2022-01-06

All Eyes on New Jobs

Nomrally, jobs numbers aren't that important, but the Fed is using it as their excuse to do QE with markets at all-time highs, unemployment at boom time levels and inflation running hot.

for the jobs number tomorrow: is the model still going to interpret reopening jobs as seasonal hires? Also, were the private sector analysts correct about November jobs being 500k instead of the reported 200k for the same reason? There were huge revisions in the September report (for July and August) because of the seasonal glitch. I seldom look at the ADP number, but it was 500k above forecast. If, and that's a huge if, but if the jobs number for December is as strong as ADPs and the revision comes in as expected, December jobs plus November revision may clear 1 million. Expectation: rates up, stocks down.

If jobs miss or meet and there's no positive revision, stocks probably drift higher off technical support levels. A drop off a report such as this would be a tell that the market "wants" to go lower.

A jobs miss would probaly boost stocks since it should weaken rate hike expectations.

No comments:

Post a Comment