The Stock Market is Body Positive

We've known for about six weeks that inflation was coming down because crude oil peaked and declined. Yet only this week will the average market participant, including many professionals, be confident in this reality. Go back to the setup for the market in the first half: commodities (most importantly energy) up, inflation up, rates up, stocks collapse. The setup for any sustained reversal was: commodities down, inflation down, rates down, stocks rally. Even though the technicals point to a rally running on its last fumes as I discussed this weekend, the fundamental setup is still positive for stocks. The CPI report this week should be much lower than expected, helping to fuel dovish expectations for interest rates. The CPI might come in a little hotter than expected because disinflationary housing data may not have kicked in yet. That's the key for shifting the core CPI onto a disinflationary path. The real turn in the markets won't hit until that signal triggers.

The Russell 2000 Index has already broken out. the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index are poised to follow.

A break lower in crude oil will help fuel dovish thinking. I don't argue the details with experts in the natural resource sector, but they sound like they did in 2008 with comments in the spirit of "crude will never trade below $XX in my lifetime." It crystallizes the general thinking about inflation.

Will ZB follow my drawing?

Watching the yen this weak because "the Fed pivot" triggered the prior surge in the yen. This is the type of market where I expect a shocker squeeze could unfold.

Finally, the fact that the market is ralling on information available six weeks ago, combined with the technical signals discussed this weekend, tells me a reversal is as likely as follow through. A drop followed by a final high is one scenario that could drag out for a few days or weeks. If instead stocks go up first, it could be a "relentless" rally that gives bears a perfect short set-up for late summer and early autumn.

Final one for the bulls: Ethereum.