2010-12-15

Who is selling Treasuries?

Treasury Debt Trap
I suspect the problem will rear its ugly head well before this 30% number is hit, as markets start discounting the trajectory by hiking interest rates because of poor credit quality and/or inflation (or more accurately stranguflation). Naturally that question should be asked in terms of the recent and sudden uptick in Treasury note and bond rates that appeared strongly correlated to the latest round of tax “stimulus” and handouts, and the “unexpected” reaction to QE2. The latter is nothing more than a brazen, dangerous gamble to monetize the debt. Sure the BS crowd is claiming economic growth is the causa proxima, but that feels like utter nonsense. Could it be that the markets at long last are anticipating a very bad result from QE2 and even more Gumnut largess?
Are the bond vigilantes back? These investors and traders took interest rates to nose bleed levels in the early 1980s when inflation was running high. Reading the above article brought China to mind as a possible vigilante, they certainly made their opposition to QE2 known. A lot of ink and pixels have been spilled writing about how the Chinese will one day dump their Treasury holdings. I'm actually slightly surprised to see that no one has blamed the Chinese for the rapid increase in interest rates in November and into December.

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