Will Russia Win?
First, the Ukrainians are not fighting a guerrilla war. Instead, as the list of weapons they have asked the West to provide them with shows, they have been trying to wage a conventional one: tank against tank, artillery barrel against artillery barrel, and aircraft against aircraft. All, apparently, in the hope of not only halting the Russian forces but of expelling them. Given that the Russians can fire ten rounds for every Ukrainian one, such a strategy can only be a sure recipe for defeat.
This is complicated by the fact that Russia is mostly occupying ethnic Russian territory. They aren't, yet, going for the whole thing, though they might get it if Ukraine keeps fighting a conventional war against them.
Fourth, strict censorship is making the impact of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s population hard to asses. If there is any grumbling, it is being energetically suppressed. Meanwhile, a look at the macroeconomics seems to show that Russia is coping much better than many Westerners expected. Gold reserves have been inching up, enabling Putin to link his currency to gold—the first country to do so since Switzerland went in the opposite direction back in 1999. The Ruble, which early in the war came close to collapse, is back to a seven-year high against the dollar, trend upward. Given the fall in imports as well as the tremendous rise in energy prices, more money is flowing into Russia’s coffers than ever before.
The opposite is true in Europe, they are being wrecked. The U.S. is on balance fine, but at the cost of crushing the middle and lower class. A bonus for the Baizuo while in power, so long as they maintain power.
Should it continue, as it almost certainly will, it will give rise to growing popular discontent with the war and demands that their countries’ involvement in it be reduced or brought to an end. Even if that end means abandoning Ukraine and allowing Putin to have his way with it.
Peace is unequivocally the sane policy.
Last not least, beginning with the Enlightenment the West has long preened itself on being a fortress where liberty, law and justice prevail. Now the repeated, highly publicized, requisitioning of the property of so-called oligarchs is beginning to make some people wonder. First, no one knows what an “oligarch” is. Second, the fact that some “oligarchs” have been in more or less close touch with Putin over the years does not automatically turn them into criminals. Third, supposing they are criminals, it is not at all clear why they were left alone for so long and only began to be targeted after the war broke out. Could it be that, in combating the oligarchs, the West is undermining the justice of its cause?
The Globalist American Empire is an Empire of Lies. USG is a liar and
rebelling against the Creator. At the intellectual level, it is approaching the level of the Soviets and Nazis when it comes to their false beliefs and propaganda. They not only deserve to lose, but anyone who loves Truth should be actively working to defeat the GAE regime in Washington, and for Americans, replace it with a regime focused on truth, justice and liberty. The GAE will lose. The Empire of Lies will collapse like the Soviet Union. The question for Americans as a people is will they go down with it? Thus far, the answer is yes.
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“Fourth, strict censorship is…”. LOL. At first, I thought he was writing about Oceania. Then I realized he’s projecting. Based on the excerpts, the author sounds like a tool, albeit one finding some bits of truth.
ReplyDeleteI was a little surprised on his take because he's generally been on point with what's wrong in the West. The author is Martin van Creveld.
DeleteThanks for the extra color, LZ.
Delete“ the West has long preened itself on being a fortress where liberty, law and justice prevail. Now the repeated, highly publicized, requisitioning of the property of so-called oligarchs…”. LOL. Zappa’s “brick wall at the back of the stage” became visible long before that, to anyone who spent some time looking.
ReplyDeleteLZ, if I might make a suggestion, now that you recognize Oceania as an Empire of Lies, consider that we are only now recognizing what’s always been true. This has profound implications, because most of what we’ve read about Oceania and Eurasia and Eastasia had been edited if not sourced completely by biased or fraudulent Oceania sources (often including fraudulent “eyewitnesses”). If “history books” are the map to the past, I submit that the map is not the territory. For me, it’s hard to believe any longer, with any confidence, that “false beliefs and propaganda” of foreign or discontinued empires was close to what’s been described or that real context wouldn’t rationalize what they thought/did at least as “no worse” than what a country born of the English Empire and nurtured on genocide, slavery, land theft, and lies has done and continues to do, while lying enough to its constituents to make them “celebrate” their independence and freedom rather than instead recognize today as a memorial for what the national concept always was: myth or, if you prefer, marketing collateral. We want “freedom” but are sold the sizzle. …. Julian visibly rots in jail as a warning to other media to self-censor but every item on the Bill of Rights is being destroyed. (I’d link to an enumeration of the ways if only the blog hosting the enumeration wasn’t long demonetized and its content harder to find.)
ReplyDeleteYou've fallen for the sleight of hand. The current invaders lie about everything and destroy everything they touch, they are the ones who always focus on the "genocide, slavery, land theft, and lies." If you believe their lies, then you will never have freedom. Their goal is demoralization of the popualtion. This type of rhetoric is unfiltered Soviet propaganda from the Cold War. Why do you think people who talk like Soviets have a similar view on Truth and liberty as the Soviets?
DeleteAssange is a product of the English Empire. He is imprisoned by the occupied government in DC. If they can convince you that the Americans are really the bad guys, then people like Assange are getting what they deserve.
“do you think people who talk like Soviets have a similar view on Truth and liberty as the Soviets?” Where did we get our info on the Soviets or Mao? Who funded it and wrote it and published it? People like empire man Robert Conquest? Much more importantly, it’s possible to accept their characterization and criticism of the British-American Empire without wanting to adopt their policies. In short, like reading gold bugs criticizing fiat but deciding to buy something other than gold, you have a choice to read and agree with much of their “marketing collateral” without buying their particular product. Stated another way, you can be “woke” and not “Woke”, just as you can prefer “democracy” and simultaneously abhor the Demopublican Party. As far as being demoralized, the most demoralizing part for me is watching people not accepting a cold hard look at their regime’s history (because they suspect the only people pitching it are invaders or their useful idiots — like you, as is your right, politely imply I’ve become). The Oceania-crafted illusions of the past continue to misguide us about the future. If it’s demoralizing to behold them, as with any “loss” I submit it’s a necessary step to move forward. …. It’s taken me decades of reading to *unlearn* what we were told. Some number of years ago, like you, I thought our problems were more “recent”. I think this stems from the fact we more keenly observe what happens in real time around us while mistakingly relying on history books stuffed with the fake news of yesteryear. …. Anyway, for sure, I’m happy to see you are as bothered by what you see currently. That’s certainly one of the battles, IMO.
ReplyDelete“ without wanting to adopt [the critics’] policies. ”
ReplyDelete