Real Estate Rage Returns

WSJ: China’s Housing Market Is Finally Cooling. Some Homeowners Are Furious

青岛新闻网:济南楼市:房价降了 每平米1万元出头的房明显多了 (Jinan property market: the price dropped, 10,000 yuan per square meter seen)

Aside from falling prices, what's notable about Jinan is existing-home listings are at an all-time high and rising as prices drop:
According to the transaction data of the chain home, the number of listed houses in Jinan reached 43,313 sets. In recent months, the number of new homes in the chain has been on the rise. In May, the growth of listings reached a peak of 6,617.

Although the number of second-hand houses listed is high, the house prices are falling silently. According to the data of the chain home, the average price of second-hand houses in Jinan in September was 18,411 yuan, and the average price was 16386 yuan/square meter. In October 2018, the price of second-hand houses in Jinan was 20,915 yuan / square meter.

"Some second-hand houses are obviously cut in price, but in fact, the price that was previously hanged is also high, and there is no market for price." Chu Xin told the Economic Herald reporter that many of the second-hand houses that are now sold are constantly adjusting prices. Only when there is a deal, there is basically room for bargaining.

iFeng: “银十”以量换价 房企降价冲刺将成普遍趋势
From the sales model, most of the housing companies increased their supply in October. At the same time as the pace of the push-up increased, the trend of price reduction promotion was obvious. Industry insiders expect that under the pressure of annual performance targets, the final two-month price sprint of real estate enterprises will become a general trend.

...In this regard, Zhongda Real Estate Principal Analyst Zhang Dawei said that compared with the data for the same period in 2018, the sales of housing enterprises continued to differentiate in the first 10 months of 2019. In the same period of 2018, the sales amount of real estate enterprises increased by more than 50% year-on-year, while in 2019, the sales of most enterprises were relatively stable, and the growth rate of some enterprises slowed down noticeably.
The average selling price has been lowered

From the average selling price, the average selling price of some real estate enterprises in October was lower than that in September. Taking China Evergrande as an example, the company's October sales brief showed that in October 2019, the company's contracted sales average price was 9336 yuan / square meter, and the average contracted sales price in September was about 10054 yuan / square meter.

The industry generally believes that from the sales performance, many housing companies have harvested "Golden September and Silver 10", but most of the housing enterprises have increased the supply, and some companies have significantly adjusted the price promotion. In order to scale up, the possibility of looting will not be ruled out in the last two months of the housing business.

A medium-sized housing enterprise executive told the China Securities Journal that in the current environment where the profit margin of the industry is squeezed, the profitability of future housing enterprises will depend more on the company's own refined operations and product strength.

It is worth noting that since October, some third- and fourth-tier cities have seen an increase in the property market and the average price has increased. 58 City and Anjuke data show that in October 2019, the national key monitoring 67 city online new home average price of 16,491 yuan / square meter, up 0.47%, the second-hand housing listing price of 15,432 yuan / square meter, up 0.08%. The price of first-tier cities is at a high level, the fluctuations are small, the prices are stable, the second-tier cities are basically flat, and the heat of the third- and fourth-tier markets is slightly higher, and the chain trend has changed from a decline in September to a rise of 3.7%.

In response to the trend of the property market in the later period, many industry insiders pointed out that the follow-up market is expected to continue to be stable. From a national perspective, in October 2019, the overall sales data of real estate enterprises is not low, but it is expected that the sales pressure of real estate enterprises in the next two months will remain very large. From the policy expectation, policy tightening expectations are apparent, and policies such as credit will curb the market, and the follow-up market may continue to decline.

Land market volume fell

The Kerry research report pointed out that in October, new homes, second-hand houses and land markets continued their downward trend in September, and they all continued to turn cold. The volume of new houses in key cities was down year-on-year and the chain was down. The transactions in Hangzhou, Ningbo and Xuzhou were significantly reduced. The volume of second-hand housing transactions fluctuated within a narrow range, and the chain also fell slightly. The volume and volume of the land market fell, but the land auctions in key cities have improved significantly, and the number of shots has decreased significantly from last month.

Ke Errui pointed out that the transaction volume of the land market fell again in October. However, under the support of the increase in the supply of high-quality land in Beijing and Wuhan, the transaction heat did not continue to fall, and the average premium rate was roughly the same as last month. Although the urban land market of all energy levels shows the same volume and price, the market heat is completely different. Among them, the transaction premium rate of first- and second-tier cities has rebounded from the previous month, while the third- and fourth-tier cities have continued to fall due to the market's continued coldness. The premium rate has also declined for many consecutive months, and this month has fallen to a low level below 10%.
Sohu: 原创楼市开始“煮温水”,两大明确信号已出现,李嘉诚、潘石屹不谋而合?
From the perspective of regulatory attitudes, it is highly probable that housing and housing will not become a social consensus, and the regulation of the property market will continue to deepen. According to statistics, in 2018, the regulation was issued 450 times throughout the year. By 2019, only 415 times were released in the first nine months, with an average of 1.5 times a day. The intensity has once again set a new record, and the number of times over 2018 is obviously a high probability event. It is worth noting that this year, the central bank lowered the release of 900 billion yuan, the loan interest rate also entered the LPR era, and the environment for reducing financing costs gradually formed, but the mortgage interest rate did not fall, but the housing finance continued to tighten. This means that the use of financial leverage to spur the land price and housing prices has greatly reduced, the country will obviously not rely on real estate to stimulate the economy, the property market regulation will continue to deepen.

...In fact, in the face of the changes that have occurred in the property market and possible changes, many real estate giants have smelled the taste early and have already acted. Take Li Ka-shing, who is most familiar with everyone, from the large-scale layout to the choice to leave, as early as 2013, the process of selling real estate began. This year, the project of Dalian, which has been held for 8 years, was sold again for 4 billion yuan. . In this regard, in an interview, he said that he would not risk to make the last copper plate. There is no such thing. News about the real estate giant Pan Shiyi’s “selling a house” is also constantly appearing. According to several authoritative media reports, SOHO China is selling core assets. The total value of these 8 projects in Beijing and Shanghai is between 50 billion and 60 billion yuan. In this regard, the industry believes that following Li Ka-shing, SOHO China's core assets in China will be almost empty. Then, in the face of Li Ka-shing and Pan Shiyi’s “selling house” behavior, how should buyers choose?

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