The Fed is Behind the Curve, But USD Hasn't Cracked

Europe, Japan and China are not food and energy secure. USD is basing and the Federal Reserve is behind global central banks in tightening. Emerging markets are already hiking. The dollar should weaken in this environment. The U.S. dollar cycle says this should be a bear market. If it doesn't, something is up.

Here are the main crosses, with USD/EUR for consistency:

Here is the long-term DXY chart. The 6-year moving average is at 95. Neither of the prior two bear markets saw a rebound like we've seen this year, and they never saw a test of the moving average, let alone a violation of this resitance. A move through 95 would unleash

Bonus chart: Taco remains strong with natgas prices soaring.