Revolution underway

I began reading about socionomics about two years ago and would be reluctant to even call myself an amateur. However, I've been placing events in the context of social mood if only to see if this theory holds water. Thus far, I've found it's helped explain the course of events, and perhaps no more so than in politics.

Speaking of this year's elections, I recently wrote:
If I were betting, I'd place money on the most extreme outcomes, for example I predict that Sharron Angle will unseat Harry Reid.
In Delaware, Christine O'Donnell's victory over Mike Castle qualifies as an extreme event. The Republican establishment ran against her and says it will not provide any funding or support in the general election:
The National Republican Senatorial Committee offered its congratulations to O'Donnell immediately after the result was determined.

"We congratulate Christine O'Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign in Delaware," said a statement by Rob Jesmer, the NRSC executive director.

However, a top Republican official told CNN on Tuesday night that O'Donnell will have to show she can generate viable support before the national party will give her money.

"It is now incumbent on Sarah Palin, (U.S. Sen.) Jim DeMint and the Tea Party Express to help support her," the official said on condition of not being identified by name. "They got her here. Now make it happen."
The above statement is probably the most important of the entire night; it is the only one you need to read. There is a total revolution underway within the Republican party and it is winner takes all. The trend in social mood says that the above speaker will either be a Democrat or unemployed within a few years. The comment is an abdication of leadership and reflects the anti-establishment mood within the country, which has been covered in several articles, most extensively in America's Ruling Class -- And the Perils of Revolution.

Democrats are better off in terms of employment (they will maintain control of their party), but not power.

In A brief political outlook for 2010 and beyond, I wrote:
What I am sure of is that politics will move away from the center, but I think we're in the zone of chance. Democrats took over in 1932 because Republicans were in charge. I don't know when the break will come for the public, but when it does, whoever is in power will not be in power for a long-time thereafter. In this regard, the culling of incumbents is crucial because it will allow either party to claim to be fresh blood. The party out of power, or if power is split, the party with the fewest incumbents up for re-election will be the winner.
Republicans are culling incumbents en masse.

In Socionomics Alert—Breakups in Europe to begin?
I tend to believe that two things need to happen for an "extreme" political/financial event to occur. One, the social mood must be right, but two, the trend or movement must be in place. For instance, whether right or left-wing, whichever extreme has the political momentum and the candidates and issues ready, can win victory.
Depending on how low and for how long the social mood declines, almost anything can happen. Looking at the next 10 years, however, the Democrat party is still fully establishment, while the Republicans may be completely anti-establishment by 2012. That means they are in the catbird seat given the trend in social mood.

As for further predictions, if O'Donnell does become Senator O'Donnell, it will probably come on a night that will be called the greatest GOP victory since Reconstruction, but I don't see the social mood as being negative enough—yet. I don't expect her to win, but the more important question is what happens to the Delaware GOP. Will O'Donnell and the conservative forces remake the party, or will she be a footnote?

The story is about control for the party, not control of Congress. While some current Democrat leads are likely to evaporate by November, there isn't yet the tidal wave of voter support for a huge change. Given the effect of just one faction of the U.S. electorate becoming mobilized, this should have establishment politicians very worried.

Finally, O'Donnell wasn't the only victory last night. Carl Paladino won the GOP nomination for governor in New York and although just a poll, Marco Rubio has a huge lead in Florida.

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