2022-02-07

Round 2 of Selling Ahead

Sooner if assets like palladium have failed breakouts. Later if it comes via crude oil rattling the bond market.
I've also noticed analysts are starting to notice the rise in credit risk. Up until this point, most of Wall Street was spewing backwards looking bullish points such as credit risk being low, corporate earnings strong and so on. The bear case has always been forward looking and, from my perspective, nearly inevitable. How are company earnings going to fare with wages, energy and interest rates rising? The bulls aren't going to see any of this coming. It'll be a steady drip of bad news as each of their bullish narratives fail. ALl their reasons for buying the dip are actually reasons to short the rip because reality is the exact opposite of their narratives. Inflation is bad for stocks, corporate earnings are going down, financing costs are going to skyrocket because interset rates and credit risk will rise simultaneously. The kicker is the Federal Reserve cannot stop it except by tightening, which is bad news for the stock maket because the stock market was the greatest beneficiary of quantitative easing. Whether the Fed knows it or not, and it seems like not, they don't actually have a choice if their goal is saving the stock market because all roads lead to lower equity prices. When you reach the top of Mount Everest, every direction is down.

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