2018-11-20

Coinpocalypse Begins, Bear Market for Stocks

In September: Crypto Selling Resumes, Monster Topping Pattern on Ethereum, Watch Out FANGs
Finally, cryptocurrencies were the bleeding edge of speculative activity. The breaking of topping patterns in majors such as Bitcion and Ethereum will be a signal that stocks, particularly the FANGs, are on thin ice. Here's Alibaba (BABA), for example, sporting a topping pattern similar to Ethereum. Not as massive a topping pattern or with as low a target, but it will cause far more losses. Ethereum has a $20 billion market cap that could go back to $1 or $2 billion, an $18 or $19 billion loss. Alibaba's market cap is $417 billion. A measured move off its topping pattern would cause $117 billion in losses.

In August: The Coinpocalypse
Finally, this is a classic collapse of a speculative bubble. It might benefit stocks in the near-term, but it strikes me as bearish, and not only because the stock market was tracking with cryptocurrencies earlier this year. Consider a stock such as Nvidia (NVDA) that sold the GPUs used by cryptocurrency miners...
NVDA lost 20 percent on Thursday last week and 12 percent on Monday, and down another 6 percent this morning in pre-market trading. It is down 53 percent off its high in about 6 weeks.

There is very little support for alt-coins and even some that appear to have support levels, such as Monero (XMR) will probably be pulled lower by the undertow. The targets for Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC) are in the single digits, if not below $1.

As for stocks such as NVDA, well the pain may have only begun. Support for NVDA is below $50. Initial support is 77 percent below the current price. If this is a bear market and not a deep correction, there is a lot of selling to come.

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