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Original post on September 14, 2020:
Another merger situation that looks attractive: Eastmain is trading at a discount to its post-merger value in Fury Gold. Auryn also may be trading at a discount to its parts. These spinouts tend to break positively in bull markets, but a big question is how the market behaves in the next couple of months with respect to the Fury Gold. Another piece of the asset puzzle will be held privately for some time, as they would like to find financing before listing it. I bought Eastmain recently and that is the most conservsative piece of this "arbitrage" play. I put arbitrage in quotes because it's a share-for-share deal and you can never be sure where the market will move, but buying Eastmain gives you Fury shares at a discount to what you will pay through buying Auryn. I think the Auryn spinout is also compelling, but valuing it is difficult.
There's abotu 12 percent downside risk in Auryn. At that point, there would be risk of a breakdown, but I suspect a bounce is more likely than not at that point. I don't see much downside risk in Eastmain because the share discount exceeds the wiggle room I'm giving to Auryn. Additionally, the Fury Gold merger with Eastmain is hte more easily valued, desireable asset in the near-term. Auryn's CEO discusses the company's plan below.
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