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On cue, the economy is already coming back to life after hitting a brick wall over the winter. Credit growth jumped to a 31-month high in July. The monetary base has grown at a 20pc rate over the last three months, implying an economic spike later this year.
...Given the sanctions and given that China has a trade surplus of $600bn or 6pc of GDP - and is therefore accumulating foreign exchange at blistering pace, ceteris paribus - there is no chance whatsoever that reserve losses will spin out of control.
So reserves flatline as money supply growth accelerates. At some point, fundamentals come into play. If it doesn't lead to devaluation today, it will lead to devaluation or rapid inflation later.
At the risk of sticking my neck out, I think that Gothic warnings of a Chinese collapse this year will look silly by Christmas. The reckoning has been delayed again.
The "devaluation" saga this month is a red herring. The PBOC has switched from a dollar peg to a 'managed float' to protect itself from any further surge in the US dollar as the Fed tightens policy.
...None of this is to say that China's economy is healthy. Credit still rising by seven percentage points of GDP each year, pushing the debt ratio ever further into the danger zone. It will be 270pc by next year. This will end badly.
But China is not in immediate crisis. The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for banks is still 18.5pc. The PBOC can slash this to 6pc - as did in the late 1990s - flooding the system with $3 trillion of liquidity. It can even go to zero in extremis.
The time to worry is when China has exhausted this last buffer. This August scare of 2015 is a false alarm.
Is stagflation temporary?
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I have been gazumped by two red-hot inflation reports in two days, even as
growth slows sharply in Australia and the US. First, in Australia,
quarterly d...
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
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[image: Mortgage Rates] Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com
and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, *Personal Income and O...
Scenario Analysis For Friday’s Trading Session
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The S&P is currently in a range between 4950 and 5250. After blowout
earnings from Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and excellent earnings from Microsoft
(MSFT) Thursda...
Her Name Was Trio
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FEEDLast night I was feeling very left behind, since the QQQs were
plunging, and I was sitting around with IWM puts, and the small caps were
just sitting t...
I promised a fresh start and something new
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Beginning of this year I posted that I had done my last performance review
and promised a fresh start – something new. Well it took a while to move my
idea...
Weekly Market Pulse: Situation Normal
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Is this normal? I haven't made any money in like two years. Question from a
recent acquaintance upon hearing what I do for a living Let's get this out
of t...
BIG PICTURE AGRICULTURE'S LATEST NEWS
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1. CLICK HERE to view my other site: Agriculture News Daily. 2. CLICK HERE
to view latest tweets from my favorite Ag-related news sources. 3. See news
lin...
A Slow Motion Slide
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We’ve had quite a weird week – Nasdaq kept selling off to the indifference
of the rest of the world. Nasdaq’s correction reached -11% off the ATH,
while ...
The Oil Refinery Crisis Will Worsen This Winter
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The Oil Refinery Crisis Will Worsen This Winter Tyler Durden Thu,
12/10/2020 - 20:20
*Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,*
It was only to be ex...
FINTS EVENING HIGHLIGHTS (15 Jun 2016)
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China’s total debts amounted to 168.5 trillion yuan ($25.6 trillion) at the
end of 2015, equivalent to 249 percent of gross domestic product, Li Yang
an in...
Responses to readers’ questions, and new forecasts
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[image: Vietnam account set-up]1. The question is: “I got a good run up in
ISJP and was stopped out yesterday-in at 14.23 in august 2012 and out
yesterday ...
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