河南大学“文物级”礼堂遭焚毁 中国国务院安委会挂牌督办火灾事故
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5月2日深夜,正处于修缮施工期间的河南大学明伦校区大礼堂起火,火势凶猛。3日上午,礼堂房顶已经基本坍塌。该礼堂 […]...
2022-09-15
Deja Vu: Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Plummets Right on Schedule
Atlanta Fed growth forecast has plummeted from 2.7 percent to 0.5 percent in a couple of weeks. I went back to see the prior two quarters and its the same pattern. Both forecasts dumped right about now. There's an explanation for this. The model makes an estimate for the quarter based on very little data, so it's mostly an estimate. As data comes in, the estimate gives way to real data. In a nutshell, the estimates plunge right about now because the tipping point between estimated data and real data is crossed, as well as the Fed modelers aren't pessimistic enough with their initial settings. I don't fault them for that though, since it doesn't matter. Their model is dynamic and more accurate than the trash mainstream economists.
Labels:
economy,
Federal Reserve,
USA
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