Watch Materials for Commodity Signal

Commodities are at a relative low versus the S&P 500 Index, but the relative pattern also looks like a giant top. Materials spiked up in late 2007 and 2008 before collapsing at the end of a prior economic expansion. Everyone is focused on money printing today, but will there be an abolition of recessions a la Australia, with a new growth cycle beginning, or is the economic expansion ending no matter what? Gold will win in either scenario because money creation and government deficits will follow, but commodities demand could decline in a stagflationary economy.