rising vacancy rates and falling rents are in a "cold array."

A reporter from China Securities News (ID: xhszzb) recently visited the office buildings in the central areas of Futian and Nanshan and learned that the rental prices of some office buildings have fallen by more than 40%.

Industry insiders pointed out that the "cold winter" of the Shenzhen office market was related to previous P2P thunderstorms. After the exit of related financial companies, the vacancy rate increased; after the increase in office supply in new areas such as Qianhai, office rents in the central area could not rise significantly in the short term.

Industry insiders predict that the Shenzhen office market will hardly show signs of improvement in 2020; however, in the medium and long term, under the effect of the policies of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Pilot Demonstration Area, Shenzhen office buildings may continue to grow and are expected to enter a stage of steady development.

2019-12-06

Is It May Again?

Back in May:

Today:

Doesn't feel as clean a moment as in May, but maybe Kudlow or Trump will come out cheerleading later today.

Globalism Can Work With a Global Totalitarian Govt

Caixin: Opinion: Time for a Global Rethink on Taxation
If you are a citizen of a country, should you only pay taxes on the income you earn within that country’s geographical limits, or on all the money you earn, independent of location? The United States, Mexico, India, China, and Chile tax global income. Western Europe, Japan, Canada, Peru and Colombia tax territorial income. If the world moved toward global taxation and enhanced some incipient information-sharing mechanisms, the impact on inclusive growth, especially in the developing world, would be very positive.
Globalism creates a new set of problems, the solutions to which involve destroying nations, whether they care about liberty or not.

2019-12-05

Social Mood 2020: White Van Terror and Tyranny

CNN: A Facebook rumor about white vans is spreading fear across America
Terrifying rumors initially propelled by Facebook's algorithms have sparked fears that men driving white vans are kidnapping women all across the United States for sex trafficking and to sell their body parts. While there is no evidence to suggest this is happening, much less on a national, coordinated scale, a series of viral Facebook (FB) posts created a domino effect that led to the mayor of a major American city issuing a warning based on the unsubstantiated claims.

The latest online-induced panic shows how viral Facebook posts can stoke paranoia and make people believe that spotting something as common as a white van, can be deemed suspicious and connected to a nationwide cabal.
As a signal of social mood, the factual content of a rumor doesn't matter. If this is an organic rumor zooming around the Internet, it speaks to what I've been covering here for years: the negative and declining social mood amid a depression masked by central bank intervention.

However, that the media jumped on the algorithm angle opens up the possibility that this is a "false flag" part of a broader government/media regulation effort. Tyrants do not like objective algorithms on Facebook and YouTube because they recommend popular content, even if that content is politically incorrect, dissident, or even completely fake (such as flat Earth). Facebook and YouTube seek increased engagement of users. They want users spending more time on their platforms, to sell them more ads. Their algorithms achieve this by serving up videos based on what works.

Rumors were around long before the Internet because there are many ways of transmitting information through society. Many in American society, mainly those who sit in positions of power in media, education, government and technology, want to use this tech to censor and eliminate competing information channels. This will turn America into something similar to China under the CCP.

2019-12-04

6 Key Words for 2020

iFeng: 十多位大佬解读:关于2020年 你必须知道的六大关键词
Keyword # 1: Quality Enterprise

Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice-chairman of the China Association for the Promotion of International Multinational Corporations and director of the United Nations University for Peace, said bluntly: "The number and quality of a country's multinational companies is directly related to the country's position in the world."

He took stock of China's top 500 companies: "Most of them are central enterprises, the remaining real estate companies, and some emerging Internet IT companies. The development of IT enterprises is an administrative concession granted by the government."
This next one does not make me confident.
Keyword # 2: Confidence

When the economy fluctuates, it is not money that is lacking, but confidence. In economics, confidence is about expectations, and expectations are about behavior.

In the first day of the forum, Wei Jianguo, the vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center and the former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, took a shot.

"The overall economic situation next year will be better than this year, and there will be a development trend of" low front and high back ", and the additive effect of policies will be more significant."
Keyword # 3: Fintech

How to solve the problem of confidence? Find new economic growth points.

In recent years, big data and blockchain have become hot words, and the era of digital economy and fintech seems to have arrived. However, many industry experts saw in advance the hidden concerns behind the blossoming flowers.

How to prevent risks in the digital economy era? This is a question that must be answered.

Li Lihui, the leader of the Blockchain Working Group of the China Internet Finance Association and former President of the Bank of China, pointed out the importance of "digital trust" in his speech.

Finance needs credit, how to build trust in the digital economy era?
Here's an OK Booomer one:
Keyword # 4: Aging and the city

In recent years, "aging" has become a hot word, causing a lot of social anxiety.

In the age of aging, one child raises four elderly people, how to solve the problem of providing for the elderly? "Before getting rich", where does the money for old age come from? Will China enter an "aging" society like Japan?

Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is more optimistic. He raised a very different perspective on the challenges brought by the aging population to society.

Ni Pengfei believes that in the digital age, aging should not be called aging, it should be called longevity.
Keyword # 5: House prices

The house is related to the safety and well-being of every people, and it is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. When talking about the economy, the topic that cannot be avoided is the property market.

Sheng Songcheng, Counsellor of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government, Executive Deputy Dean of the China-Europe Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, and former Director of the Department of Investigation and Statistics of the People's Bank of China, attended the forum and delivered a keynote speech entitled "Structure Issues Regarding Real Estate Regulation in China"

Regarding the future trend of housing prices, Sheng Songcheng believes that housing prices may rise again in the next six months to a year.

"Why is house price likely to rise? Because supply has fallen and supply has fallen. Now people are more worried about house prices falling. Many people will say that house prices may fall. On the contrary, I am worried that house prices may be Rising again. "

"Because we control demand now. And demand can only be postponed. You can't control the future and not buy a house. Not buying now does not mean not buying later. And if supply continues to fall, house prices are likely to rise after one year."
Keyword # 6: Trade

A major change in 2019 is that trade is not only an issue for China and the United States, but has become an international trend. The rise and fall of trade frictions between countries constitutes a major geopolitical instability.

As a witness and witness of China's joining the "internationalization" wave, China's chief negotiator for accession to the WTO and former vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Long Yongtu talked about his thoughts and feelings.

He bluntly said: "Over the years, I have a very profound experience. As long as you import a lot, as long as you are able to carry out some import commitments more boldly in trade negotiations with some countries, trade negotiations will become easier."

"Expanding imports is the most important and effective way to resolve trade frictions. Of course, for us, increasing imports also has a major strategic goal, which is to make China the world's largest trading power. After years of efforts, we It has become the world's largest exporter of trade, which is not enough. "Long Yongtu pointed out in his speech. "

He mentioned that Americans have long dominated the hegemony on the international trade stage because it is the world's largest importer.