Revised GDP and Total Loan growth—Updated 1/4/10

Originally posted 11/25/2009

Last month, I posted a chart comparing the growth of Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks to GDP growth. With revised 3Q GDP out, I decided to update it. I noticed that the Fed reports the data slightly differently than the BEA, so I also adjusted the periods to match up. Growth rates are for quarter-over-quarter and therefore do not match reported figures.
Originally posted 11/25/2009
Update on 1/4/10: I was late in updating this, but GDP growth was reduced to 2.2% annualized in the third quarter. I didn't update the above chart, but GDP growth dropped from about 0.8% to 0.6% due to the revision. Cash for clunkers was two-thirds of the growth, minus that, GDP would have been very close to about 0.2% growth quarter over quarter, and less than 1% annualized. Importantly, cash for clunkers was only revised slightly from the first number, as it was originally less than 50% of total GDP growth in the quarter.

Go back and see the original post and follow through to Vox's original, as these revisions and make-up of the GDP report (government fueled consumption) suggest this may still be a valid predictive model.

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