Small Chinese Exporters Predict Trump Win

VoxPopoli: Chinese index predicts Trumpslide

Experts can analyze the trend of the international market through the changes in Yiwu order data, and make predictions on international events based on this. For example, the BLM movement broke out in the United States and people demonstrated for equal rights. At the same time, Yiwu also received a large number of orders for propaganda materials, which determined that this protest would not end in a short time. This was indeed the case. The United States is about to begin the general election campaign, in which candidates will inevitably need a large number of campaign items, and Yiwu, as the world's small commodity distribution center, can use the data displayed by orders as a basis for judging the situation. In the eyes of small businesses in Yiwu, the results of mainstream American polling agencies are false, as only "orders will not be faked", because more orders for aid materials mean that the campaign team’s funds are richer and there are more supporters. For example, in the past few months, Yiwu merchant Li Qingxiang has received more than 100,000 orders for Trump’s support flags, support hats, and even support masks and face towels. However, Biden’s support flags have only sold few thousand copies. From this perspective, Trump's true approval rate may be much higher than Biden. Although there is not much rigorous scientific basis for using the Yiwu Index to infer the results of the U.S. general election, Yiwu, as the world's largest distribution center for small commodities, tends to be reliable in election politics in Europe and the United States. In today's world, the Yiwu Index can indeed become a "barometer" of many political hot events.

How are marijuana, solar and gun stocks doing? On the whole, they are pointing to a Trump win (gun sales soar under threat of gun control). As I said in the prior post, it's difficult to disentangle broader events from individual sectors. Marijuana and gun stocks looks cleanest to me for signals. Both should spike on Biden win and sink on a Trump win, particularly if the GOP keeps the Senate or flips the House. Note that solar has based and could be ready for a breakout no matter who wins.

Given the run-up since March, the signals are even more distorted. Taken together with other signals such as the one above, it seems like the odds are shifting in Trump's favor.