2022-11-02

MAGA Surging Towards 4th Turning?

The MAGA Republicans are massively closing gaps all over the country. In New Hampshire, Bolduc is now in a dead heat with Hassan. She was plus 5 a week ago and it looked like maybe a close race, but a Dem hold. Now it looks like a GOP pick-up. In New Hampshire, only absentee voters can request mail-in ballots. In other states, I'm not sure if the GOP surge will end up less because many people may have voted a month earlier. Bolduc like many MAGA candidates (general term for the nationalist GOPers, not necessarily Trump guys) has received zero help from the national party. This is as much as victory over the GOP establishment as it would be a victory over the Democrats.

How bad are things for the Democrats? I saw one independent pollster saySenator Schumer could lose in NY because all the races there are converging and the GOP is surging. Let me state for the record that I believe that is nearly impossible because he is more than +10 in the polls, but that if it did, this would be a bigger shock than the trucker knocking out the leader of the New Jersey Senate. It would greatly up the odds that the GOP will produce this 4th Turning's FDR. I expect a major power sweep in the coming decade, most likely around 2028 or 2032. The GOP already dominates in the states and the House is always in flux. One third of the Senate is up every 2 years and this is the worst cycle for Republicans. If Schumer were to lose, the GOP would probably be knocking on 60 seats in the Senate with two favorable cycles yet to come. By 2026, the GOP could conceivably have the votes to amend the Constitution between the House, Senate, state houses and then then whomever wins in 2028.

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