2021-12-03

Stagflation

The market is still cruising for a crash, misinterpreting a jobs miss as being favorable for Fed policy with respect to the stock market. Inflation is hurting employment though. The Fed has to tighten to save the labor market. Short-term it may hurt employment (might not because if supply chains ease it might balance out), but if a stagflationary recession begins, they will be in a worse position than Volcker. He could act when financial markets were beaten down, near generational lows and when markets didn't matter as much for the economy. Imagine something like the 2008 or March 2020 crash happening and the Fed's response is an emergency 100 basis point rate hike.

Gold miners continue to look attractive. My only caveat is that if the correction isn't finished, gold may be pulled lower along with everything else. I will be looking to add a long position with tight stops.

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