Imminent Bear or Topping Process

Three charts today. I remain bearishly oriented, but right now my largest trading position is a huge one in XLE call options. I expect a further bounce. That said...I don't know if it will be a brief relief rally before more selling or a larger rally that sets the market up for a bigger decline into the more seasonally bearish September.

BTC is approaching my support line. The break below $30k is important, but through support is when selling accelerates. BTC is less correlated with financial markets. I'm agnostic on the short-term, but still expect a break of support.

Next up is the imminent correction chart. Best expressed by SPDR Materials (XLB). We get a bounce up that fills the gap on various charts, followed by a swift decline. If this plays out, this rally will burn out today or tomorrow. This would also be better for the bulls because it might mean we get a summer correction, albeit a deep one, instead of a bull market top.

Finally, the larger topping process can be best shown with SPDR Energy (XLE). It could form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern. This is highly speculative, but a "top" for the shoulder could come sometime after mid-August, with a break of the neckline coming sometime in late September out to mid-October, give or take a few weeks. This would likely coincide with the "end" of the bull market. End it quotes because who knows if we'd get another March 2020 style panic and stimulative rebound, or if it would be more like a 2000 repeat. For the latter, tech peaked in March 2000 and the rest of the market hung on until in September. Parts of tech such as ARKK and Tesla peaked back in February. Another intereseting corrolary, but not as important, is the strength in natural gas.