Energy Starts Lower

I'm a terrible short-term trader, but I think there are pretty good odds that XLE takes a big step lower tomorrow.

Open image in a new tab to see the largest version. It's a little hard to see, but when there is an MACD crossover (in lower chart the black line crosses the red, also shown by the blue bars going negative) from such a high level, it has come with gap downs or big red bars more often than not. I've upped my short position with weekly options that could pay big on a such a move.