2010-08-03

Andy Xie on Empty Apartments in China

Fear Empty Flats in China's Property Bubble
One useful figure for analysts is China's living space per capita. Surveys in most cities suggest the average living space is between 28 and 30 square meters per person. We don't know which population segment these surveys cover; they certainly don't include migrant workers. And we don't know if empty flats are counted.

Based on this limited data, however, we can confidently conclude that China does not have a housing shortage. Moreover, its per-capita living space is higher than in Europe and Japan. Indeed, if we adopt Japan's standard, China already has sufficient urban housing space for every man, woman and child in the country.

Far more important than general data, however, are the housing figures pointing to a huge quantity of empty flats apparently being held only for speculation. In a normal market, the vacancy rate should be equal to the number of households relocating, times the average transition period, plus newly formed households times the average purchase period. For example, a vacancy rate of 1.5 percent could accommodate a market in which 6 percent of households relocate every year, and the transit time is three months. If new household formation is 3 percent and the average period for a property purchase is six months, this factor requires a vacancy rate of another 1.5 percent. The total normal vacancy rate should be 3 percent. This figure includes the new properties ready for sale.

Although the government doesn't publish vacancy data, I think the vacancy rate for the nation's private, commercial housing stock is between 25 and 30 percent. That's at least double what's required in a normal market. The gap between what's needed and what's available can be viewed as speculative inventory. The value of this inventory held by speculators is probably around 15 percent of GDP. It's being kept on ice just as copper and other commodities are hoarded in anticipation of rising prices.
中国天量空房是数量泡沫危机来临的讯号
获得城市住房总量的可靠数字实在很难。人均住房面积数据还比较有用。在大部分城市开展的调查显示,平均住房面积为每人28平方米-30平方米。我们不知道这项调查覆盖了多少人口,但是,这些数据肯定不包括农民工。我们不知道这项调查是否将空置房计算在内。我粗略估计了一下,中国城市住房总量约为170亿平方米,误差区间为上下各10%。

  尽管数据不精确,但我们仍可断定,中国不存在绝对住房短缺的情况。如果采用日本的标准,中国城市住房足以安置所有的中国人,所有农村人口迁到城市都足够。

  掌握投机型(而非其他目的)空房的数量,比掌握住房总体数据重要得多。虽然政府未能公布空房数据,但我认为商品房空房率为25%-30%,比正常市场情况下至少高出100%。这种差异可被视为投机库存,如同有人囤积黄铜,待价而沽。这种投机库存的价值可能占GDP的15%左右。

  更可怕的是,2010年-2011年将可能形成大量投机库存。近期信贷收紧,挤压第二套及第三套房购房者,导致全国交易量崩盘。我从房产中介发现,大多数房产需求被纳入调控范围,即投机购房。可以假设,2010年-2011年,房产供给将接近GDP总量的15%。房产政策调控抑制市场过热,开发商势必囤积供给,作为库存。一旦再次放宽调控,投机行为将卷土重来,可能导致投机库存价值翻番。

No comments:

Post a Comment