Chinese credit growth is slowing as it did in 2018. Unless authorities are misleading the public, there will be no lending burst coming this year. February should mark peak credit growth year-on-year since the pandemic will start falling out of comparisons next month. Total social financing stock increased only 0.82 trillion in February 2020 versus 1.62 trillion this past month. If March 2021 is an ordinary March for TSF growth, the year-on-year growth rate will drop a full percentage point next month.
Even USDCNY is turning at the same time of the year as in 2018.
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