Energy Up, Tech Down

I'll do a longer round-up in a bit, but wanted to note XLE is hitting resistance areas again in pre-market. There is a conjunction of long-term resistance lines there.

I've talked about the 10-year yield being crucial, and energy is a component of that. There's a monster inverted head-and-shoulders pattern there. If that pattern completes, the target is $100 on XLE. A 67-percent increase from the current price. If that completes, if energy breaks out, all hell is going to break loose in the financial markets. I have weekly puts on XLE that will get stomped if XLE doesn't back off quickly, but I have a lot more in Apple weekly puts I picked up around the same time that are getting greener. As I've been doing for the past year or more, I'm persistently more bearish on technology because I see a no-win scenario. Either the pattern since 2008 holds, with commodities and markets reversing sharply right when it seems like inflation is taking off, or inflation and interest rates actually take off. The latter scenario is worse for technology and related financial assets. If energy breaks out like that chart implies, financials may also collapse like a house of cards because rates will rise too quickly, devaluing their assets faster than they can grow them with new lending. That's more speculative though. What I'm most confidence about is that tech is doomed, which is why most of my money is betting against it.