Fruit Freedom! Premier Li Discusses Fruit Prices, Analysts Forecast Relief After July

Fruit freedom has become a hot topic in China. What is it? A Sohu article explains: 全国果价大涨,还说什么“水果自由”,连苹果都快吃不起了
For everyone, the so-called financial freedom, the popular saying that spending money can do whatever you want without thinking, and the freedom of fruit is also a similar meaning, that is, when buying fruit to eat, there is no need to worry about the cost of living expenses.

However, the world is difficult. For ordinary people, financial freedom is already difficult to achieve. Now it is impossible to buy fruit.

...Later, some media reported that Litchi sold nearly 60 yuan a pound of price, the unit price has exceeded the "king of fruit" durian, and forced the "fruit nobility" cherry. Therefore, following the "freedom of the cherries", "Lychee Freedom" also welcomed the hot search.

Nowadays, the rising price of fruit, basically the cheapest apple in the fruit, has risen to a new high of nearly a decade. For a time, letting "freedom of the cherries", "freedom of lychee" and "freedom of apples" became the three-stage standard for realizing "freedom of fruit." This triggered the netizens to collectively vomit: not to mention "freedom of the cherries" and "freedom of lychee", and now even "Apple Freedom" can not guarantee.
All is not lost however, some fruit prices are falling:
Is it really impossible for us to achieve fruit freedom? Don't worry. According to the difference in growth cycle and time to market, the Chinese fruit industry has relatively regular seasonal fluctuations in individual categories. The price increase this time is because the fruit farmers have suffered from the extreme weather effects of the winter and spring seasons, but with the summer and autumn fruit seasons listed, the fruit price can be expected to fall back and forth.

The National Bureau of Statistics also expressed a dose of "reassuring pills": fruit prices will not continue to be high. And now can not afford a certain fruit, does not mean that all fruits are rising. Although apples and cherries are on the rise, the prices of watermelon, peach, coconut and mangosteen are actually falling!

But what about friends who like to eat apples? You can also try to drink the world nickname apple cider vinegar, eat a bottle, digestion and help digestion, known as the fifth dish of health, the most important thing is the economic benefits, to help you achieve "healthy freedom" as soon as possible.
iFeng has a whole special section dedicated to rising fruit prices.
CNStock: 总理关注水果涨价,为啥?来看看官方提供的一份涨价名单
Sogou: Prime Minister Concerned about Fruit Price Rise, Why? Let's look at an official list of price increases.
This is the key monitoring data of the domestic fresh agricultural products wholesale market released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The major fruits monitored are Fuji apples, Kyoho grapes, Yali pears, pineapples, bananas, watermelons, tangerines and other common fruits in the market.

It is obvious from the chart that the price of fruit has increased significantly since April. In less than two months, the average price of seven kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs increased by more than 30%.
WallStreetCN: 总理考察“水果涨价” 今秋有望迎来“便宜水果” has a graphic showing the NBS price indexes. Prices are up year-on-year, not clear from the graphic because its cut off at six month, but you can see some cities have higher prices than in winter in some areas:
Anhui is hardest hit with fruit prices up 30 percent yoy and pork up 24.7 percent.

iFeng: 安徽水果涨价超30%,猪肉涨价24.7% 均居全国首位
Sogou: Anhui Fruit Price Exceeds 30%, Pork Price Exceeds 24.7%
The CPI data of 31 provinces in the country for April 2019 have been released one after another. Hot topics such as "garlic is tough", "cherries are free" and "toon is free" have recently returned to the public's view. Under the siege of strong vegetable and fruit prices, what is the CPI performance of the provinces?

CPI in 16 Provinces Exceeds National Growth

In April 2019, the national consumer price rose 2.5% year-on-year, continuing to be in "era 2". In food, the price of fresh vegetables is still at a high level, up 17.4% year-on-year, affecting CPI growth by about 0.43%. Pork prices rose 14.4%, an increase of 9.3% over the previous month, affecting CPI growth of about 0.31%. Last autumn the northern fruits failed to harvest, but this year the stock was insufficient. The price of fresh fruits rose by 11.9%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.22%.

Looking from the 31 provinces in the country, according to incomplete statistics, the CPI in April 16 exceeded that in the whole country, with Tianjin, Hebei and Anhui having the highest increase, reaching 2.9%. Hunan's CPI was the same as that of the whole country, up 2.5% year on year. Beijing and Xinjiang saw a small increase of 1.6%.

Classifications don't look, fresh fruits rose more than the same period of the whole country in 13 provinces, Anhui rose 30.9%, the highest increase; Only fresh fruits in Ningxia rose by more than 20%, to 20.4%. There are 18 provinces with an increase of more than 10%, with a large number. Qinghai rose 1.9%, a small increase.

In addition, fresh vegetables rose more than the national level in 10 provinces. Chongqing's increase in fresh vegetables was the same as that of the whole country, at 17.4%. Three provinces saw an increase of less than 10%.

As for pork, Anhui has seen the largest increase of 24.7% from the provinces that have already announced the increase. Sichuan followed, up 23.4%. The lowest was Guizhou, up 7.6%.

Is it really so difficult to realize "fruit freedom"?

Following the "Toon Freedom", "Garlic You Are Hard" and "Cherry Freedom", the "Fruit Freedom" has also recently been flashed on the Internet, triggering heated discussions. As a matter of fact, after the Spring Festival, the news about the price rise of fruits has been heard all the time. More reports said that fruit prices in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market rose 78% over the same period last year.

According to the data from the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of Fuji apple has been rising for 9 weeks in a row. As of mid-May, the price of Fuji apple was 10.33 yuan/kg, up 60.7% year on year. In addition, watermelon prices have also been on the rise year on year. As of mid-May, watermelon prices were 4.86 yuan/kg, up 29.7% year on year.

It is worth noting that the retail price of fruit has also "gone up one piece". Data from the Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce show that from May 15 to 21, seasonal fruit sales decreased, the purchase price from the place of origin increased, and the average retail price of fruit increased. The retail prices of 6 kinds of fruits monitored mainly rose 3 times and fell 3 times, with the overall average retail price rising 0.28% month on month. Among them, the prices of grapes, apples and pears rose by 1.01%, 0.52% and 0.2% respectively.

According to data from the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce, from May 6 to 12, the purchase and sale of the market fell back in the week after the May 1 holiday, with prices rising slightly overall, with fruit and eggs rising at the top. Fruit wholesale market prices rose 1.7%, supermarket prices rose 3.7%. At present, the market is rich in fruit varieties. Cherries, loquats, cantaloupes, watermelons and the like in other production areas have seen their average prices rise due to the stacking of transportation costs in other areas, the small amount of early-market fresh-tasting and high prices.

Is "fruit freedom" really difficult to realize? In response to this, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on May 15 that judging from the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits, these two varieties are obviously affected by seasonal factors of extreme weather. These seasonal short-term impacts are not sustainable, and the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits will not continue to rise at a high level.

Haitong futures also analyzed that the recent rise in fruit prices was due to various degrees of disastrous weather during the growing period in the fruit producing areas in the north and south from 2018 to 2019. Therefore, in the current gap period in the fruit market, melon fruits with large output in summer have not been listed yet. Last year's fruit inventory in the north basically bottomed out, and tropical fruits in the south are expected to reduce production. Under the effect of multiple factors, the fruit market price has been rising steadily.

However, some organizations think it is unnecessary to worry about the difficulty of realizing the "cherries' freedom" and the loss of the common "fruits' freedom". The price of fruits is determined by the market supply and demand, and the price rise is a short-term phenomenon. With the adjustment of the market, the price rise tide of fruits will come to an end.

Haitong futures said that in the short term, after June, fruits in summer began to be listed in large quantities. Although litchi, longan and mango in southern tropical fruit producing areas are expected to reduce production, the output of mainstream fruits such as watermelon, Hami melon and peach is expected to maintain the normal level in previous years. Banana and citrus are expected to increase slightly. Therefore, the overall supply of fruits in summer is sufficient and "fruit freedom" is still possible.

Citic Jiantou also said that from a historical perspective, fruits will gradually fall back after experiencing a short-term price rise in the second quarter and maintain a relatively stable range. This is mainly due to the pressure on production caused by the interference of weather factors. After the price increase in the second quarter is released, the price will be further stabilized after the new fruits are listed. Therefore, fruit prices do not have the conditions for a sharp rise, but there will be a wave of rising prices in the short term.

Regarding the CPI trend in the second quarter, Liu Aihua pointed out that no matter in terms of food, industrial consumer goods and services, there will be no sharp rise in CPI in the future and stable prices have a solid foundation. Everbright Securities believes that CPI is expected to reach a peak of 2.6% to 2.7% in the second quarter and the whole year this year respectively, with the annual central or 2.3%, the highest level in nearly five years.

An iFeng survey 你家那里水果涨价了吗? shows the majority of people believe wholesalers are hoarding fruit to drive up prices. Inflation often leads to charges of hoarders causing price increases. This doesn't confirm any widespread inflation is starting in China, but it is worth noting. Only 16 percent believe the government story of extreme weather. Another 12 percent believe it is caused by the planting of higher quality produce.
Analysts are looking for prices to decline after July.

iFeng: 水果还会继续涨价吗?专家:7月份后整体价格将趋于下降
Sogou: Will fruit prices continue to rise? Expert: The overall price will tend to decline after July.
On May 24, the average wholesale price of Yali pear in Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural and sideline products wholesale market was 12.1 yuan/kg, up 95.16% from 6.2 yuan/kg on March 11.

The price is like sitting on a rocket and not letting people eat!

What is the reason for the sharp rise in fruit prices across the country? Is China's fruit supply guaranteed? What did the experts say?

Wu Jie, Associate Researcher of the Agricultural Industry Security Team of the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: The rise in fruit prices is due to short-term tight supply.
Will fruit prices remain high after this summer?

Don't worry! After July, with the increase of seasonal fruits in summer, the total market supply will obviously increase. Except for a small number of fruits, the overall price of fruits in the country will tend to decline.

So, is our country's fruit supply guaranteed?

Wu Jie said: China is the world's largest producer and consumer of fruits. In recent years, domestic demand for fruit consumption has continued to expand and production capacity is also expanding. The total domestic consumption in 2018 is about 253 million tons and the total national fruit output is about 261 million tons. It is estimated that by 2020, the national fruit output will reach 276 million tons and the total domestic fruit consumption will reach 262 million tons. In 2025, the national fruit output will reach 305 million tons and the total domestic fruit consumption will reach 295 million tons. In 2035, the national fruit output will reach 332 million tons and the total domestic fruit consumption will reach 321 million tons.

Overall, China's fruit production needs are basically balanced, with a slight surplus and a guaranteed supply.

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