2022-08-14

Selling Hasn't Really Started Yet

This chart shows there was some retail selling in May (and probably June too knowing how the market performed), but this is in the context of post-2020 inflows into tech exceeding all of the prior years. I hear from bears who are hedging their long positions. Everyone thinks the market will rebound and that stock marking investing is still a good idea over the long-term. I'm not convinced it won't be, but I'm betting there's a good chance stocks will be an absolutely horrible place to have money over the next few years.
Are pension funds dumping stocks yet because they face the prospect of cutting pension payments/promises if they keep taking losses? Have institutions begun unloading? You will know the real selling kicks in when the bottom drops out and stocks like Apple go bidless like the trashiest, most illiquid piece of crap in ARKK's portfolio.

The casino has been bearish, but the stock market has been overall bullish. Nobody is telling clients to close their accounts, to move all their money into treasuries, gold or some alternative. Buying slowed, some cash was raised, there is great bearishness among traders, but there hasn't been a panic among the long-term holders who have the volume to drive indexes well below most expectations. 

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