The immediate future is cloudy because there has been no capitulation in the bear market. There has been no VIX spike. There doesn't need to be, but it is a glaring missing piece for a clear bottom. I expect a low could be around the 3700-3800 area if that capitulation comes before the longer rally. If the plug gets pulled, then it's straight down to 3400 area and then a rally.
FWIW, Xtrends thinks VIX will spike this coming week:One day moves aren't much to go on, but crude oil broke higher. Bonds might only be pulling back within the context of a reversal. High-yield bonds did not make a new 52-week low on Friday, but came close.
BTC is right at my support line at $28,817 today. A Tehter blowup isn't necessary here, I think that could come later this year. A short-term, capitulation spike lower in stocks would be preceded or coincident with a breakdown in BTC to around $20,000 because it is believed MicroStrategy has a signficant position that will get a margin call at $21,000.
Bank run continues
— IDKFA (@IDKFA3) May 14, 2022
Tether will be forced to sell its non cash balance sheet which is:
-u.s. treasuries (lost 30% of value from peak last year)
-mortgage backed securities (losing value rapidly)
-commercial paper (lots of chinese assets)
-other crypto (down 60-80%)
Feedbackloop pic.twitter.com/Avp4ofazIq
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