Economic Hope in One Chart

Summary of North American Rail Freight Traffic

The hope is that the spike in 2013 signals an upturn in the U.S. economy. As this chart of rail traffic shows, hope is not dead, but it is falling fast. The index has been bottoming around mid-to-late February; if it bottoms soon it will do so at a higher high from last year, which would be a positive sign for the hopium smokers. On the negative side, the pace of the decline is slowing and at worst the economy seems headed back to the slow growth seen for most of the past 5 years. Whether the stock market is happy with that growth rate is another question.