In the note, UBS writes that "Our global credit impulse (covering 77% of global GDP) has suddenly collapsed" and explains that "as the chart below shows the 'global' credit impulse over the last 18 months is essentially mainly China (the green shaded bit), which even now is still creating new credit at an annualized rate of around 30pp of (Chinese) GDP. But the credit impulse is the 'change in the change' in credit and even the Chinese banks could not sustain the recent extraordinary pace of credit acceleration. As a result: whereas back in Jan '16 the global credit impulse was positive to the tune of 3.8% of global GDP (of which China comprised 3.5% of global GDP) it has now fallen back to -0.1% of global GDP (China's contribution is -0.3% of global GDP).
Is stagflation temporary?
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I have been gazumped by two red-hot inflation reports in two days, even as
growth slows sharply in Australia and the US. First, in Australia,
quarterly d...
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