Can't Shake Fertility Trends: China Births Fall 4.8pc in 2017

Chinese births fell 880,000 or 4.8 percent in 2017.

Fertility is falling because of a host of forces including urbanization, education and feminism. Not only will it not reverse, it's likely to further collapse as China relies on fertility crushing trends to boost its GDP growth. Eliminating the one-child policy has very little impact on birth rates because very few people (and less each year) want 2 or more children.

According to the date, 51 percent of births were second children. This percentage has been rising in recent years with the end of the one-child policy. Since headline births are declining, it suggests fertility is becoming more concentrated. The number of people having 0 children offset those having 2. Assuming some genetic or local culture (family) resistance to anti-natalism forces, it will be a long time before births naturally reverse as the more fecund population grows as a share of the population. At least 20 and more like 40 years before these changes start moving the needle (ceteris paribus).

Caixin: 年度卫生健康公报发布 未披露生育率数据

In 2017, the number of live births in hospitals throughout the country was 17.58 million, and 2 children accounted for 51%.

Compared with 2016, the national birth population decreased by 880,000 in 2017. According to the statistics of the former National Health and Family Planning Commission, the number of live births delivered by hospitals nationwide in 2016 was 18.46 million, and the number of births between two and more children accounted for more than 45% of the total births last year. The fertility rate was 1.7.